This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Always be grateful for what you have because the fall is imminent. I know I can't keep up my incredible run of betting success in this article (or on Kits & Wagers where I'm 20-10). Last gameweek was almost too good to be true, as I hit numerous Brentford bets, including Ivan Toney to score first at +450 and Brentford moneyline up to the 30th minute at +380. And those bets aren't included in my overall record in this article or in Kits & Wagers.
At some point, these bets will lose, but until then, we keep riding.
Kits & Wagers dove into three midweek matches, including Manchester United versus Tottenham. Both Adam and Chris are coming off positive weekends and are looking for more winnings.
Record: 27-15-1. Up $1,172 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Brighton
Brighton -1.5 corners in the first half -120 versus Nottingham Forest
Premier League corner bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
If you don't watch or listen to Kits & Wagers (what are you doing?), corner bets have long been a talking point. Early on, there were a couple bets that looked ugly after 90 minutes, but we've hit four straight on the show. Diving through some numbers, there's not a ton of value in this match because Brighton are expected to easily reach seven or eight corners.
I'll take a similar route as the one I had with Fulham this past weekend. I think Roberto De Zerbi is hungry to get his first win and this is a perfect spot for it. Even if Brighton score in the fifth minute, I don't think they'll sit back and lose this bet. They're going to push from the start and their possession-based style means Nottingham Forest aren't going to have the ball a ton in the attacking third. I had to search for this one, but Brighton first-half corners seems much safer than the second half. If you can't find this bet, I also like Brighton race to seven corners, which is around -135. Obviously, for better value, race to eight corners is also there for you.
EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth at Southampton
Over 2.5 goals +105 between Southampton and Bournemouth
These teams need points and right now, Southampton are incapable of keeping a clean sheet. They got a 20th-minute goal over the weekend and scraped by to get a point from West Ham. They still don't have a firm presence next to James Ward-Prowse in the midfield and that's opening things up a little too much for opponents and it doesn't help that center-back Armel Bella-Kotchap suffered a shoulder injury last match.
Bournemouth attacked a little more than I expected at Fulham and I wonder if they take that same approach against a similarly defensive-inept side. Bournemouth don't have a huge bench and that could also lead to some tired legs. While a scoreless draw is in play because of how bad these teams have been at times, I think betting goals is the way to go as both will think three points are available to them in this matchup.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Fulham and Leeds United at Leicester City
Parlay: Aston Villa double chance versus Fulham (-245) and Leeds double chance at Leicester (-160) = +128
Premier League parlays are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up yet, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
I'm 9-1 on parlays for the season and while I know I can't keep this up, I can't completely stop putting two favorable bets together. Like any bettor, I have a problem with parlays and fortunately they've worked in my favor.
This one is about as risky as they come as I'm backing two away sides. It's more about the two home teams, as I don't trust either Fulham or Leicester City. I know Fulham have a pretty solid home crowd at Craven Cottage, but their back line has had some issues over the last month and a nagging foot injury for Aleksandar Mitrovic means he won't be 100 percent for this match. I also think this is a good bounce-back spot for Aston Villa, who probably should have gotten more from their match against Chelsea.
It's the same situation for the other match, as there's no way I'd take Leicester City without James Maddison (who is suspended). Leeds United maybe aren't the best team and they've really struggled away from home, but as with Villa, this is a pretty good spot for them even if they aren't at Elland Road. As long as Mitrovic doesn't go beast mode and Jamie Vardy doesn't turn back the clock 10 years, I like this parlay.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 12
- Brighton -1.5 corners in the first half -120 versus Nottingham Forest
- Over 2.5 goals +105 between Southampton and Bournemouth
- Parlay: Aston Villa double chance versus Fulham (-245) and Leeds double chance at Leicester (-160) = +128
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
