DraftKings DFS Soccer: UCL Picks for Wednesday, March 8

MATCHES (ET)

• 3:00 pm: Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain
• 3:00 pm: Tottenham Hotspur vs. AC Milan

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Cheat Sheet

FORWARDS

Lionel Messi (PSG at BAY, $9,200): Neymar is out for the season due to an ankle injury, so the PSG attack is going to get funneled through Messi and Kylian Mbappe ($9,400). PSG are in the unenviable position of being down 1-0 to Bayern on aggregate, but they will be forced to attack and Messi will be on a majority of set pieces without Neymar. Mbappe may take a stray corner or free kick, but you are primarily playing him for goals and a potential floor based on shots. Even as underdogs, I think the PSG attackers offer more value than the Bayern forwards in cash games. None have a floor of set pieces, and it is almost a guarantee that whoever starts does not go a full 90 minutes. At the same time, from a ceiling point of view, it would be naive to not target potential Bayern goalscorers as home favorites in tournaments. Thomas Muller ($7,100) seems to be the attacking option playing at least 80 minutes recently. He has been in good form in league play, but he has almost no floor. Jamal Musiala ($7,200) has one 90-minute appearance since Bayern's first leg against PSG, and Kingsley Coman ($8,900) tore them apart in that leg, as well, despite only playing 75 minutes. 

Son Heung-Min (TOT vs. ACM, $7,800): While it's frustrating that Son will not take all of Tottenham's set pieces if Ivan Perisic starts, I think his price reflects that he's not a monopoly set-piece taker. Spurs have to score a goal and are playing at home, so I think he is a solid second forward choice in cash games despite his frustrating recent form. Harry Kane ($8,200) is the slate's most likely goal scorer, according to the odds. I think he'll be very popular for this reason and he offers solid savings off of Mbappe for better goalscoring odds.

Since AC Milan are underdogs and will likely be more defensive with a 1-0 lead, I think their forwards are best reserved for tournaments. Olivier Giroud ($6,700) and Rafael Leao ($7,500) are both solid choices, but they are priced quite closely to the Bayern and Spurs forwards. One cheap option from Milan you can try is Charles De Ketelaere ($4,600) if he starts. He is a boom-bust option, but he is cheap for his attacking role and gives you more salary for your other lineup spots. It helps that he is also midfield eligible and Spurs certainly have plenty of history this season allowing opportunities to visiting sides.

MIDFIELDERS

Joshua Kimmich (FCB vs. PSG, $8,100): Kimmich feels a bit expensive, even if Bayern are home favorites. Most of his value comes from his monopoly of Bayern's set pieces, but I am not sure how many opportunities he will see with Bayern up a goal on aggregate. At the same time, the midfield position is quite weak on this slate and if PSG score early, Kimmich stands to benefit from Bayern being required to attack. I feel like I can still afford quality defenders and forwards in cash games with Kimmich rostered and he offers a reliable route into Bayern's attack.

Ivan Perisic (TOT vs. ACM, $6,900): While I am skeptical of Tottenham being favored against Milan at home, I was also skeptical of Chelsea being similar home favorites against an in-form Dortmund side Tuesday. Spurs have to chase this match and Perisic will have a split of Tottenham's set pieces if he starts. At cost, he seems like a strong choice in cash games. Sandro Tonali ($5,300) will likely split set pieces if he starts for Milan, but he is an uninspiring option in tournaments playing as a defensive midfielder. I'd prefer to play Alexis Saelemaekers ($5,100) in GPPs if I want exposure to the Milan attack, should he start. Leon Goretzka ($5,800) is expensive for a more defensive midfielder, but he has been averaging over two shots per 90 minutes in Champions League and Bundesliga matches this season.

PSG will probably start three central midfielders and the options we expect to start supply solid punt options for a utility or second midfield spot if you need it. Warren Zaire-Emery ($3,500) has shown some limited-yet-promising upside in five Ligue 1 starts, while Fabian Ruiz ($3,600) is more likely to play a full 90 minutes and rack up tackles won and interceptions.  

DEFENDERS

Theo Hernandez (TOT vs. ACM, $6,100): Similar to how I feel with Kimmich, I think Hernandez is a bit expensive. He will likely have to defend more than usual against Spurs at home, but his partial set-piece role offers some value. In tournament lineups where I use Kane and Son, I definitely plan on using Hernandez as a bring-back since he should see plenty of attacking opportunities in game scripts where Spurs score early. Ultimately, I think he is a luxury compared to the defenders I will mention below, but I also think he should still be an important figure in your tournament lineup construction. Emerson ($5,500) doesn't have the benefit of set pieces, but if Tottenham have to push for most of the game, that should be good for his offensive output.

Nuno Mendes (PSG at BAY, $4,300): Normally, I think the PSG wing-backs tend to be overpriced since most of the attacking value comes from Neymar, Mbappe and Messi. However, without Neymar, I think PSG will need to rely a bit more on Mendes and Nordi Mukiele ($4,100) to create opportunities in attack. Alphonso Davies ($4,700) seems like a solid value, as well, for Bayern. He may have to spend more time defending, but if PSG commit too many players forward he could see some solid counter-attacking opportunities on the left flank. The opportunity cost at the defender position is quite low in comparison to the other positions, so I think it is completely fine to hunt for a center-back goal. You can also punt a defender spot and correlate it with your goalkeeper.

GOALKEEPER

Mike Maignan (MIL at TOT, $4,100): Bayern are the biggest favorite of the slate, making Yann Sommer ($5,400) the most expensive goalkeeper option. Spurs actually have the better clean sheet odds, so Fraser Forster ($5,200) is technically a value. However, I have little confidence in Spurs' defense and this feels like a perfectly fine slate to spend all the way down at goalkeeper. Maignan should see some save opportunities and I think the extra salary savings he provides are worth it to strengthen other parts of your lineup.