This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The U.S Open quarterfinals begin Tuesday at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. The possibility of an all-American semifinal looms on the men's side, but a pair of top-10 seeds from Europe with edges in experience have other ideas. On the women's side, players with more power and favorable recent head-to-head history will look to press those advantages.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Frances Tiafoe (+125) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Tiafoe has been America's most consistent male performer at the U.S. Opening recent years, as he's in his third consecutive quarterfinal here and attempting to reach the semifinals for the second time over that span. He thrives off the crowd's energy and, in turn, keeps the audience's engagement high by generating highlight-reel shots and rallies. The athletic American is playing his best tennis of the year, spurred on by bringing on coach David Witt, who has unlocked Tiafoe's backhand down the line as an additional weapon to go with his big forehand, serve and transition game. Tiafoe reached the final in Cincinnati leading up to this tournament, giving him nine wins in his last 10 matches, with the lone loss coming against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Making a high percentage of first serves has always been key for Tiafoe given his easy pop on the first serve and relatively attackable second serve. If he can do so, this is the perfect environment for Tiafoe to turn around his 1-3 head-to-head against Dimitrov, who is in only his second U.S. Open quarterfinal in 14 attempts. They have split two previous matches on outdoor hard courts, with Dimitrov winning a third-set tiebreak at the 2018 Canadian Open and Tiafoe pulling out a tight four-setter at the 2019 Australian Open.
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Aryna Sabalenka (-330) vs. Qinwen Zheng
This is a rematch of last year's U.S. Open quarterfinal and this year's Australian Open final, both of which Sabalenka dominated in straight sets while dropping just five games in each match. Zheng's playing the best tennis of her career, with a 16-1 record in her last 17 matches, but 11 of those victories came on clay as she won the Palermo Open and Olympic gold medal back-to-back. The world No. 7 should be able to keep this match a little closer than their previous two, but Sabalenka's superior power off the ground should help the second-ranked Belarusian dictate rallies as usual, and Sabalenka's aggressive game is a better fit for hard courts than Zheng's all-around skill set.
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Alexander Zverev (-165) vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz will certainly have belief in this match considering the American came back from a two-set deficit to beat Zverev at Wimbledon, but Zverev was nursing a knee injury during that match and has never been at his best on grass. On a hard court, this clash of big servers should tilt in the German's favor, though their head-to-head is close to even. Zverev leads 5-4 overall, and they have split four previous meetings on outdoor hard courts. The fourth-ranked Zverev has had far better results than the 12th-ranked Fritz in the best-of-five set Grand Slam format over the years, as Zverev has an impressive 8-4 career record in major quarterfinals while Fritz is 0-4 at this stage, including quarterfinal losses in three of the previous four Grand Slam events.
Paula Badosa (-140) vs. Emma Navarro
Badosa was one of the top performers on the WTA Tour in the hard-court swing leading up to the U.S. Open, and the former world No. 2 has continued her strong play here, improving to 14-2 in her last 16 matches. Navarro has a 17-spot edge in the rankings over the 29th-ranked Spaniard, but this clash between New York City natives in the Big Apple will be played on Badosa's terms, as she's the more aggressive player while Navarro's more reactive, relying on counterpunching and borderline pushing to win matches. Navarro just eliminated American compatriot Coco Gauff from a second consecutive Grand Slam, but Gauff played a major role in her own defeat, coughing up 19 double faults in Navarro's 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 victory. Their only previous meeting came on the clay courts of Rome in May, with Badosa triumphing 1-6, 6-4, 6-2.
