2024 Miami Open Betting Picks, Odds, Predictions and Tennis Best Bets

2024 Miami Open Betting Picks, Odds, Predictions and Tennis Best Bets

This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.

The Miami Open begins Tuesday, March 19 with women's singles first-round play, while the men start one day later Wednesday. The second ATP Masters 1000 tournament on the men's calendar in 2024 and the fourth WTA 1000 event makes up the second half of the Sunshine Double, along with the recently completed Indian Wells. Both the men and women will have 96-player draws at this hard-court event, with the top 32 seeds getting byes directly into the second round. All Miami Open matches will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.

Novak Djokovic (personal) won't participate, as he needs some time to regroup after his stunning upset loss to Luca Nardi in Indian Wells. Fellow legend Rafael Nadal (hip) will also miss this tournament. Other notable injuries and absences on the men's side include Nick Kyrgios (wrist), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow), Aslan Karatsev (knee) and Reilly Opelka (shoulder/heel/hip). On the bright side, Kei Nishikori (knee) and Matteo Berrettini (ankle) will both be back in action here. 

In the women's draw, former world No. 1 Simona Halep has been reinstated after having her doping suspension shortened from four years to nine months on appeal, and she's ready for her first tournament appearance since the 2022 US Open. Barbora Krejcikova (back) is also ready to return to action, while Elena Rybakina (illness) and Caroline Wozniacki (toe) both appear to have recovered from the issues that sidelined them in Indian Wells. Unfortunately, young stars Mirra Andreeva (arm), Emma Raducanu (back) and Marketa Vondrousova (personal) are new entries to the list of absentees, which also includes defending champion Petra Kvitova (pregnancy), Karolina Muchova (wrist), Belinda Bencic (pregnancy), Bianca Andreescu (back), Garbine Muguruza (personal) and Jennifer Brady (knee). 

Futures odds for the Miami Open women's singles can be found on mobile sportsbooks such as DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Men's futures odds have not yet been posted as of Monday night. The tournament title odds listed below are from DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also use those mobile betting apps to wager on individual matches. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook, and North Carolina betting promos for those in the Tar Heel state. 

Miami Open Picks: Men's Tournament

The Favorite

Carlos Alcaraz - It remains to be seen whether sportsbooks deem Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner the betting favorite, but this looks like Alcaraz's tournament to lose after his impressive title defense in Indian Wells. Alcaraz avenged his Australian Open loss to Alexander Zverev in dominant fashion in the Indian Wells quarterfinals, handed Sinner his first loss to the season in the semifinals, then defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final in straight sets. By retaining the No. 2 ranking with his semifinal win over Sinner, Alcaraz has earned the No. 1 seed in Miami with Djokovic out of the draw. Alcaraz has some potential popcorn matches on his path. Ben Shelton's a possible Round of 16 opponent, with Hubert Hurkacz, Grigor Dimitrov or Sebastian Korda likely waiting in the quarterfinals, but the Spaniard lucked out with Medvedev winding up in Sinner's half of the draw. After having his quest for the Sunshine Double thwarted by Sinner in the Miami Open semifinals here last year, Alcaraz could be poised to pull off the feat this year.

In the Mix

Jannik Sinner - Sinner was the non-Djokovic favorite heading into Indian Wells, but the Italian picked up an elbow injury that Sinner said bothered his serve in the third set of the semifinal loss to Alcaraz. Even if fully healthy, Sinner has a tougher path to the title than Alcaraz by virtue of potentially having to face Medvedev and Alcaraz in the last two rounds. Sinner boasts a 16-1 record in 2024, and he'd love to add a title here after falling in the final to Hurkacz in 2021 and Medvedev in 2023. The No. 2 seed will likely face either Indian Wells semifinalist Tommy Paul or Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round, then either No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev or 10th-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.

Daniil Medvedev - Medvedev is the clear favorite against any opponent other than Sinner or Alcaraz, but while he's capable of beating both, the third-seeded Russian will also be a substantial underdog against either of the top two seeds. His early draw looks easy at first glance, though potential fourth-round opponent and No. 14 seed Ugo Humbert beat Medvedev in Dubai last month. The top players on Medvedev's path in the quarterfinals are No. 7 seed Casper Ruud and No. 12 seed Taylor Fritz, but getting to the semis is far less than half the battle if Sinner and Alcaraz await in the last two rounds. 

Sleepers

Karen Khachanov - Khachanov isn't quite as consistent as he was before a back injury derailed his excellent 2023 season, but the 15th-seeded Russian has one of the highest ceilings in the draw. He reached the semifinals of this tournament in 2023 after also making the semis of the 2022 US Open and 2023 Australian Open, so Khachanov is a borderline top-five player on this surface. The Russian finds himself in the most favorable quarter of the draw with the fourth-seeded Zverev rather than Alcaraz, Sinner or Medvedev.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas' loss to Jiri Lehecka in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells was the first loss of the year to a player ranked outside the top 12 for the Athens native. While the No. 10 seed hasn't quite regained the form that helped him finish in the top six every year from 2019-23, Tsitsipas has quietly bounced back after a poor second half to the 2023 season. He's certainly capable of reaching the quarterfinals considering Tsitsipas has a 6-5 head-to-head edge over the top seed in his way -- No. 5 Andrey Rublev. If Sinner's elbow is bothering him enough to make a noticeable difference, Tsitsipas would have a manageable potential path to the semifinals.

Jiri Lehecka - Lehecka's going to have a tough time matching his Indian Wells quarterfinal run due to a tough draw, but he's certainly a player to keep an eye on after notching straight-sets wins over Rublev and Tsitsipas before falling to Sinner at Indian Wells. The 22-year-old Czech beefed up noticeably over the offseason, and he was able to control play with huge groundstrokes off both wings against Rublev and Tsitsipas, with a style reminiscent of his coach Tomas Berdych. Berdych was a top-10 staple in his prime, and Lehecka could be headed for similar success in the near future. The world No. 27 has a complicated path as he tries to get closer to that goal, with No. 6 seed Holger Rune as his chalk third-round opponent, followed by No. 9 seed Alex de Minaur, then potentially Zverev or Khachanov in the quarterfinals.

Fade

Alexander Zverev - Zverev is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Djokovic's absence, as the German slides up into a top-four seed, so he won't have to face Alcaraz until the semis. Based on their meeting at Indian Wells, Zverev may not put up much of a fight in such a semifinal clash. After struggling tactically at the Australian Open against Zverev while Alcaraz's coach Juan Carlos Ferrero was recovering from knee surgery, Alcaraz made a tactical adjustment with Ferrero in attendance at Indian Wells, finding Zverev's forehand in big moments to pull off a dominant 6-3, 6-1 win after they returned from an early bee invasion. Just reaching the semis won't be easy for Zverev considering the No. 4 seed potentially has to face Felix Auger-Aliassime, Christopher Eubanks, Khachanov and one of Rune, de Minaur or Lehecka in order following a first-round bye. That's a lot of big servers capable of taking the racquet out of your hands, as well as talented, underseeded floaters.

Miami Open Picks: Women's Tournament

The Favorite 

Iga Swiatek (+160 odds to win title) - Swiatek's the clear favorite coming off a title in Indian Wells, and she's looking to win both legs of the Sunshine Double for the second time in three years. The No. 1 seed has yet another potential third-round match against Linda Noskova after losing to the talented 19-year-old in the third round of the Australian Open and recently avenging that defeat at Indian Wells. Swiatek's potential fourth-round opponents include No. 14 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova and No. 21 seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, while potential quarterfinal foes are struggling No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, as well as No. 12 Jasmine Paolini and No. 20 Emma Navarro, both of whom are enjoying breakout 2024 seasons. It's not a cakewalk, but the draw looks fairly comfortable for the favorite, and Swiatek's a nice value as an underdog against the field despite mowing down every Indian Wells opponent in straight sets.

In the Mix

Aryna Sabalenka (+450) - Sabalenka has been in a rut since capturing her second Grand Slam at the Australian Open. This will be only her third event since then, and the world No. 2 went just 2-2 at Dubai and Indian Wells, saving four match points against Peyton Stearns in one of the wins and suffering upset losses at the hands of Donna Vekic and Navarro. Sabalenka won't have the luxury of a comfortable draw to build up her confidence. She'll face either former world No. 1 Halep or former world No. 2 Paula Badosa in the second round, has a potential clash with another former world No. 1 in Wozniacki in the third round and could face 2021 French Open champion Krejcikova in the Round of 16. Sabalenka has the talent to beat all those opponents plus potential late-round foes such as Qinwen Zheng, Elena Rybakina and even Swiatek, but she hasn't found that level since the Australian Open.

Elena Rybakina (+550) - Rybakina's expected to play after pulling out of Indian Wells due to an illness. The big server reached the final of the 2023 Miami Open before losing to Petra Kvitova, who isn't in the draw this year because Kvitova's pregnant. Rybakina's 17-3 in 2024, so she's been excellent when able to play. The No. 4 seed's draw isn't too daunting, though she'll likely face a fellow big hitter in the fourth round in either No. 16 seed Veronika Kudermetova or No. 17 Madison Keys, with Indian Wells runner-up Maria Sakkari or Jelena Ostapenko (seeded eighth and ninth, respectively) potentially awaiting in the quarterfinals, and a possible matchup with Sabalenka in the semis. If Rybakina's fully fit, she'll be a tough out.

Coco Gauff (+800) - Outside of the Grand Slams, there's probably no tournament Gauff wants to win more than Miami, as she's a native of nearby Delray Beach. The 2023 US Open champion made the semifinals of both the Australian Open and Indian Wells this year, so she's become a consistent presence in the latter stages of the biggest hard-court tournaments. Gauff encountered some serving problems late in Indian Wells as the conditions got windy, and she'll have a tough time from the get-go in Miami if she can't get her serve straightened out. Fellow Indian Wells semifinalist Marta Kostyuk -- whom Gauff needed over three hours to beat in the Australian Open quarterfinals -- likely awaits in the third round, and Elina Svitolina is Gauff's chalk fourth-round opponent. No. 6 seed Ons Jabeur headlines the list of potential quarterfinal foes for the third-seeded Gauff, and she could face Swiatek in the semis. The tough early road explains why Gauff has the worst title odds of the four favorites, but there may be value to be had here given Gauff's strong recent hard-court results in big tournaments, especially in the United States.

Sleepers

Maria Sakkari (+3500) - There's a massive drop off after the top four favorites, as the next-lowest odds after Gauff at +800 belong to Sakkari, Jessica Pegula and Qinwen Zheng at +3500 apiece. Sakkari is playing the best tennis of that group, having just reached the championship match at Indian Wells, beating Gauff in the semifinals along the way. Sakkari didn't put up much of a fight against Swiatek in the final, but the No. 8 seed's early returns under new coach David Witt are promising.

Simona Halep (+8000) - Halep's probably going to be quite rusty, but she has been training in preparation for a return, per coach Darren Cahill. When we last saw Halep in 2022, she was ranked in the top 10 thanks to a Wimbledon semifinal result followed by a hard-court WTA 1000 title at the Canadian Open. If the 32-year-old Romanian is anywhere close to the player she was prior to her suspension, she's a massive bargain at +8000 odds. Halep's tough early draw is a double-edged sword -- if she can find a way to get through Badosa and the recently shaky Sabalenka in the first two rounds, the confidence boost from doing so could carry Halep all the way to the title.

Anna Kalinskaya (+8000) - Kalinskaya will be happy to see that Paolini's on the opposite side of the draw, as the Russian's last two losses have come at the hands of Paolini, first in the Dubai championship match, then in the Indian Wells third round. Against opponents other than Paolini, Kalinskaya has won eight consecutive matches, including victories over Ostapenko, Gauff and Swiatek. The Australian Open quarterfinalist is seeded 22nd here, with a potential Ostapenko rematch awaiting in the third round and Sakkari in the fourth round. It's far from an easy draw, but Kalinskaya has already proven this year that she's capable of beating anybody.

Fade

Qinwen Zheng (+3500) - Zheng took advantage of a favorable draw to reach the Australian Open final, as she didn't face a single seeded opponent until her 6-3, 6-2 loss to Sabalenka in the championship match. The No. 7 seed has failed to live up to elevated expectations since that result, as she's 3-3 since the Australian Open with no top-30 wins. The future's still incredibly bright for the 21-year-old Zheng, but her recent level suggests a deep run in Miami is unlikely, especially since she could face three-time Miami Open champion Victoria Azarenka in the third round.

Picks to Win the Miami Open

Alcaraz and Sinner are the two obvious favorites with Djokovic out of the draw, and after each of their last four matchups came in semifinals, the two young superstars have an opportunity to face each other in the final of a tournament for only the second time, with the other coming at Umag in 2022. Given their 4-4 head-to-head, a championship match between Alcaraz and Sinner would be a virtual coin flip, but Sinner has the far tougher path to get there. Given the slight uncertainty over his elbow and the decrease in confidence following his first loss of the year in Indian Wells, Sinner could be in danger of falling short of the final. My title pick is Alcaraz, with Medvedev rather than Sinner taking runner-up honors.

It's hard to see anyone outside the top four winning the women's title, and Swiatek's the obvious pick coming off a dominant performance in Indian Wells. If Rybakina's healthy, she could prove to be Swiatek's biggest obstacle here, especially since Rybakina has won three of their four head-to-head matchups. My Miami Open title pick is Swiatek, with wins over Gauff in the semis and Rybakina in the final.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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