DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Picks

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

MATCHES (EDT)

THE CHALK

Lionel Messi, BAR v. FCS ($11,800): Messi is super expensive and on a slate with plenty of superstars (it is the Champions League, after all), but he figures to still be very popular because not only are Barcelona -1667 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, but Messi is -335 to score one goal and +170 to score at least two. Adding to Messi's case is that he's on more set pieces this season, taking 15 of their 23 corners in La Liga play, and he's crossing them, averaging 4.75 crosses per 90 minutes in his four league games after averaging 3.56 last season, which was his previous career-high.

Christopher Nkunku, RBL v. IBB ($6,800): RB Leipzig are the second-biggest favorite on the slate, and while they aren't nearly as big as Barcelona (-435 to beat Istanbul Basaksehir), it's still a match that's expected to be one sided. Nkunku takes a decent number of their set pieces, and given how he's relatively cheap and fills a forward spot, many fantasy players could move toward him in cash games. That being said, UEFA.com is not predicting him in the starting XI, which would actually make one of his teammates very chalky in cash games...

Angelino, RBL v. IBB ($5,900):

MATCHES (EDT)

THE CHALK

Lionel Messi, BAR v. FCS ($11,800): Messi is super expensive and on a slate with plenty of superstars (it is the Champions League, after all), but he figures to still be very popular because not only are Barcelona -1667 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, but Messi is -335 to score one goal and +170 to score at least two. Adding to Messi's case is that he's on more set pieces this season, taking 15 of their 23 corners in La Liga play, and he's crossing them, averaging 4.75 crosses per 90 minutes in his four league games after averaging 3.56 last season, which was his previous career-high.

Christopher Nkunku, RBL v. IBB ($6,800): RB Leipzig are the second-biggest favorite on the slate, and while they aren't nearly as big as Barcelona (-435 to beat Istanbul Basaksehir), it's still a match that's expected to be one sided. Nkunku takes a decent number of their set pieces, and given how he's relatively cheap and fills a forward spot, many fantasy players could move toward him in cash games. That being said, UEFA.com is not predicting him in the starting XI, which would actually make one of his teammates very chalky in cash games...

Angelino, RBL v. IBB ($5,900): Angelino is expected to start at his regular left wing-back position and would surely have a big share of set pieces if Nkunku doesn't play (or at least not start). The team-leader in crosses, Angelino's price is simply way too low for his production (he's also scored in back-to-back Bundesliga games), especially considering RB Leipzig's excellent clean sheet odds.

FORWARDS

Angel Di Maria, PSG v. MUN ($9,300): Di Maria, who is currently serving a four-match Ligue 1 ban, figures to get the start against Manchester United, who will be without starting center-back Harry Maguire due to a knock. The obvious place to look when starting with PSG is Neymar ($11,500) and Kylian Mbappe ($11,000), but given the salary savings with Di Maria, plus his shared role of corners, he makes for a valuable cash-game option. He certainly has GPP upside as well, though it's tough to argue it's higher than his two superstar attacking teammates.

Antoine Griezmann, BAR v. FCS ($5,900): What if I told you there was a forward for a -1667 favorite that is also +110 to score more than 3.5 goals and only five expected starters had higher anytime goal scorer odds? Is that someone you might be interested in? If you're a blind faith fantasy player then Griezmann is your guy Tuesday. Looking any deeper will surely make you turn away, as he's taken just five shots, including one on goal, created zero chances, sent in zero crosses and drawn three fouls over 264 minutes in four starts in La Liga this season, but sometimes you need to look beyond the actual fantasy production and simply play the matchup and price.

MIDFIELDERS

Benjamin Bourigeaud, REN v. KRA ($7,800): Rennes aren't big favorites at home against Krasnodor, but they are one of only two undefeated teams in Ligue 1 this season and Bourigeaud has been doing it all since Raphinha left for the Premier League. He's their dominant set-piece taker, and while he's priced as such, he comes in much cheaper than the options from Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain (not as much RB Leipzig, which was discussed earlier). The difficulty with buying into this match is that it has the lowest total on the slate, but Bourigeaud provides an excellent floor for cash games, while GPP players could go up slightly for Emil Forsberg ($8,000) or Philippe Coutinho ($8,400), especially given their dominant win odds.

Giovanni Reyna, BVB at LAZ ($5,100): Reyna has been excellent in Bundesliga play this season, including a solid role on set pieces that would make him an attractive pay-down option Tuesday against Lazio. Dortmund are slightly favored in the match, and while it's expected to be close, it has the third-highest implied goal total. Jadon Sancho ($6,900) is priced high enough where he's definitely a GPP play if this game really goes off, but Reyna's price, not to mention his averages of 1.86 shots, 5.31 crosses, 2.12 chances created and 3.45 fouls drawn per 90 minutes this season, makes him a very solid cash-game piece.

Tyler Adams, RBL v. IBB ($3,000): Adams could start as a right wing-back for a -435 favorite and he's minimum price. That's it.

DEFENDERS

Sergino Dest, BAR v. FCS ($4,600): Dest was solid in his starting debut this past weekend, sending in five crosses and creating two chances in a 1-0 loss. He figures to be able to get involved much more in the attack Tuesday given Barcelona are such giant favorites. We could also get Junior Firpo ($3,100) in the starting XI if Barcelona decide to rest Sergi Roberto ($4,500) after playing this past weekend, and you have to figure he'll be really popular at that price with his fantastic matchup.

Mitchell Bakker, PSG v. MUN ($3,400): There is some speculation that Layvin Kurzawa ($3,900) could start in place of the injured Juan Bernat, especially since he is well rested while being suspended for Ligue 1 play due to his role in a fight earlier this season. However, Bakker has started the past five league games for PSG and has been a solid fantasy scorer, accumulating points with crosses, chances created, tackles won and interceptions. While the matchup against Manchester United is not as easy as what Barcelona and RB Leipzig face, PSG are still the third-biggest favorite and Bakker would be a tremendous value given his low price. 

GOALKEEPER

Bono, SFC at CHE ($4,300): While the Chelsea attack has a ton of very good attacking weapons, they're coming up against a strong Sevilla defense that allowed three goals in their first four La Liga matches this season. There is an argument to be made for Matvey Safonov ($4,100) of FC Krasnador because he's the cheaper goalkeeper in the match with the lowest implied total, but the Russian side really hasn't been good defensively in league play. And there will certainly be people who tempt their fates with David de Gea ($3,900), or whoever starts for Manchester United against Paris Saint-Germain because it feels a little easier to stomach than going with Fehmi Mert Gunok ($3,700) as a +1150 underdog or Denes Dibusz ($3,600), who is +3500.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is a nine-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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