This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Canadian Open continues Thursday with Round of 16 action on both the men's and women's sides. Every remaining player has had to win at least one match to get to this stage. A dominant server who's finally living up to his potential should continue his winning ways in the Montreal men's draw, while two of the top six seeds in the Toronto women's draw will be facing stiff challenges. All match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
All the matches at this ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 hard-court event are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Pablo Carreno Busta (+180) vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner's the rightful favorite in this match, but he's still getting back into the swing of things, as this will be only his second hard-court match since March. The seventh-seeded Italian had a first-round bye and wasn't at his best in the second round, getting pushed to three sets by 70th-ranked Adrian Mannarino. Meanwhile, Carreno Busta has already notched two quality wins here, following up a 6-3, 6-2 upset of Matteo Berrettini with an equally impressive 6-0, 6-3 drubbing of Holger Rune.
Honorable Mention:
Garbine Muguruza (+175) vs. Belinda Bencic
Lock It In
Nick Kyrgios (-230) vs. Alex de Minaur
Kyrgios has been almost unstoppable lately, winning 13 of his last 14 matches while routinely holding serve in less than a minute thanks to repeated barrages of service winners. His latest victory was the most impressive in this strong stretch, as Kyrgios knocked off No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev 6-7 (1), 6-4, 6-2 Wednesday. Kyrgios' countryman de Minaur will have to work much harder to hold serve, and he's unlikely to get many break points against Kyrgios, who has been broken only once in his last eight matches.
Coco Gauff (-190) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Gauff's ranked five spots behind Sabalenka, but the 18-year-old American is playing far better tennis at the moment. Both Gauff's court coverage and mental toughness were on full display in Wednesday's thrilling 6-4, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (3) win over Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, who has one of the best serves in the women's game. Sabalenka also has a powerful serve, but control hasn't been her strong suit lately. The Belarusian double faulted 16 times in her 6-4, 6-3 second-round win over Sara Sorribes Tormo, giving Sabalenka 59 double faults in her last three matches. While Sorribes Tormo failed to capitalize on all the free points from Sabalenka, beating a player of Gauff's caliber while serving that poorly is nearly impossible.
Honorable Mention:
Hubert Hurkacz (-525) vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Value Bet
Karolina Pliskova (+130) vs. Maria Sakkari
Pliskova battled injuries earlier in 2022, but the two-time Grand Slam finalist is healthy and playing her best tennis of the year at the moment. After a 6-3, 6-4 first-round win over Barbora Krejcikova, Pliskova got revenge on Amanda Anisimova for last week's loss at the Silicon Valley Classic with a 6-1, 6-1 blowout. While Pliskova's stock is on the rise, the same can't be said for Sakkari, who has gone just 3-4 in her last seven matches. The pressure will be on Sakkari as the No. 3 seed here, but the 14th-seeded Pliskova's in far better form at the moment.
Marin Cilic (-160) vs. Tommy Paul
Following up a major upset win is often difficult, and Paul will be trying to avoid a letdown after knocking off No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz while also facing an extremely accomplished opponent in Cilic. The 2014 US Open champion is in vintage form at the moment, having notched identical 6-3, 6-2 victories over Borna Coric and Karen Khachanov in the first two rounds to improve to 10-2 in his last 12 matches. Cilic has won both previous meetings between these two, including one earlier this year on the hard courts of Adelaide.
Honorable Mention:
Alison Riske-Amritraj (+105) vs. Yulia Putintseva
