This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both men's and women's first-round play is on the docket at the Miami Open on Wednesday, as the men begin their tournament while the women are already on their second day of play. The top 32 seeds in both draws got byes into the second round and won't be playing Wednesday, but there's no shortage of exciting action to choose from nonetheless. Some past-their-prime former stars on the men's side will look to recapture a fraction of their former glory in winnable first-round clashes, while a young American is set to make his ATP main draw debut. On the women's side, there are enticing betting options set to take the court among both youngsters and veterans.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Elina Avanesyan (+205) vs. Erika Andreeva
Erika is three years older than her 16-year-old sister Mirra, but the younger Andreeva has already had more success on the WTA Tour. Erika's current ranking of 94 is her career high, and while she has found success at the Challenger level and done a good job of battling through qualifying in numerous events this year, Andreeva's just 2-4 in WTA main draw matches in 2024. Avanesyan's also a young Russian player on the rise, but the 21-year-old is a bit further ahead in her development, as evidenced by Avanesyan's current ranking of No. 65. While Avanesyan's just 4-5 in 2024, that record includes a top-10 win over Maria Sakkari and only one straight-sets loss, so she has been competitive against a far tougher schedule than Andreeva.
Emiliana Arango (+170) vs. Tatjana Maria
Arango's just 5-8 in 2024, but the 123rd-ranked Colombian will have some confidence heading into this match after winning a pair of three-setters in qualifying to make the main draw. That may be all she needs to beat Maria, who hasn't strung back-to-back wins together since September. Maria's ranked 48th, but the German's crafty game is far better suited for grass and clay than hard courts. The 36-year-old Maria is 7-8 in 2024, including 1-2 against players ranked outside the top 100, so this is a golden opportunity for Arango to pull off an upset, especially with the crowd likely to be in Arango's corner considering the Miami area has a substantial Colombian population.
Honorable Mention
Roberto Carballes Baena (+230) vs. Aleksandar Vukic
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Gael Monfils (-310) vs. Dusan Lajovic
Monfils showed in Indian Wells that he still has some tread in his tires at age 37, and the ever-entertaining Frenchman looks fully fit after having chunks of his 2022 and 2023 campaigns erased by foot injuries. Monfils pushed Casper Ruud to the limit in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells, falling 3-6, 7-6 (3), 6-4 after knocking off eighth-ranked Hubert Hurkacz and 28th-ranked Cameron Norrie in the previous two rounds. If Monfils can come close to replicating that level, he shouldn't have a problem taking care of Lajovic, even though the 52nd-ranked Serb is only five spots back of Monfils in the rankings. Lajovic prefers to play on clay, as he's just 3-4 on hard courts this year and 82-122 on hard courts in his career.
Zhizhen Zhang (-265) vs. Martin Damm
Zhang's second-round loss to Luca Nardi at Indian Wells looks much more excusable in hindsight considering Nardi followed it up with an upset win over Novak Djokovic in his next match. Prior to that, Zhang was 6-2 against opponents ranked outside the top 20 in 2024, with losses to Alexander Shevchenko and Monfils. The 49th-ranked Zhang hasn't been particularly upset-prone, which will make pulling off an upset difficult for the 204th-ranked Damm, who is making his ATP Tour main draw debut. The 6-foot-8 American is hoping to follow in the footsteps of John Isner and Reilly Opelka, but Damm's performance on the Challenger Tour in 2024 suggests he has a long way to go before he can be mentioned in the same breath as those two tall big servers. Damm has five losses to players ranked outside the top 200, and the highest-ranked player he has faced this year is No. 128 Maxime Cressy, who defeated Damm 6-4, 6-4.
Honorable Mention
Danielle Collins (-340) vs. Bernarda Pera
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Andy Murray (+125) vs. Matteo Berrettini
Neither of these big-name players are anywhere near their peaks. The 36-year-old Murray is likely playing his last Miami Open, but at least the former world No. 1 has stabilized his game after an 0-4 start in 2024, winning a round in each of his last three tournaments to get to 3-7. Berrettini's only 27, but injuries have derailed the big-serving Italian's career after he was a top-10 staple from late 2019 until halfway through 2022. His only tournament action of 2024 came at a Challenger last week, though Berrettini was able to reach the final before falling to Nuno Borges. Not only is Murray more match fit, but this is also a comfortable matchup for him stylistically, as Murray's ability to get returns in play and mix up his shots should work well against Berrettini, who dictates with his serve and forehand but has clear weaknesses in his movement and backhand. Berrettini leads their head-to-head 3-2, but Murray's 2-1 on hard courts, despite all five matchups having come since 2019, when Berrettini hit his prime and Murray was already well past his.
Petra Martic (-185) vs. Claire Liu
Martic is the vastly better player, in terms of both ranking and ability. The 60th-ranked Croatian has slipped a bit from her usual top-40 range due to a 4-6 start, but some tough draws are at least in part to blame for her poor record in 2024. Martic has a pair of top-50 wins, while three of her losses have come against players ranked no worse than 53rd, while the other three were against Ajla Tomljanovic, Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber -- all players usually ranked inside the top 50 when healthy. Liu simply lacks the game to keep pace with Martic, as the American's currently ranked No. 114 and hasn't been ranked in the top 50 in her career. Liu has lost to three players outside the top 100 this year, and she's 2-8 in her last 10 matches against top-60 opponents.
Honorable Mention
Camila Giorgi (+110) vs. Magdalena Frech
