This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Aston Villa and Chelsea meet in Birmingham on Saturday with both teams desperate to find their form.
Aston Villa drew Liverpool 2-2 on Wednesday, but it hasn't been a good run for Unai Emery's side. The Villans are winless in their last five Premier League matches and have dropped to ninth place in the table. They were battered 3-0 by Chelsea earlier in the season, so they will be out for revenge Saturday.
Chelsea were incredibly poor last Friday on the south coast losing 3-0 to Brighton. The Blues have hit a really bad run of form with only two wins in their last nine Premier League matches. Before this run, they were title contenders but now would be lucky to finish inside the top four.
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Premier League Best Bets for Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
One of Chelsea's main problems right now is injuries to Romeo Lavia and Wesley Fofana. They're the team's best ball-winning players at the back and allow Chelsea to press high because they can win one-on-one duels at a high rate.
With those two out, Chelsea are vulnerable through the middle of the pitch, which is exactly where Aston Villa want to play. Ollie Watkins is often the man they look to when playing through the middle.
Watkins scored Wednesday against Liverpool and is excellent at making runs off opponent's high back lines. Chelsea want to press high and play a high defensive line, which will give Watkins some great opportunities in on net.
At +137, I like the value on him to score.
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Betting on Anytime Goal or Assist
While Chelsea want to press, they haven't been a good pressing team of late. They're 11th in danger zone losses forced and eighth in PPDA (passes per defensive actions). Good pressing teams often give Aston Villa trouble, but Chelsea haven't been a good pressing team.
Emery usually wants his side to build out of the back, using passing triangles out wide while trying to get the ball back centrally. Often, Morgan Rogers is the one they find in the middle of the pitch in build up.
Rogers is incredible with his ball carrying and passing ability running at the opponent's defense, which usually results in goals and assists. He's been struggling recently in the Premier League, but he still has a 0.40 xG + xA per 90 minute rate.
At +125, I like the value on him to have a goal or assist in this match.
Betting on Player Shots
Chelsea's injury list is growing. Nicolas Jackson and Marc Guiu are out for an extended period, and Noni Madueke was recently added to the list for a multi-week absence.
That means that there's going to be a lot of pressure put on Cole Palmer to carry their attack, which he's capable of doing.
Palmer has been more of a distributor when Chelsea have been fully healthy, but in his last five matches, he's taken a whopping 17 shots, including seven against West Ham. Aston Villa are a passive team by nature, so they will let Palmer receive the ball. Given the bodies around him and the team's recent struggles, don't be surprised if he settles for a lot of shots from outside the box.
He's also the free-kick taker and almost always shoots if he has the chance.
I like the value on him to have over 3.5 shots at +125.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Betting Picks
- Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (+137)
- Morgan Rogers Anytime Goal or Assist (+125)
- Cole Palmer Over 3.5 shots (+125)
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