Straight Talk Wireless 400 Preview: Championship Clock Ticking

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This week we head to South Florida and return to Homestead-Miami Speedway for a 400-mile race on this challenging intermediate oval. The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the 1.5-mile true oval with variable banking for the first time since October of last year.  Homestead-Miami Speedway's unique configuration which includes relatively flat straight-aways of 3 degrees and 20-degree variable banked turns presents a challenge unlike any other facility on the circuit. This unique mid-sized track will be the eighth race in NASCAR's Chase for the Cup, which crowns this season's champion.

For 21 years Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the NASCAR Cup Series season finale. It was the climax of the NASCAR playoffs and where the Cup Series champion was crowned each season. The sanctioning body shook up the schedule after 2019 and moved Homestead to an early-season date. With the pandemic, we saw Homestead's new date slip into the mid-summer of 2020, but then return to early in the calendar during 2021. For the last three seasons this 400-mile event has moved closer to its old schedule slot. NASCAR returned Homestead to the playoff calendar in 2022 and made this unique oval one of the lead up races to the conclusion of the season. We haven't raced at the South Florida track for a full year so a lot of surprises await our drivers and teams this weekend. However, last season's event may have shown that Joe Gibbs Racing may have wrestled this track back from the control of Hendrick Motorsports.

Since we only come to Homestead-Miami Speedway once a year, we will need to rely on historical information to a great extent for this Sunday's race. The usual suspects perform very well at the South Florida oval, and most of them are performing well right now. While current hot streaks and similar track performance will play a modest part in this week's picks, we'll still need to review some past data to outline potential top performers for this event. Here are the loop stats for the last 19 races at Homestead.

This weekend is shaping up to be a big duel between Toyota and Chevrolet. Drivers for these two manufacturers have been vying for supremacy in recent intermediate oval races and they both won in the last five Homestead-Miami Speedway races. As you can see from the table above, there is a pretty good mix of Toyota and Chevrolet drivers at the top at Homestead. In the last Cup Series race at HMS, Christopher Bell outfoxed both Ryan Blaney and William Byron en route to the win. It was his first-career victory at the South Florida oval. After the final caution of the day, he had the solution for Blaney and Byron's challenges that afternoon and came away with the win in the 4EVER 400.    

If another driver outside of this trio hopes to steal the thunder on Sunday, it could likely be Kyle Larson. He has been strong on intermediate ovals dating back to the very beginning of the season, and he's shown a proficiency for the oval in South Florida having won there in 2022. The other group of contenders for the Homestead crown would include names like Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick. This trio was among the top performers on the intermediate sized ovals for most of this season. We'll break down all the contenders, solid plays and sleepers you need to consider to dominate your fantasy leagues at Homestead-Miami Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – Bell was in the cat bird's seat to win at Las Vegas last weekend, but he would be out maneuvered by fuel strategy and Joey Logano in last Sunday's South Point 400. We could see the Joe Gibbs Racing star have his revenge Sunday at Homestead. Bell has been pretty impressive in his last five intermediate oval starts. He has three pole positions, one victory, one runner-up finish and 372 laps led. Bell won this event one year ago and he sports a strong 10.0 average finish across his four-career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Riding some great momentum, he's poised to challenge for the win in Sunday's 400-mile playoff battle.

Kyle Larson – Larson was a bit off his A-game last weekend in Las Vegas and would finish 11th-place in the South Point 400. Fortunately, Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of his better ovals so rebounding should be pretty easy. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet likes to use the high groove at this oval and has to good effect over his career. Larson won this event two years ago and he finished runner-up at HMS in 2016. Larson's 50-percent Top-5 rate at Homestead, along with 625-career laps led, indicate he has spent a lot of time at the front at this track. He's a two-time winner on similar sized ovals this season. We suspect he'll be one of the drivers to beat in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.

William Byron – The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been dangerous in recent intermediate oval events. Byron grabbed a runner-up finish a few weeks ago in Kansas and he was a fourth-place finisher this past week in Las Vegas. That gives him plenty of cred as we come to South Florida for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster won at HMS three seasons ago, and he led 25 laps last season before finishing a strong fourth-place. Byron led 159 combined laps in his last three Homestead events. While his 50-percent Top-10 rate at Homestead-Miami Speedway is nothing impressive, we need to focus on his most recent starts. This driver and team are thick in the battle for this season's championship and will race like it Sunday in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.  

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is still alive in the championship hunt, but currently sixth-place at 20 points behind the cutoff for advancement, he has some work to do this weekend in Homestead. The 23XI Racing youngster has been zeroed-in on these mid-sized ovals of late with good speed at both Kansas and Las Vegas recently, but bad luck with those finishes. In addition, Reddick loves racing on this South Florida oval. He has three Top-5 finishes in his four Cup Series starts at the track and Reddick was a two-time winner at HMS in his Xfinity Series career. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota is a championship contender who could jump up and spoil Sunday at Homestead, but at the very least should be a face among the Top 10.    

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is coming off a disappointing finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and looking to rebound at Homestead. The good news is that Blaney has turned his season around on these intermediate ovals in the second half and kept his championship hopes alive. With Top 5's recently at Atlanta and Kansas, Blaney has the No. 12 Ford team in position to challenge for the Top 5 at Homestead. He doesn't have stellar career stats at the 1.5-mile Florida track, but he did finish a career-best runner-up in this event one year ago. It will take a victory to assure his advancement into the championship race at Phoenix, and while that's not likely, a Top-10 finish would seem to be in the cards.

Martin Truex Jr. – It wasn't flashy, and it wasn't headline making, but Truex pedaled to a quiet sixth-place finish at Las Vegas last weekend. He's been eliminated from the championship chase but is still racing hard to finish the season strong. Truex has been pretty consistent on intermediate ovals this season, and that's one part of his game that hasn't slipped much. His four Top 10's in eight starts work out to a strong 50-percent rate. Truex is a one-time Homestead winner and he's finished runner-up here on three occasions. His 12 Top-10 finishes work out to a strong 63-percent Top-10 rate at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is far from race-winning form, but he should be good enough to crack the Top 10 at one of his favorite intermediate ovals. 

Daniel Suarez – Suarez started near the back of the field last week at Las Vegas, but he had no trouble rallying to the front to lead 57 laps and finishing an impressive third-place in the South Point 400. The speed and skill were undeniable and good signs that Suarez will be competitive at Homestead-Miami Speedway this week. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has four Top-5 and six Top-15 finishes on the intermediate oval circuit in 2024 with most of those good efforts coming in the second half. Homestead is a track he's quite familiar with (seven Cup starts) and has one Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five starts to boast. While Suarez isn't involved in the playoffs, he's still racing strong and being competitive most weeks.       

Denny Hamlin – After an eighth-place finish at Vegas this past week, Hamlin sits fifth in the playoff standings coming to Homestead and looking to keep his championship hopes alive. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has three-career victories and 12 Top-10 finishes at the South Florida track. He won this event four seasons ago with the most dominant Homestead performance of his career. Hamlin led 137 laps from the pole that June afternoon in South Florida and held off Chase Elliott to collect that third-career victory at the track. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team has been strong this year on the intermediate oval circuit. Hamlin has cracked the Top 10 at a good 63-percent this season on the cookie cutter ovals and is coming off a pair of eighth-place finishes at Kansas and Vegas. He should be zeroed-in for a strong performance at one of his favorite tracks.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Miami & solid upside

Ross Chastain – After some recent inconsistency, Chastain has rallied nicely and has put together a nice string of one win and four Top 10's in the last six races as the season winds down. The Trackhouse Racing veteran finished a strong seventh-place at Las Vegas this past Sunday and signaled he's ready to carry that momentum into the Straight Talk Wireless 400. Chastain has grabbed a win (Kansas) and Top-10 finish in his last two intermediate oval events, and that's a great sign as we visit the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida. Chastain doesn't have many remarkable achievements at Homestead-Miami Speedway to this point in his career, but he did finish a Homestead career-best second-place in this event two years ago. The notes from that outing will come in very handy Sunday afternoon.

Joey Logano – This season has been a tale of inconsistency for Logano on the intermediate ovals. However, his better mid-sized tracks have produced the results. Logano punched his ticket into the championship round of the Chase with a savvy fuel mileage victory at Las Vegas this past week. This week we come to the 1.5-mile track at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Logano will continue to sharpen his sword in advance of the championship race at Phoenix. The Penske Racing star is a one-time Homestead winner (2018) and he's led close to 200-career laps at this facility. Logano's 47-percent Top-10 rate at HMS is bit low for what we like to see in a solid play driver, so that's why we've slotted Logano in the sleepers list this week. The No. 22 Ford Mustang should be competitive this Sunday afternoon.  

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been eliminated from the pursuit of this season's championship, but you wouldn't have known it based on his Top-5 performance this past Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been a strong driver on the intermediate ovals in the second half of this season. Bowman has nabbed five-straight Top-10 finishes on the cookie cutter ovals down the stretch. That has boosted his Top-10 rate on the 1.5-mile tracks to a strong 63-percent. Some fantasy players will overlook Bowman due to his lack of Homestead performance, but we would believe that would be a mistake. However, he has cracked the Top 10 in two of his last four starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. That makes Bowman a dangerous asset in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.     

Chris Buescher – Buescher totally bucked his trend on intermediate ovals with his 10th-place finish at Las Vegas this past week. It was a solid performance and a reversal of how he's performed on these 1.5-mile ovals most of the season. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver doesn't have big career stats at Homestead-Miami Speedway. However, Buescher did lead 57 laps at this track three seasons ago. In this event two years ago, he raced to a career-best 13th-place finish at HMS. We expect the potential for an even better finish this weekend in the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has had a great season so a gutsy performance is likely in the cards at Homestead-Miami Speedway. 

Chase Elliott – Elliott comes to South Florida this weekend looking to erase the disappointment of last weekend's poor finish on the Las Vegas oval. He's been pretty consistent on the cookie cutter ovals this season, so Vegas is definitely the outlier. Elliott will be making just his ninth-career start at the 1.5-mile South Florida oval. The young driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has three Top-10 finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway for a 38-percent Top-10 rate. The Hendrick Motorsports star is still alive in the championship picture but needs a maximum effort in the Straight Talk Wireless 400. That alone should spur Elliott to a Top-10 finish Sunday afternoon.

Ty Gibbs – Up until Gibbs' misfortune at Las Vegas last week, he had a pretty good roll going on the 1.5-mile tracks. The young driver has four Top-10 finishes on these style tracks in 2024 with a recent effort of fifth-place at Kansas Speedway. Gibbs led 23 laps at Las Vegas last week and looked on track to post another Top 10 until he ran into some problems. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has two prior Cup starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and one Top-10 finish in those efforts. It came in this event one year ago. Gibbs qualified ninth on the grid and earned a steady seventh-place finish. He's a driver to watch closely in his 400-mile South Florida battle.     

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch has been underperforming of late on the intermediate ovals. His 13th-place finish at Las Vegas this past week was missing time running among the leaders and was a conspicuous non-Top 10 that lacked overall speed. The Richard Childress Racing star has only one Top-10 finish in his last four 1.5-mile oval events. While the finishes have been terrible, they have been far below the standards we expect for this driver and team with a 13.5 average finish. Homestead is a track where Busch has enjoyed a lot of success over the years with two wins and a stout 58-percent Top-10 rate. However, his subpar 18th-place finish of one year ago seems to foreshadow expectations this weekend.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has better intermediate ovals in his resume than Homestead-Miami Speedway. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has no wins and a pedestrian 44-percent Top-10 rate at HMS. In the last few years, he's been batting below that rate in South Florida with just two Top-10 finishes in his last five visits to Homestead. In this event one year ago, Keselowski struggled to a 28th-place finish. The veteran driver has just two Top 10's this season on mid-sized ovals (25-percent) and he's failed to crack the Top 10 in his last three starts on the 1.5-mile tracks. Keselowski didn't qualify well at Las Vegas this past weekend and wound up caught in a multi-car crash early in the race.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The JTG Daugherty Racing driver has certainly had his fantasy utility, especially on superspeedways this season. However, the intermediate ovals haven't been as kind to the No. 47 Chevrolet team. Stenhouse has just one Top-10 finish (13-percent) in eight starts this year on 1.5-mile ovals. His last two outings have produced 28th- and 27th-place finishes at Kansas and Vegas. That has inflated his average finish on these style tracks to 20.3 for the season. Stenhouse has 12-career Cup Series starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and no Top-10 finishes to his credit. The average finish at HMS checks in at a disappointing 21.7.     

Erik Jones – Jones is in much the same boat as Stenhouse. The Legacy Motor Club veteran has struggled this season on mid-sized ovals. The veteran driver has no Top-10 finishes in seven starts this season and disappointing 23.3 average finish. He's coming off a 25th-place finish this past week at Las Vegas and that's probably a good barometer for his potential at Homestead. In seven-career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Jones has just one Top-10 finish (14-percent) and a 20.4 average finish at the South Florida oval. The driver of the No. 43 Toyota is one to pass over when filling out your weekly lineup games and salary cap games this week.