This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Brentford and Brighton kick off Gameweek 11 on Friday night. If you're looking for more betting content, my full weekend preview can be found here and the same goes for our podcast/show, Kits & Wagers. For line movement on this match, check out our sports betting pages.
Liverpool and Manchester City highlighted this week's Kits & Wagers, but they also discussed Manchester United versus Newcastle and the newly-promoted battle between Fulham and Bournemouth.
Record: 23-13-1. Up $976 on $100 bets.
This figures to be a fun match, or at least that's the hope. Brentford are in a bit of a rough patch and are coming off one of their worst Premier League losses ever, a 5-1 result at Newcastle. After being one of the most proficient attacks to open the season, they have one goal in their last three matches.
Brighton are still figuring things out under new manager Roberto De Zerbi and that'll likely be the case for a few more weeks. This is just his third match in charge, as Brighton drew 3-3 at Liverpool in his debut and then fell 1-0 to Tottenham last weekend. Given the difficulty of those matchups, it's still a little hard to get a read on this team.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton & Hove Albion at Brentford
I rarely go against Brentford at home under the lights, especially coming off a bad loss. Manager Thomas Frank will have his team motivated and ready to go from the start. At +200 to win, that almost seems like a trap because this is close to an even match in my eyes and Brentford may even have the overall edge at home.
Brighton have had the better start to the season, but matchups have to come into play. They already lost 2-1 at Fulham and wins against West Ham and Manchester United came earlier in the season when both those sides were struggling. Throw in De Zerbi at manager and Brighton being an away favorite seems like a mistake.
The biggest worry for Brentford is what they do at center-back, as Ethan Pinnock returned from a long-term injury last match and didn't look right. Either he won't start again or another week of training will help his form. Maybe that's hard to bet on, but I think Brentford's pressuring will lead to defensive mistakes from Brighton.
Under De Zerbi, Brighton want to possess the ball a little more and attack quickly on the counter. It remains to be seen how that will work long term in the Premier League, but this is a perfect spot for Ivan Toney to get back on track.
My first lean on this match is over 2.5 goals at +100, though I'm still tentative because of De Zerbi and how little we know from this team in matchups not against top-six sides. I think Brentford's problems in the back combined with the way Brighton want to play should lead to goals. If you don't like the over, both teams to score is at -130, albeit at a bit less value.
Also in play:
- Brentford to score first +110
- Brentford moneyline up to 30th minute +370
I won't make these "official" picks for my overall record, but I'll likely be taking each of these myself. If you have questions after lineup release, feel free to reach out to me @RotoZdroik or on our Discord channel. There's a chance Brentford return to a 4-3-3 formation, which would definitely suggest more goals.
EPL Betting Picks for Brighton at Brentford
- Brentford to win +200
- Over 2.5 goals +100
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire this season for sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, but we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.
