This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
European play returned this week, which means there's more of a chance of rotation for league matches, though it's nothing to bet on. While there are times I bet early in the week to get a better number, it's sometimes best to wait if you're taking a certain side, as there's no guarantee what side a manager will use with an eye toward advancement in Champions and Europa League.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris discuss four matches ahead of the weekend with Adam coming off a 4-0 week.
Record: 50-36-1. Up $1,610 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Brentford
Brentford -.5 corners in the first half against Crystal Palace -120
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Crystal Palace have been disappointing since the World Cup break and they've been inconsistent all season. You never know how they'll play in a certain matchup and as of late, they've just been bad against everyone.
On the opposite side, Brentford haven't lost a league match since the break and they continually push their motives at home, often from the start. There's always the chance Patrick Vieira suddenly has a motivated team, but I'll side with the consistent side at home in Brentford.
Instead of taking them on the moneyline or even to score, I'll grab Brentford to have more corners in the first half at -120, something that's losing value by the day.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Newcastle
Under 2.5 goals scored between Newcastle and Liverpool +105
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I'm doubling up on Chris Owen's bet from Kits & Wagers, as I think this is a low-scoring, tight match throughout. Newcastle have injuries and suspensions in their midfield, which won't allow them to control possession like usual at home, while Liverpool are still figuring things out despite coming off three points in the Merseyside derby.
I don't think Liverpool get their counterattacking goals in this one and I'm not sure either team will get great opportunities. In the end, both teams are probably fine with a scoreless draw, while 1-0 and 1-1 are also in play, so I'm going under 2.5 goals at +105.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Brighton
Single-game parlay: Under 3.5 goals and Brighton over 4.5 corners against Fulham +100
It's a tough week of betting for me, as a lot of the numbers are tight and I'm already four bets deep in Kits & Wagers. I also think a lot of these matches are in the 1-1 range and that usually makes it difficult to find good numbers and good bets.
That led me to a match that should go the way as expected with Brighton controlling things against Fulham. Brighton are on the front foot against most opponents, especially at home, but I don't think the goals will come in bunches. Brighton are struggling to score despite loads of opportunities, while Aleksandar Mitrovic isn't 100 percent and Willian is battling a knock to his calf.
I had to dig for this one, as it's a single-game parlay, but I'm grabbing under 3.5 goals and over 4.5 corners for Brighton at +100 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Southampton at Chelsea and Manchester City at Nottingham Forest
Parlay: Chelsea to beat Southampton -255 and Manchester City to beat Nottingham Forest -320 = -122
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In a different week, this parlay would probably be closer to -200 or -300. However, Chelsea are struggling for three points every match and Nottingham Forest have shown life at home. Still, that's not enough for me when you can get -122 odds on this simple parlay.
I think the wins for Chelsea and Graham Potter will come at some point and it should start in this match against a team that still doesn't have a manager. I'm always heavy on the new manager bump, but it's unclear what Southampton's formation or direction will be mid-managerial change.
Manchester City have a busy schedule, yet that shouldn't matter against Forest. City will dominate possession and while it'll be more difficult than the 6-0 win earlier in the season, I think they still care about winning the league, something that should motivate them enough to get the three points in this spot.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 24
- Brentford -.5 corners in the first half against Crystal Palace -120
- Under 2.5 goals scored between Newcastle and Liverpool +105
- Single-game parlay: Under 3.5 goals and Brighton over 4.5 corners against Fulham +100
- Parlay: Chelsea to beat Southampton -255 and Manchester City to beat Nottingham Forest -320 = -122
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
