This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open third round round begins Friday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. American underdogs in both the men's and women's draw will be hunting upsets in winnable matches Friday, while Serena Williams will look to keep her US Open run going and a couple of Spanish men are poised for success. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but occasionally you can find more favorable odds by searching other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the best sports betting sites.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Tommy Paul (+155) vs. Casper Ruud
Paul has had to battle to get to this point, needing five sets to beat both Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Sebastian Korda. He won a 6-0 set in each of those matches, showing just how well Paul can play when he's at the top of his game. Maintaining that level throughout a full match has proven difficult, but the talented American's aggressive game style fits much better on fast surfaces than Ruud's game does, and they've split two previous hard court meetings in addition to Ruud's five-set win at the 2020 French Open. Ruud hasn't faced a top-100 opponent yet in this tournament, so Paul will be a major step up in competition for the world No. 7, who is 25-7 on clay this year and a less intimidating 15-8 on other surfaces.
Shelby Rogers (+155) vs. Ons Jabeur
Rogers upset No. 1 seed Ashleigh Barty in the third round of last year's US Open, and the American will be looking to conjure up another major upset in the same round one year later. Jabeur has steadied herself after a wobbly summer, but the No. 5 seed is still just 4-4 in her last eight matches dating back to her loss to Elena Rybakina in the Wimbledon final. Rogers, on the other hand, has played some of her best tennis recently, beating Bianca Andreescu, Maria Sakkari, Amanda Anisimova and Veronika Kudermetova all in straight sets to reach the final of the Silicon Valley Classic last month.
Honorable Mention:
J.J. Wolf (+550) vs. Nick Kyrgios
Lock It In
Veronika Kudermetova (-425) vs. Dalma Galfi
Kudermetova has flown under the radar as a dark horse contender here. She reached the French Open quarterfinals in her previous Grand Slam appearance but wasn't allowed to play Wimbledon due to her Russian nationality. Since beating Paula Badosa and Madison Keys during that French Open run, Kudermetova has notched wins over Belinda Bencic, Aryna Sabalenka and Ons Jabeur, showing that the world No. 18 can hang with anyone on the WTA Tour. Kudermetova hasn't dropped a set yet in this tournament and probably won't need her A-game to knock off the 91st-ranked Galfi, who spends most of her time playing lower-level tournaments and is 0-3 against players ranked in the top 60 this year.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-225) vs. Daniel Elahi Galan
Galan capitalized on Stefanos Tsitsipas' horrendous first-round performance then toughed out a fiery five-set win over Jordan Thompson, but this will likely be the end of the line for the 94th-ranked Colombian clay-courter. Davidovich Fokina has significantly more talent than Galan, and while the 23-year-old Spaniard can have concentration lapses similar to Paul's, Davidovich Fokina has already beaten two opponents far tougher than Galan. He dismissed the in-form Yoshihito Nishioka without dropping a set, then survived a fifth-set tiebreak against tricky veteran Marton Fucsovics.
Honorable Mention:
Liudmila Samsonova (-650) vs. Aleksandra Krunic
Value Bet
Serena Williams (-170) vs. Ajla Tomljanovic
Tomljanovic is a battle-tested veteran who won't be intimidated by playing Serena, but Williams has been playing at a high level here, backing up a 6-3, 6-3 first-round win over Danka Kovinic with a 7-6 (4), 2-6, 6-2 thriller against No. 2 seed Anett Kontaveit. The raucous crowd support for Williams has turned Arthur Ashe Stadium into a downright hostile environment for her opponents, and dealing with those conditions while facing a highly motivated all-time great is a tough ask of anyone, let alone a player ranked outside the top 40.
Pablo Carreno Busta (-130) vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur has expertly navigated a somewhat tricky draw, dropping just one set combined to Filip Krajinovic and Cristian Garin, but the Australian counterpuncher tends to run into trouble against opponents he shouldn't beat. Carreno Busta falls into that category, as the Spaniard's ranked five spots ahead of de Minaur at No. 15 and recently took home a Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open. Their only previous meeting came at the 2019 French Open, where Carreno Busta cruised to a 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 victory.
Honorable Mention:
Shuai Zhang (-195) vs. Rebecca Marino
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