This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
If you think it's been a whirlwind in the soccer world the last couple months, think about the players. In addition to returning to league play this week, many of them took part in the UEFA Nations League for their respective countries this weekend (and beyond). Throw in Champions League and Europa League, and a lot of the top players maybe only got a week or two to relax at home (or Ibiza).
That's mainly why there are just eight matches in the Premier League's opening gameweek. Both Manchester clubs are off, but Liverpool open their title defense in Saturday's main slot and a new-look Chelsea squad open things at Brighton on Monday.
THE OPENING WEEK
Kicking off the season, Arsenal travel to Craven Cottage as a decent favorite. I normally don't recommend the Gunners, but opening a new season with Mikel Arteta in charge, things are looking up more than in the past, highlighted by the defeat of Liverpool in the Community Shield. While they added some young defenders, Willian could be the final piece that unleashes the attack with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. I think they'll open the season with a few goals, and if you don't like the -177 odds for them to win, you could also bank on their back line that hasn't had a ton of time together and bet on both them and Fulham to score at -132. These bets also correlate with my futures bets of Aubemeyang over 19.5 goals and Fulham to finish last.
For better odds, I want to play off West Ham's improved scoring and Newcastle's preseason struggles. With Michail Antonio leading the line, the Hammers scored at least three goals in three of their final seven matches last season and have scored 14 goals in four friendlies. It's been a little more difficult for Newcastle to hit the back of the net, and I don't think the recent Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser signings will make an impact in the first match. Playing at home as a +115 favorite, I'll take a chance on West Ham to win.
If you don't believe in the Hammers, you should believe that there will be goals in this matchup. West Ham are scoring, but they're giving up goals and allowed five to Bournemouth in their last friendly, while Newcastle also gave up five to Middlesbrough a week ago. Potent scoring options combined with poor defending usually leads to goals, and getting over 2.5 goals at -105 is hard to pass up.
At the least, I like it more than anything in the Liverpool v. Leeds United matchup in Saturday's main slot. Liverpool are a hefty -360 to win with over 3.5 goals at +130. That said, if you like Liverpool, taking both Mohamed Salah (+320) and Sadio Mane (+400) to score first should leave you in the positive. Leeds cruised through the Championship last season, but they haven't seen an attack like Liverpool's in a couple years.
There are only two matches Sunday, but I think you could make a couple reasonable bets, if not throw these together for a small parlay. Leicester City added some defensive reinforcement in the last month, but James Maddison still wasn't completely healthy a week before this match. I'm also banking on how they closed last season, taking three points from their final eight away matches.
As for West Brom, they have experienced Premier League players and last played in the top flight in the 2017/18 season, so not that long ago. They took points in 20 of 23 home matches in the Championship last season and will be keen to open the campaign on a good note. While +275 to win is probably too much to ask, I think West Brom to win or draw at -121 is a decent bet.
Also Sunday, the odds seem off between Tottenham and Everton. They met near the end of last season on July 6 with similar odds and while Spurs won, it came via a Michael Keane own goal. Otherwise, it was a pretty boring match in which Tottenham had 52 percent of the possession and 12 shots (two on target) compared to 11 (three on target) for Everton. Throw in what should be a healthier Everton side with new additions James Rodriguez and Allan, and Everton at +100 to win or draw seems too easy to hit. That being the case, it only makes sense for Spurs to score a couple quick ones behind a tired Harry Kane (because of national team duty) en route to an emphatic 3-0 win.
There's only one way the Wolverhampton and Sheffield United match can go and that's a draw. They combined for three goals in two meetings last season and also had 26 total draws between them, one of the higher totals for two teams. The odds highlight that at +205 to draw, but you could also take an exact score with 0-0 at +600 and 1-1 at +500. Unfortunately, the under 1.5 goals is +155, meaning there's a chance either side wins 1-0 and then you won't win any of those draw bets.
For a Monday parlay, you can grab the Wolves v. Sheffield United under 2.5 goals (-200) and Brighton/Chelsea over 2.5 goals (-137) for +159.
THE BETS
- Arsenal to win at -177
- West Ham/Newcastle over 2.5 goals at -105
- Both Mohamed Salah (+320) and Sadio Mane (+400) to score first
- West Brom -121 to win or draw
- Everton +100 to win or draw
- Parlay: Wolves/Sheffield United under 2.5 goals and Brighton/Chelsea over 2.5 goals at +150
