DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Pohang Steelers v. Busan I'Park Showdown Preview

First things first: I know nothing about the K League. Thankfully, there are a number of very helpful resources that can give us some additional depth on the league, including many in English (I don't speak Korean). The best resource I've found is KLeagueUnited.com, who not only have some excellent preseason team previews but also match previews. It's also worth mentioning that this is the opening weekend of the 2020 season, so any game logs shown on DraftKings are from last season.

Any attempt to preview this match is going to come from what's over at K League United, so if you're interested in the detailed breakdown, I recommend checking it out here (go ahead, give them the click) and following Todd Wilde, who wrote it, on Twitter. Additionally, you can find the Pohang Steelers season preview here, written by Paul Neat, and the Busan I'Park one here, written by Tomas Marcantonio.  

Pohang is a -106 home favorite against Busan, who are newly promoted to the K League this season. The match is not expected to be high scoring, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at +100 and under 2.5 -125 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which feels a bit surprising given that Busan are a side that likes to attack as much as possible, including at the expense of their defense; they led K League 2 with 72 goals in 36 matches last season, when they finished second in the table, but also allowed 47, the same number as the sixth-place Jeonnan Dragons and ninth-place Daejon Citizen, in the 10-team league. Then again, Pohang scored and allowed 49 goals in 38 games last season while finishing fourth in the 12-team K League 1 table, so it seems the oddsmakers are not expecting them to be able to take advantage of Busan's likely defensive lapses despite their preference to counter-attack. This is a completely unresearched statement, but Busan feel a bit like Norwich City in the Premier League this season: a promoted side that got there thanks to their attacking prowess and decided that was still their best way to compete. Given their abilities in that respect, it shouldn't be surprising if they do find the back of the net, with DK Sportsbook agreeing with their -127 odds for both teams to score versus -104 for only one or neither.

The most expensive player on the slate is Aleksandar Palocevic ($11,200), who could still be the most popular player and most popular captain despite costing $16,800 with the 1.5x multiplier. As the no. 10 and expected set-piece taker for a home favorite, Paloevic has just the right stats in his game log to make him attractive on DraftKings, with plenty of instances of multiple shots, shots assisted, crosses and fouls drawn, not to mention goals and assists. There should be some available value plays that could make Palocevic easier to captain, but even if he's not used with the multiplier, he makes for an excellent flex play simply because of his active production. That applies to both cash games and GPPs, especially since he has the second-highest anytime goal scorer odds in the match. Unfortunately, +230 isn't great.

The player with the best goal scorer odds is teammate Stanislav Iljutcenko ($9,600), who, based on his game log, isn't much of a crosser, doesn't draw many fouls and does very little defensive work, which isn't surprising for a striker. At +150 odds, Iljutcenko makes sense as an option for tournaments, but he's an expensive partner with Palocevic, as you're left with an average of $5,900 for four roster spots if you captain the latter and $6,100 with the former. There is no requirement to captain either of them, but you're missing out on solid points if one of them ends up as the highest-scoring player.

A cheaper way into the Pohang attack is right winger Manuel Palacios ($8,000), who had nine goals and four assists in K League 2 last season. He has the third-highest anytime goal scorer odds (+260) on the team and obviously provides a decent discount from Iljutcenko while theoretically providing a higher attacking floor simply because of his position on the wing. The other wing brings up an interesting situation, with Song Min-Kyu ($7,400) likely starting ahead of Kim Sang-Won ($3,200) because he's 20 years old. Really. Thanks to the K League United match preview, I learned that every K League 1 team has to start a player under 22 years old if they want to have three substitutions, and while Kim led K League 2 in assists last season, he may not be able to show his talents on the wing in the opening match. Meanwhile, Sim Sang-Min ($7,000) is expected to start at left-back, where Kim played last season for FC Anyang, with Pohang likely using Kim more as an attacking winger when he does start. Based on his price and position, Kim figures to be very highly owned if he does make the first XI. For those who prefer to focus on floor over ceiling, Sim may be a better play than both Palacios and Song, as he appears to have solid production from crosses and fouls drawn, plus some shots assisted from time to time. Unfortunately, he doesn't shoot at all, so his upside won't match his teammates'. Kim Yong-Hwan ($6,200) is expected to start on the other side, but his attacking consistency doesn't match Sim's.

We could also theoretically get some crosses from Brandon O'Neill ($4,200), but most of his A League crosses came from set pieces, and he seems unlikely to get those because of Palocevic. Nevertheless, he's not immune to attacking, and he makes for a potential pay-down option for a home favorite.

Consideration for Busan players likely starts with Romulo ($10,400), and not just because he's their most expensive player. The left-footed Brazilian plays a big role for the side, including taking penalties, and he could still be highly owned despite his high price. If we're thinking this match doesn't produce a ton of fantasy points, particularly from goals, it makes sense to pay up for both Palocevic and Romulo because of their expected high floors. Romulo's +290 goal odds aren't great, but they are the second-highest among expected Busan starters, trailing only striker Gustavo Vintecinco ($7,800), who is likely to get the call ahead of Lee Jeong-Hyeob ($7,600) because of fitness issues. Vintecinco, who scored nine of Ansan Greeners' 46 goals in K League 2 last season, isn't likely to make a big splash unless he finds the back of the net, and it seems more prudent to focus on players who might score a goal and end up with more than 12 fantasy points.

One of those players is winger Lee Dong-Jun ($6,000), the K League 2 MVP last season after scoring 13 goals and picking up seven assists, very impressive marks for a wide player. Again, Busan are a team that likes to attack, so we shouldn't expect them to play defensively just because they moved up a division and are playing a top-four (from last season) side. A winger of Lee's production certainly shouldn't be ignored, with the only slight hesitation that he will start on the same wing as Romulo, so you're really hoping Busan get all of their production from that side of the pitch. If you're going to fade Romulo, doing so with Lee makes the most sense.

The other side provides a potential value option in Kwon Hyeok-Kyu ($3,000), Busan's likely u22 starter. I've seen multiple projected lineups that have him in, but there's no consensus about whether he'll start in the forward three or midfield. It probably doesn't matter at his price, but he'll be a popular play if he is in that front attacking trio. There is also a possibility that Kim Jin-Gyu ($3,600) starts opposite Romulo, and he should garner plenty of interest in we don't get Kwon starting at all because he'll be the key cheap attacker.

Busan are expected to start Yoon Suk-Young ($5,000) and Kim Moon-Hwan ($5,400) at their fullback spots, but neither offer enough of a floor where they should be prioritized over one of the sub-$4,000 midfielders, if we get them.

With not many goals expected, both goalkeepers could certainly be considered, especially Pohang's Kang Hyeon-Mu ($6,800) with the expectation that Busan will attack like they normally do but won't garner enough serious challenges to ruin his clean sheet. That being said, goalkeeper is a highly variant position that usually doesn't pay off in low-scoring matches if both teams score, but a scoreless draw would theoretically make Kang and Busan's Kim Ho-Jun ($4,400) GPP-winning contributors.