This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Chelsea are looking for back-to-back wins when they make the short trip to the Gtech Stadium to battle Brentford in a West London derby.
Brentford are coming off a 2-1 defeat at St. James' Park on Wednesday, but they're still only three points behind Bournemouth for a top-half finish. The Bees gave Chelsea a lot of problems in the previous encounter despite losing 2-1. Back at the GTech where they've been good this season, they'll be looking for another famous upset.
Chelsea are in the midst a heated battle for Champions League football. It's a certainty that England is going to get five teams into next season's Champions League, but Chelsea are only sitting two points above Newcastle, who also have a game in hand. Every match the rest of the way is going to be important for the Blues.
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Premier League Best Bets for Brentford vs. Chelsea
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Chelsea's press and defense hasn't been that good this season. Their front line isn't intense or physical enough to close opponents down, so teams are able to play through them.
They also play a pretty high defensive line, which allows opponents who want to play direct to play in behind.
Brentford are one of the best teams in the Premier League at playing those balls in behind and their forwards have been excellent at playing off a high back line.
The man who benefits the most from this is Yoane Wissa. He's bagged 14 goals this season and has scored in three of his last five matches, in addition to racking up 13 shots.
I like the value on him to score at +125.
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Betting on Player Shots
With Romeo Lavia out again, Enzo Fernandez will have to play a deeper role, which also means more is going to be asked of Cole Palmer in attack.
Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke being back certainly helps Chelsea's attack, but more often than not, everything is put on Palmer's shoulders.
Palmer will be the one asked to connect the attack by dropping deep when Brentford press, but when Chelsea pin Brentford in their own final third, he's going to be the one asked to take most of the shots.
He's averaging 3.56 shots per 90 minutes this season and is also Chelsea's free-kick taker, which gives him a free chance at a shot or two.
I like the value on him to have over 3.5 shots in this match at -120.
Betting on Goal Props
This match is more than likely going to be very high event.
Chelsea love to press high and play a high line, but they're not very effective at doing either. The Blues are 11th in danger zone losses forced and eighth in PPDA (passes per defensive action), which isn't good considering how often they press teams high up the pitch.
Brentford have also transitioned into a team that presses high and gave Newcastle a lot of problems Wednesday with a PPDA of 7.6. With both teams pressing high, that should create a back-and-forth match that is more than likely going to be played in transition.
The previous meeting between these sides ended 2-1 with 3.8 expected goals and I think something similar will happen Sunday.
I like the value on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at -120.
Brentford vs. Chelsea Betting Picks
- Yoane Wissa Anytime Goalscorer (+125)
- Cole Palmer Over 3.5 shots (-120)
- Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 goals (-120)
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