This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both U.S. Open women's semifinals will be played Thursday at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. For the first time since 2003, multiple American men and multiple American women are in the U.S. Open semifinals. The women will be up first and have a chance to set up an all-American final, but both Americans will be playing their first Grand Slam semifinals against opponents who are back at this stage after playing in last year's U.S. Open semifinals.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
U.S. Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Navarro
Aryna Sabalenka (-425) vs. Emma Navarro (+320)
Sabalenka has been the best hard-court player on the WTA Tour all year, as she's now 12-0 in hard-court Grand Slam matches in 2024 and is currently riding a 10-match winning streak on the surface, having claimed a WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati leading up to the U.S. Open. Her current winning streak includes three victories over top-10 opponents, including a 6-1, 6-2 drubbing of seventh-ranked Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinals. This is the ninth career Grand Slam semifinal for the big-hitting Belarusian, the fourth consecutive U.S. Open semifinal and the seventh semifinal appearance in her last eight Grand Slam appearances.
Navarro has shown she can more than hold her own against top players, as she knocked out third-ranked Coco Gauff for a second consecutive Grand Slam in the fourth round here and picked up a hard-court win over Sabalenka 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 at Indian Wells in March. Sabalenka got revenge on the Grand Slam stage with a 6-2, 6-3 win in the Round of 16 at the French Open. The court conditions here are markedly faster than at either of those two venues, which leans in favor of Sabalenka. On the other hand, Navarro has been steadily improving all year, reaching the third round at the Australian Open, fourth round at the French Open, her first career Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon and now her first major semifinal at the U.S. Open. The crowd will certainly be in the American underdog's corner, and Navarro's DraftKings Sportsbook odds understate her chances considering she has already beaten Sabalenka on hard courts this year, but the world No. 2 is rightfully favored given Sabalenka's immaculate recent form.
U.S. Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka def. Navarro 6-2, 7-6
U.S. Open Odds: Pegula vs. Muchova
Jessica Pegula (-175) vs. Karolina Muchova (+140)
Pegula was 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals heading into Wednesday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium and seemed likely to take another defeat at the hands of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, but surprisingly, it was Swiatek who played like she had never won a Grand Slam quarterfinal, or a Grand Slam match at all for that matter, committing 40 unforced errors to hand Pegula a semifinal berth on a platter, 6-2, 6-4. Pegula will take it, though, and the sixth-ranked American certainly earned her spot with her prior performances, having yet to drop a set in this tournament and posting 14 wins in her last 15 matches. Muchova's unlikely to just hand her this match like Swiatek did in the previous round, but Pegula's recent surge includes a 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 win over Muchova in Cincinnati on a fast hard court where Pegula's compact, flat strokes penetrated the court and robbed Muchova of the time she needed to set up her superior variety.
Muchova also has yet to drop a set in this tournament, and she has gotten better with every event in 2024 after coming back from a wrist injury that cost her most of the season. Her last tournament prior to the injury was the 2023 U.S. Open, where Muchova reached the semifinals before falling to eventual champion Gauff. Muchova also reached the semifinals of the 2021 Australian Open and was the runner-up at the 2023 French Open, so she has tasted victory in a Grand Slam semifinal before while this is uncharted territory for her opponent. While Muchova has proven she can handle the moment, Pegula will have the support of the American crowd. A major key to this match will be Muchova's first serve percentage, as Pegula is among the best on the WTA Tour at punishing second serve returns. Muchova made 80 percent of her first serves in her second-round win over Naomi Osaka and 78 percent in her 6-1, 6-4 quarterfinal triumph over Beatriz Haddad Maia, getting broken just once in each match, but she has dipped to 55 percent or fewer in two of her other three matches.
U.S. Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Muchova def. Pegula 7-5, 3-6, 7-6
