This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
You don't call an exact draw bet unless you're feeling good about yourself. You also don't hit an exact draw bet with an own goal in stoppage time unless you're really lucky. As I've said throughout the season, I've been unlucky in some cases, but I've also probably been equally lucky. This past week, I hit the draw bet in addition to getting a Leeds win despite them going down two goals early.
It's the final Premier League weekend before the World Cup break. For now, I'm assuming there won't be massive rotation for players competing in the World Cup, but that's something that can't be predicted.
Kits & Wagers run through Gameweek 16 in the Premier League after another successful weekend of betting. For more bets, Adam is 29-13 on the show.
Record: 34-21-1. Up $1,398 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Leeds United at Tottenham
Both teams to score no draw +130 between Tottenham and Leeds
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I try to avoid public plays and obvious bets, but it's hard to argue that there won't be goals between Tottenham and Leeds. Both back lines have been two of the worst in the league in recent weeks and the only way there isn't three or more goals between them is if Tottenham score first and then escape with a 1-0 win.
It's almost guaranteed Leeds will allow a goal, as their back line seems to make multiple mistakes every match and while they won at Liverpool last trip, I don't envision that happening again. As for Tottenham, they seem to be playing on their back foot every match until they allow a goal, which forces them to press. While Son Heung-Min is still out, Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison are both available again, which is a nice boost for the home side.
To be safe from a Tottenham loss, I'm grabbing both teams to score no draw. In fact, I may side with Leeds double chance following another poor midweek performance in which manager Antonio Conte revealed that Harry Kane was "fatigued" after the match in which he played 59 minutes.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Nottingham Forest and Everton at Bournemouth
Parlay: Crystal Palace double chance (-280) at Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth double chance -205 versus Everton = +101
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The last time I parlayed two away teams, I lost money. In fact, I originally wrote up Chelsea at Newcastle in this bet and then decided against it because I didn't want to bet on two away teams again.
I'm betting on Crystal Palace because they're better than Nottingham Forest, even away from home. Palace put in maybe their best performance of the season last weekend (and ruined my bet) and as long as they can repeat, they'll have a chance for another three points. Palace are the better team in this spot. I'm maybe slightly worried that Forest found some form midweek in a Cup win against Tottenham, but that was with an almost completely rotated side.
Bournemouth beat Everton 4-1 on Wednesday and while I don't think the same thing will happen again, it's hard to ignore how the Toffees have looked. They're allowing a ton of chances to everyone and were just outmatched by a bunch of Bournemouth backups. The Cherries are at least scoring goals and even if they go down in this match, I think they have the scoring to get back to a draw.
EPL Best Bets for Arsenal at Wolverhampton
Arsenal to win with a clean sheet +165 versus Wolves
This is kind of the same matchup for Arsenal as their recent trip to Nottingham Forest when they won 5-0. I took win to nil in that spot and I'll take it again. Wolves won't get the same opportunities they just had against Brighton and it's a match the Gunners should control, as they aim to be top of the table heading into the break.
Through 14 matches, Wolves still have just eight goals and I'm not sure what playing at home does for them against Arsenal. As long as Arsenal can hit the back of the net at least once, I think this bet is pretty safe.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Fulham
Manchester United over 5.5 corners at Fulham +105
I didn't want to take both teams to score no draw twice in one article because that bet is always scary to place, as not only are you asking for at least three goals but that the match won't finish 2-2. Instead, I think there's some value in corner betting. I was originally on Fulham over corners, but I can't take them without Aleksandar Mitrovic (or Kenny Tete and Harrison Reed, who are suspended).
This match should be fairly up and down and while United don't have consistent positive results, I think they're playing well under Erik ten Hag and unless they score in the first 10 or 20 minutes, they should be pressing a good portion of the match. If this match is scoreless in the second half and Fulham are in the attacking third more than United, I'd be surprised.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 16
- Both teams to score no draw +130 between Tottenham and Leeds
- Parlay: Crystal Palace double chance (-280) at Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth double chance -205 versus Everton = +101
- Arsenal to win with a clean sheet +165 versus Wolves
- Manchester United over 5.5 corners at Fulham +105
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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