This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain meet Tuesday at Emirates Stadium in their fifth all-time encounter. Each club is nursing a handful of injuries to key players as they enter Matchday 2 of Champions League.
Arsenal are looking for their first victory of the 2024/2025 Champions League campaign as they hope to rebound from their scoreless draw with Atalanta. Meanwhile, PSG are hoping for back-to-back victories after their dramatic 1-0 victory over Girona in their opening match.
PSG sit 15th in the Champions League table with three points, while Arsenal lag just behind in 16th place with one point.
HEAD TO HEAD
Arsenal and PSG have met on four occasions, each in the group stage of the top European competition. In 1994, the Gunners and Les Parisiens met twice, drawing in their first match and Arsenal winning 1-0 in the second. In 2016, the two sides split their home-and-home series in the group stage with two draws.
Arsenal lead the all-time matchup by a slim margin with one win, three draws and zero losses.
ODDS
Moneyline
DraftKings: ARS -140 Draw +290, PSG +390 (PROMO CODE)
FanDuel: ARS -140 Draw +280, PSG +400 (PROMO CODE)
BetMGM: ARS -135 Draw +290, PSG +333 (BONUS CODE)
Bet365: ARS-143 Draw +280, PSG +400 (BONUS CODE)
FORMATIONS
Arsenal have continued to evolve tactically under manager Mikel Arteta. The shape of this lineup is predicated upon the ability of the two defensive midfielders, Declan Rice and Thomas Partey, being able to protect their backline. With the two stalwarts in midfield, Arteta has opted to begin matches in a base 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, depending on whether he wants to play with a striking partnership or with an attacker in the No. 10 role.
When in possession, Arsenal will push into a three-box-three shape where one of their full-backs, usually Ben White, Jurrien Timber or Riccardo Calafiori are given license to jump into the midfield and join the attack.
PSG have most commonly employed a conventional 4-3-3 under former Spain and Barcelona manager Luis Enrique. Bradley Barcola is often a focal point on the wing, young newcomer Joao Neves pulls the strings in the middle of the park and veteran full-back Achraf Hakimi covers from box-to-box down the right flank.
With Arsenal likely to employ a three-box-three approach when in possession, the impetus will fall upon PSG's central defense to aid what may be an outnumbered defensive midfield. Willian Pacho and Marquinhos have been on-field generals in organizing the defensive lines for Les Parisiens in the absence of regular contributors such as Gianluigi Donnarumma, Presnel Kimpembe, Milan Skriniar and Lucas Hernandez, who each are either out with injury or have recently returned from an injury-related absence.
Conversely, as witnessed in a six-goal track meet with Leicester City over the weekend in which they won 4-2, Arsenal can be punished on the break when committing players forward. When PSG are able to poach possession, look for Barcola and the pacey PSG attackers to run at the open spaces in a three-man Arsenal backline before the Gunners are able to solidify their defensive shape.
RECENT FORM
Arsenal (WWDDW) benefitted from two second-half stoppage-time goals in their most recent Premier League match versus Leicester in which they earned a 4-2 victory. In their opening Champions League fixture, the Gunners drew 0-0 in a cagey affair at Atalanta.
Paris Saint-Germain (WDWWW) rebounded from their first draw of the season by riding a Barcola brace to a 3-1 victory over Rennes in their most recent Ligue 1 fixture. PSG were fortunate to escape with three points form their first Champions League match versus Girona in which a 90th minute own goal handed PSG a victory and three points.
LINEUP NOTES
Arsenal
Calafiori is a doubt for the midweek tilt with PSG due to fitness concerns after starting in two successive matches for the Gunners. An alternative option would be White, but he's also a doubt with a leg injury, leaving Arteta with the unenviable decision to either adjust his tactics or include young Jakub Kiwior in the starting XI on an interim basis.
Martin Odegaard, the catalyst for the attack from North London, is weeks away from returning from an ankle injury he suffered while serving on international duty with the Norwegian national team. Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard have seen an increase in minutes since the Norwegian suffered his injury, while Mikel Merino is edging closer toward a return but Tuesday is too soon.
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG will be hopeful for impactful returns to the starting XI from Skriniar and Nuno Mendes. Skriniar returned for a brief 21-minute cameo versus Rennes over the weekend. Mendes missed Saturday's match with an illness but figures to be available to start for this contest. Kimpembe remains on the periphery of the PSG defensive rotation as he works his way back from an extended absence due to a major Achilles injury.
Ousmane Dembele will not travel to London for the match due to a manager's decision.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bukayo Saka: The expectation is that Arsenal will characteristically attempt to dominate possession while probing for the perfect opportunity to strike. With the match's result depending largely upon how Arsenal will fair in breaking down a compact PSG defensive unit, Arteta will look to get Saka as many touches as possible, allowing the creative winger to find the key pass to unlock the defense. Over seven appearances (seven starts) in all competitions, Saka has created 20 chances, scored once and provided five assists.
Warren Zaire-Emery: Zaire-Emery is a central figure for PSG as they look to find success in a post-Kylian Mbappe world. The 18-year-old academy product has made six appearances (six starts) in all competitions to begin the 2024/2025 season, breaking in as a regular member of PSG's starting XI, scoring once in Ligue 1 from a variety of positions.
The progression of Zaire-Emery's play is self-evident. The young midfielder has excelled at breaking up opponents attacking play, making 10 tackles (two won), an interception and eight clearances in all competitions. His ability to control the midfield and limit Arsenal chances in the middle of the park will be critical in determining the outcome of this match.
BETTING PICKS & PREDICTION
Man of the Match: Kai Havertz
With Arsenal expected to dominate possession playing at home, I anticipate the PSG defense holding a deeper line in an attempt to stave off the Arsenal attack. As Arsenal circulate the ball and probe for an opening, Havertz's central positioning and large stature will make him the focal point for passes and crosses entering the penalty area. After scoring versus Leicester over the weekend, I expect an in-form Havertz to take his chances versus a depleted PSG backline.
PSG will likely look to use their defending as a platform to spring their talented attackers quickly when possession changes hands. With Arsenal likely to commit a defender to the midfield while in possession, PSG's pace in the frontline will weigh heavily upon whether they're able to earn a share of the points at Emirates Stadium.
Result: Arsenal 2 - Paris Saint-Germain 0
UPCOMING UCL FIXTURES
Arsenal: Oct. 22 vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
Paris Saint-Germain: Oct. 22 vs. PSV Eindhoven
