This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third ATP Masters 1000 event on the 2023 calendar begins Sunday, April 9, from the red clay of Monte Carlo, Monaco. This event has a 56-player draw with 16 seeds, the top eight of which get byes straight into the second round. The Monte Carlo Masters is the first big clay court tournament of the year, which should offer the opportunity for some players whose games revolve around defense or touch to thrive at the expense of big hitters who prefer hard courts. There is no corresponding WTA event in Monte Carlo, and all of the men's matches at this Masters 1000 will be best-of-three sets, which is different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
We will once again be deprived of the opportunity to see the matchup everyone has been clamoring for. Novak Djokovic is back in action after being denied entry into the recently completed pair of Masters 1000 events in the United States due to his lack of COVID vaccination, but Carlos Alcaraz -- who ceded the world No. 1 ranking back to Djokovic with his semifinal loss to Jannik Sinner in Miami -- will miss this event due to arthritis in his left hand and muscular discomfort in the spine. Other notable absentees besides Alcaraz include Rafael Nadal (hip), Nick Kyrgios (knee), Marin Cilic (knee), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow), Sebastian Korda (wrist) and Jenson Brooksby (illness). On the bright side, David Goffin (knee) and Jack Draper (abdomen) are both in the draw; the former had been out since late February while the latter missed the Miami Open after retiring at Indian Wells.
While Monte Carlo Masters title odds have yet to be revealed on major mobile sportsbooks such as DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook, you will be able to wager on individual matches, and it should be only a matter of time until Monte Carlo futures become available as well. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including those that recently launched in Massachusetts.
Monte Carlo Masters Picks
The Favorite
Novak Djokovic - Djokovic and Alcaraz would have been co-favorites here, but with the Spaniard sidelined, this becomes Djokovic's tournament to lose. The two-time Monte Carlo champion hasn't won this event since 2015, but Djokovic has been head and shoulders above the competition in 2023, with a 15-1 record that includes his title run at the Australian Open, where he dropped just one set. Djokovic is a tad less dominant on clay compared to hard courts, but the drop off isn't all that significant for the only other man to win multiple French Opens in the Rafael Nadal era.
In the Mix
Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas is the two-time defending champion here, and the No. 2 seed has had his best results on clay. The pair of Monte Carlo titles are Tsitsipas' only Masters 1000 crowns, and two of his other four Masters 1000 finals have come on this surface, plus he was a set away from winning the French Open in 2021 before Djokovic stormed back from a two-set deficit in that final. Tsitsipas has been limited by a shoulder recently, which has taken some oomph out of his backhand, but he looked noticeably healthier at the Miami Open in late March than in Indian Wells earlier in the month, so another couple weeks to recover have likely brought him close to 100 percent.
Jannik Sinner - Sinner's win over Alcaraz in Miami should give the seventh-seeded Italian a massive confidence boost, even if he subsequently lost to Daniil Medvedev in the final, adding to his head-to-head struggles against the Russian. His power off both wings and smooth movement at 6-foot-2 give Sinner a nice all-court game, and the 21-year-old has already been to the quarterfinals of all four Grand Slams, so carrying over his recent hard court success to the clay shouldn't be an issue for Sinner. After the thrills Sinner-Alcaraz offered at Indian Wells and Miami, get the popcorn ready for the possible Sinner-Djokovic quarterfinal here.
Sleepers
Alexander Zverev - Prior to crashing out 6-0, 6-4 against Taro Daniel in Miami, Zverev had been showing steady progress in his attempt to regain the top-three level he had reached prior to last year's devastating ankle injury. He went 5-2 over his previous two tournaments with competitive losses to Andrey Rublev and Medvedev. Zverev was giving Nadal all he could handle in the French Open semifinals at the time of his injury in 2022, and three of the German's five career Masters 1000 titles have come on clay courts. He's only 25 years old, but Zverev's three Masters 1000 titles on clay are already third-most among active players behind Nadal's 26 and Djokovic's 11, with Tsitsipas and Andy Murray behind him with two apiece.
Casper Ruud - Ruud had a tough start to the season on hard courts, but the world No. 5 has looked much more comfortable on his favorite clay surface, as he will be playing for the Estoril Open title Sunday while first-round play gets underway in Monte Carlo. The 2022 French Open runner-up will go straight into the second round of Monte Carlo as the No. 4 seed, and Ruud has a favorable early draw, which should allow him to continue rebuilding his confidence. Ruud's career winning percentage on clay is north of .730 while his mark on other surfaces is just over .550, so don't let his struggles on hard courts in 2023 color your perception of his superb ability on the dirt.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Davidovich Fokina has the talent to hang with anybody on his best days, and that high ceiling was on full display last year in Monte Carlo, as he beat an out-of-form Djokovic early in the tournament and rode the momentum from that win all the way to the final. The Spaniard has a tough early draw against No. 9 seed Karen Khachanov, but Davidovich Fokina recently beat Khachanov in Indian Wells, improving to 2-0 in his career against the Russian. Davidovich Fokina will have a nice opportunity to extend his head-to-head edge in what will be their first clay-court meeting. If he can beat Khachanov, Davidovich Fokina could use that victory as a springboard to another deep run in Monte Carlo, just like in 2022.
Fade
Daniil Medvedev - Medvedev has won 24 of his last 25 matches and is coming off a Masters 1000 title at the Miami Open, but all of that success came on hard courts. The 27-year-old Russian has had much less success on clay, with an 18-23 career record on the surface. He's 7-2 at the French Open over the last two years after four consecutive first-round exits, so Medvedev has made incremental improvements, but he still isn't anywhere near the cream of the crop on clay due to his subpar movement on the surface. Medvedev's a defensive wizard on hard courts and effortlessly flies from corner to corner, but he often takes himself out of position on clay by sliding after he hits the ball instead of sliding into his shots.
Holger Rune - Rune's aggressive baseline game can work well on clay, but the 19-year-old Dane's still mastering the intricacies of this surface, having gone 18-18 on clay in his career compared to 46-24 on hard courts. He made the quarterfinals at his maiden French Open appearance last year, but Rune comes into Monte Carlo in a bit of a rut, having gone just 3-3 in his last six matches. While a first-round bye as the No. 6 seed is nice, Rune has a tricky potential second-round clash with two-time French Open finalist Dominic Thiem, who finally strung a couple wins together in Estoril and may finally be turning the corner when it comes to belief in his game after numerous injury setbacks.
Picks to Win the Monte Carlo Masters
Without Alcaraz or Nadal to stand in his way, Djokovic should pick up where he left off against pretty much the same field he mowed down en route to the Australian Open title. A Tsitsipas three-peat at Monte Carlo is unlikely given the ongoing concerns over his shoulder and the fact that Djokovic has beaten him in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, which would certainly be on Tsitsipas' mind if the top two seeds square off in the final. The rest of the field simply hasn't shown the level necessary to challenge the favorites, be it due to a lack of recent success or poor results on clay historically.
