This article is part of our Football Picks series.
The second legs of the UEFA Europa League Round of 16 features some interesting ties Thursday.
Roma hold a one-goal advantage over Athletic Bilbao, Lyon are leading FCSB 3-1, and Eintracht Frankfurt are back home with a 2-1 lead. There is everything to play for because for most of these teams, this is their final shot at a trophy this season.
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UEFA Europa League Best Bets
Betting on Athletic Club vs. Roma
Athletic Bilbao weren't that bad in the first leg, but a red card cost them and Roma scored in the dying moments.
Athletic have been good in La Liga this season. They're effective out of possession and they've turned opponents over in the midblock, which leads to transitions.
They are second, only behind Barcelona, in danger zone losses forced and third in progressive passes allowed. Roma are likely going to hand possession over to them with a one goal lead, but Athletic's ability to not allow them to effectively play direct is going to give them a big advantage.
Before the red card in the 85th minute last week, Athletic outshot Roma 16 to six and was winning the xG battle 1.2 to 0.63.
I like the value on them on the moneyline at -110.
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Betting on Lyon vs. FCSB
Lyon hold a two-goal advantage and are laying a pretty big number at home.
They held 66-percent possession in the first leg, but one of Lyon's biggest problems for a long time has been their transition defense. Even though Paulo Fonseca is in the stands for the next nine months, his tactical blueprint remains in which the team plays open and creates transition based matches.
The other interesting aspect of the first leg was how much Lyon struggled to deal with crosses. Lucas Perri was called into action to make a couple of ridiculous saves early to keep Lyon level.
Of course, the quality of Lyon took over eventually to give them the advantage, but FCSB scored their lone goal off a cross.
The Romanian side have to be aggressive and go for it, and I like the value on them to score in this match at +110.
Betting on Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Ajax
Frankfurt matches have been crazy this season. In the Bundesliga, they're averaging close to 3.5 expected goals per 90 minutes and scoring hasn't dropped off even though Omar Marmoush is now at Manchester City.
They hold a one-goal advantage in this tie, which means this match is about to be even more crazy. Ajax have been much more controlled and less chaotic under Francesco Farioli this season and it's led them to first place in the Eredivisie. However, they have to be aggressive in the second leg to have a chance to advance.
Frankfurt often try to press high out of a 4-4-2 but are completely ineffective at doing so. They're 18th in the Bundesliga in PPDA and 15th in danger zone losses forced. That has caused them to allow 1.54 xG per 90 minutes domestically.
They allowed 1.5 expected goals in the first leg and will likely allow more in the second leg.
I like the value on Ajax Team Total over over 1.5 goals at +175.
Europa League Betting Picks & Tips
- Athletic Club Moneyline against Roma (-110)
- FCSB Team Total Over 0.5 against Lyon (+110)
- Ajax Team Total Over 1.5 against Frankfurt (+175)
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