This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Arsenal look to keep pace with league-leaders Liverpool when they travel to the south coast to take on Brighton on Saturday.
The Seagulls have not been in good form, going winless in their last seven Premier League matches. They drew Arsenal in the previous meeting, though they benefited from a Declan Rice red card. It's going to be much more difficult this time around.
The Gunners were dominant in a 3-1 win against Brentford on the road earlier in the week. It's paramount that they continue picking up points to stay within striking distance of Liverpool at the top of the table. They're without their best player Bukayo Saka for the next two months, so it's not an ideal situation, but they really should be getting three points from this match.
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EPL Best Bets for Brighton vs. Arsenal
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
The man in form for Arsenal has been Gabriel Jesus. The question marks surrounding the Gunners this season has been their need for a threat in the box, but maybe that striker was on their bench this whole time.
Jesus has started the last three matches and has scored three goals, two in the win at Crystal Palace. More importantly, he's taken eight shots in those three matches. Facing a team like Brighton is the perfect matchup for him.
The Seagulls aren't great defending in transition and their press hasn't been effective, either. That means Jesus will be in one-on-one situations against Brighton's center-backs and can make runs in behind their back line to get scoring opportunities.
At +187, I like the price on him to find the back of the net.
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Betting on Team Total Goals
Something strange has been happening with Arsenal recently. For whatever reason, teams have been scoring a lot of low quality efforts against them.
The last nine goals that Arsenal have conceded in the Premier League have come from just 0.97 expected goals. That means there is positive regression coming for the best defensive team in the Premier League.
Arsenal have had the misfortune of a few too many red cards this season, but from 11 v. 11 situations, they're only allowing 0.71 xG per 90 minutes. OVer their last seven Premier League matches, Brighton are only averaging 1.28 xG per 90 minutes and didn't even face a team in the current top six during that run.
I like the price on Brighton not to score in this match at +175.
Betting on Total Shots
The total shots for both teams in this match is set at 26.5, which I think is a tad high.
Ever since Saka went down, Arsenal have played slower matches. That's been evident in their last two matches, as they held Ipswich and Brentford to a combined seven total shots.
Arsenal are not only controlling a lot of possession and tilting the field, but they're also good at defending in transition. The other aspect is Mikel Arteta wants his team to be patient to find the best possible shot. In their last two matches, Arsenal only had a total of 27 shots.
I like the value of under 26.5 total match shots.
Brighton vs. Arsenal Betting Picks
- Gabriel Jesus Anytime Goalscorer (+187)
- Brighton Team Total Under 0.5 (+175)
- Total Match Shots Under 26.5 shots (-110)
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