This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The last two gameweeks have featured a ton of goals. In fact, there have been more goals scored in each of the last two gameweeks than any of the prior seven. There have been 70 goals scored in the last 20 Premier League matches, which equates to 3.5 goals per match. Of course, the nine-goal Manchester derby inflates that number, but all but two matches hit over 2.5 goals in Gameweek 10. Either it's a random occurrence or the miles are starting to pile up following the international break. As you'll see below, I believe it's a random occurrence... for now.
Liverpool and Manchester City highlighted this week's Kits & Wagers, but the lads also discussed Manchester United versus Newcastle and the newly-promoted battle between Fulham and Bournemouth.
Record: 23-13-1. Up $976 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton at Brentford and Crystal Palace at Leicester City
Parlay: Brentford double chance -175 versus Brighton and Crystal Palace double chance -165 versus Leicester City = +152
Premier League parlays can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
I was back on the parlay train last week and I'm going back to the double chance well for this one. Thomas Frank wasn't happy after one of Brentford's worst performances ever last weekend, allowing five goals at Newcastle. They're at home where Frank usually motivates his team quite well and another week of training for Ethan Pinnock should do wonders for the back line. I'm also not entirely sold on Brighton being at the same level as under Graham Potter, so I'll ride the home side to at least get a draw. I personally think this match should be even or Brentford should be small favorites. If you want a deeper dive into this match, go here.
As for Leicester City, I'm not sure why they are +130 to win this game. They didn't look overly good in the win against Nottingham Forest and then lost to Bournemouth last match, getting outplayed for much of the second half. I'm betting on Crystal Palace almost every week, as the oddsmakers are underrating them. I think Palace have the better team and for an early match at King Power Stadium, they should be able to steal a point. The possible absence of Jonny Evans is another boost for this bet.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Wolverhampton
Under 2.5 goals -135 between Wolverhampton versus Nottingham Forest
This match has under written all over it and while I like 'No' on both teams to score, I don't want to risk another 1-1 result. I think under 2.5 goals should be closer to -160 for this one and we're getting some value. The main reason it's -130 (and now -135) is because of Nottingham Forest, who have had some high scoring matches this season. However, as seen in the Villa result, which probably should've finished scoreless, it seems like they're going to start playing things a bit more safer. They kind of matched Villa's defensive nature in that game and I think the same could happen in this one. Wolves get Ruben Neves back for this contest and it's a perfect spot for them to score first and then sit back for a 1-0 win.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Aston Villa
Under 2.5 goals between Aston Villa and Chelsea -115
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I know a lot of people are bashing Aston Villa for the way they're playing and that gives us an edge in the odds. While I like the double chance for Villa, I'm not sure I can take them against Chelsea. I risked Crystal Palace in this spot a couple weeks ago and Chelsea managed a late winner and they haven't been stopped since the international break. Instead, I'll hope Villa continue their defensive tendencies and keep this a close, low-scoring match. Similar to the Man City result earlier this season, a point is good enough in this spot and that means keeping this game tight and preventing opportunities, something they've done a solid job at. Again, at risk of losing 'No' on both team to score in a 1-1 result, I'll take the safer under 2.5 goals.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 11
- Parlay: Brentford double chance -175 versus Brighton and Crystal Palace double chance -165 versus Leicester City = +152
- Under 2.5 goals -135 between Wolverhampton versus Nottingham Forest
- Under 2.5 goals between Aston Villa and Chelsea -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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