DFS Soccer: DraftKings Showdown Preview for PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund

DFS Soccer: DraftKings Showdown Preview for PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

PSG are down 1-0 on aggregate and are fairly large favorites to beat Dortmund at home. They have just above a 65-percent implied win probability and an implied goal total north of two.

3:00 pm: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Borussia Dortmund

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Cheat Sheet

PSG TEAM PREVIEW

It's expected to be a near-identical starting XI for PSG as in the first leg, with Beraldo starting in place of the injured Lucas Hernandez.

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK$7,000The path for Donnarumma to get saves in this match relies on early goals from PSG that force Dortmund to push. 
Nuno MendesD$5,000Mendes is starting to get priced up where he should be. He mostly scored based on defensive stats in the reverse fixture. 
Lucas BeraldoD$4,000Both PSG center-backs seem like fine salary-relief options, especially in 1-0 PSG lineups.
MarquinhosD$3,600 
Achraf HakimiD$6,200Somehow, Hakimi has been priced down, but the game environment has improved for him. He scored 10 floor points in the reverse fixture and is a top overall play.
VitinhaM$7,800Vitinha's price is unchanged from last week. He got into some great positions in the reverse fixture. He's a good GPP option if you can afford him.
Fabian RuizM$5,400 
Warren Zaire-EmeryM$4,600 
Bradley BarcolaF$7,600Barcola is a talented young player, but PSG will likely have a lot of attackers on their bench, so 65 or so minutes seem likely yet again. 
Ousmane DembeleM/F$12,000Dembele received a bit of a price increase. He played 90 minutes in the reverse fixture and took a couple corners. I'd like to play him, but he needs a goal or a lot of set pieces to pay off this price.
Kylian MbappeF$12,800Mbappe is at the maximum possible price. With his shot-based floor and goalscoring odds in this game script, he is still a top play overall.

PSG have had a full week of rest and didn't play over the weekend. Mbappe and Dembele are top options despite high price tags. I think the game environment is too much to pass up, especially if Dortmund defend effectively for long portions of the match. Fortunately, secondary pieces like Hakimi are still reasonably priced. 

Dembele should take most set pieces in this lineup, but substitutes Kang-In Lee and Marco Asensio might take some corners or free kicks if they come on in the final phases of the match. 

BORUSSIA DORTMUND TEAM PREVIEW

Dortmund only have a 14.5-percent implied win probability and an implied goal total barely above one. Even though they won 1-0 at home last week, they conceded 1.7 expected goals to PSG, which suggests that they were somewhat fortunate to keep a clean sheet (PSG hit the post numerous times). 

Dortmund elected to play on the counterattack at home and PSG had 57-percent possession. It's likely Dortmund will look to primarily defend on the road in Paris and possession numbers might get even more skewed. 

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Gregor KobelGK$4,200Kobel is a good play in all formats with his save upside since PSG need to score. As always with goalkeeper, he could end up in the negatives. 
Ian MaatsenD$4,800He took a free kick in the reverse fixture, but I'm not interested in Maatsen in this matchup.
Nico SchlotterbeckD$3,000I wouldn't count on another assist like last match, though you might need Schlotterbeck to afford both Mbappe and Dembele. 
Mats HummelsD$3,800 
Julian RyersonD$4,400 
Marcel SabitzerM$5,800In cash games I'd rather play Hakimi and Ruiz because of game script, but Sabitzer isn't prohibitively expensive.
Emre CanM$3,400 
Karim AdeyemiM/F$5,600Adeyemi has been discounted heavily from last week where he played 83 minutes. He was extremely influential defensively and has loads of pace. 
Julian BrandtM$8,600Brandt took corners on both sides of the pitch in the reverse fixture. You cannot expect Dortmund to get too many corners in this matchup, however.
Jadon SanchoM/F$6,400Sancho scored 8.1 floor points last week and was rested over the weekend, like many of Dortmund's regulars, but he didn't take any set pieces in the first leg. 
Niclas FullkrugF$8,400He's worth rostering as the penalty taker, but he is expensive given Dortmund's implied goal total.

Dortmund rotated their entire team over the weekend and destroyed Augsburg 5-1. Their regular starters are effectively as well rested as the PSG players. Brandt was the primary set-piece taker in the reverse fixture, but he seems too expensive in a match where Dortmund aren't expected to possess the ball. 

CASH-GAME STRATEGY

Cash games are simultaneously tricky and straightforward. They are straightforward in the sense that I think it is optimal to captain Mbappe or Dembele, and I think Hakimi is underpriced and should be one of the most popular flex plays. You aren't left with much salary for the other flex spots, so you'll be spending down there.

The tricky part is that I am not sure which of Mbappe or Dembele is the better captain. Initially, I lean towards Mbappe. He has a strong shot-based floor, good anytime goalscoring odds and I think if Mbappe scores a goal he is likely to outscore Dembele. On the other hand, Dembele played 90 minutes in the reverse fixture and has a decent ceiling himself to pair with set pieces. The extra salary opens up some interesting flex combinations not available to Mbappe captainers.

I'm also unsure which combination of flex players I like best. I think Mendes is a good option at his price if you can afford him. He hasn't shown much attacking chops since returning from injury, but I still think he's capable of contributing in a good game script. Marquinhos is the cheapest available PSG center-back, which makes him playable.

Schlotterbeck and Can are playable on salary consideration alone, but I don't think either has a ceiling. In these sorts of matchups, I'd really like to find the extra $800 I need to play Kobel. He should see a lot of save opportunities and he seems like the player priced under $5,000 most likely to score more than eight fantasy points.

TOURNAMENT STRATEGY

Mbappe and Dembele aren't cheap, but I'm also not too keen on fading them in GPPs. Anything is possible in tournaments, but they are excellent plays in just about all game scripts for PSG. For me, tournament strategy will center around the most effective ways to afford the two of them in my lineup while having some type of rostership leverage in tournaments.

While I think Hakimi is a top option, I also think he will be fairly popular, so you can consider lineup constructions that use an alternative PSG attacker. On the other hand, I think Hakimi is a fantastic captain choice. He is capable of contributing goals and assists and has a solid floor. His price allows you to play a variety of PSG and Dortmund combinations that are impossible to play with an expensive captain choice. 

Lineup Ideas (GPP only)

Hakimi CPT - Dembele - Mbappe: This is a robust lineup construction and my personal favorite start for GPPs. I think it will be somewhat popular, but you have plenty of room in the rest of your lineup spots to play unique combinations of players. This start works for all sorts of game scripts, ranging from 1-0 results for PSG to matches where Brandt or Fullkrug score a goal.

Dembele CPT - Mbappe - Vitinha: This start tries to play PSG attackers in lower-rostered combinations. I think the high and similar price tags for Dembele and Mbappe will result in Mbappe being a slightly more popular captain choice in tournaments. Dembele certainly has the potential to keep up with Mbappe and post big scores himself. Options like Barcola and Vitinha aren't likely to be highly rostered.  

Kobel CPT - Mbappe - Dembele: I don't think it's likely that Dortmund keep a clean sheet and I don't think you need that to happen for Kobel to put up big scores. You could play multiple additional PSG outfielders in this type of lineup with the idea that they all rack up shots assisted and shots on target that Kobel saves. As long as no single individual player gets too large a score for PSG, this construction has a chance.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jack Burkart plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: NewYorkValues, FanDuel: NewYorkValues, Yahoo: NewYorkValues.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jack Burkart
Jack covers fantasy soccer for RotoWire and has twice won the FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year award (2022 & '23). He is a Minnesota Loons fan and long-suffering Tottenham Hotspur supporter.
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