DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Thursday World Cup Picks

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11:00 a.m. (EDT)

The World Cup opens Thursday as Russia, the host nation, faces off against Saudi Arabia, widely considered one of the worst teams in the tournament. Not only do they have the second-best odds to be eliminated in the group stage, they also have the the best odds to finish at the bottom of the group and the second-best odds to finish as the lowest-scoring team. Needless to say, you probably shouldn't load up on Saudi Arabia for Thursday's showdown slate.

That being said, Russia have been pretty poor over the past few years, and they likely wouldn't have even qualified for the World Cup if they weren't hosting it. The fact they are favored to advance out of the group is likely only because the tournament is on home soil, and they are actually a pretty popular choice to finish third and become the second nation ever to host and not make the knockout rounds (South Africa in 2010 was the first). But again, they are playing arguably the worst team in the tournament, so it wouldn't be surprising to see people stacking Russians.

With the under-2.5 goals coming in at -154 on bet365, fantasy players will likely need lots of peripheral stats for their points. Russia's set-piece situation isn't a monopoly, but we can be fairly confident it'll be at least one of Yuri Zhirkov ($9,500) or Aleksandr Samedov ($12,800). Zhirkov isn't a prolific crosser in open play, so he'll need to get enough corners to raise his fantasy floor, and he doesn't draw many fouls, win many tackles, intercept many passes or take many shots. Samedov is obviously much more expensive, but he will actually cross in open play and take a few shots. It's not overly productive, as he averaged 1.7 shots, including 0.4 on goal, 4.3 crosses and 1.2 chances created per 90 minutes in the Russian Premier League this past season, but the matchup against Saudi Arabia is one where he can attack more.

Alexander Golovin ($9,800) could be a popular pick because he's one of Russia's best young players (he's 22) and is coming off a season when he averaged 2.8 shots, including 1.6 on goal, 2.5 crosses, 2.6 fouls drawn and 1.6 chances created per 90 minutes for CSKA Moscow. He may not be on set pieces, but that sure seems like a more attractive line than Zhirkov will provide, especially with the possibility that Samedov could get all the set pieces.

If you're looking for goals -- and remember, there aren't expected to be many -- then the attention turns to Fedor Smolov ($13,300), who finished second in goals during the most recent Russian Premier League season and averaged 4.5 shots, including 1.6 on goal, and 1.7 chances created per 90 minutes. The stats are nice, but paying $13,300 requires a goal, and possibly two, unless he finishes with at least five shots, including a few on goal, and the match ends scoreless or a score-draw with two own goals.

You could probably make a case for most Russian players because they are such big favorites, though paying up for Mario Fernandes ($9,100) and his four crosses versus what you'll get out of Fedor Kudryashov ($7,300) on the other side doesn't seem worth it.

In fact, I might be interested in rostering more than one Saudi Arabian player even though they are such big underdogs. The odds have them only getting around two or three corners for the entire game, but if you want to play the Saudi set-piece game, then Taiser Al Jassam is your guy for only $7,000. Unfortunately, he's not really a big open-play crosser (not that we're expecting Saudi Arabia to have a ton of possession to be lobbing balls in), though he was responsible for creating some chances during qualifying. Another Saudi player who sticks out is Salman Al Faraj ($6,400), who has also taken some corners recently, though it's possible he lines up as a defensive midfielder, which limits his open-play attacking upside. Then again, there probably won't be much open-play attacking upside for most Saudi Arabian players.

Leading the line for the Saudis will be either Fahad Al Muwallad ($7,200) or Mohammed Al Sahlawi ($6,900), the latter of whom scored 16 goals during World Cup qualifying, matching Poland's Robert Lewandowski for the world-wide lead. That sounds really impressive, but it's worth noting eight of Al Sahlawi's 16 goals came in two games against Timor-Leste, a 7-0 win in September 2015 and a 10-0 win two months later. Looking for more recent goals, Al Jassam scored against Germany last week while Yahya Al Shehri ($6,600) bagged one against Italy in May and another against Algeria a few weeks prior. Unfortunately, the Saudis have been spreading their goals around, so it's not like we can even focus on one key attacker who may get loose behind the fairly poor Russian back line. It's probably best to stick with Al Jassam, and maybe Al Faraj, and then roster some Russian attackers who will be hoping to break out in their easiest match of the tournament.

Goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev ($8,800) could also be in consideration because of Russia's win and clean sheet odds, but the defense in front of him is poor enough that I'll probably pass on rostering the ninth-most expensive player even with those potential win and shutout bonus points.