2025 U.S. Open: Title Favorite Faces Potential Labor Day Test
Fourth-round play continues Monday at the U.S. Open from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Both of the reigning Wimbledon champions have been racking up victories at Grand Slams recently, but one could require a laborious Labor Day effort to beat an opponent that has already defeated them this year.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Alexander Bublik (+900) vs. Jannik Sinner
Bublik is the only player other than Carlos Alcaraz to beat Sinner this year, as the enigmatic big server notched a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over the world No. 1 on the grass courts of Halle in June. Bublik won just six games when these two met in the French Open quarterfinals, but he matches up better on faster surfaces, where it's easier for Bublik to avoid the drawn-out rallies that tilt Sinner's way thanks to the Italian's elite mix of power off the ground and court coverage. Bublik will need a strong serving day to help minimize Sinner's opportunities in return games, while the grind of the season could be starting to wear on Sinner, who had his C-game at best in his four-set third-round win over Denis Shapovalov, during which the 27th-seeded Canadian had a break point to go up 4-0 at one set all. Sinner was broken three times in that match, and three breaks could be all Bublik needs if they're well-timed.
Honorable Mention
Jaume Munar (+200) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Iga Swiatek (-350) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Swiatek's regaining the aura of invincibility that abandoned her earlier this year. The six-time Grand Slam champion has won 10 consecutive Grand Slam matches, losing only two sets over that span. Swiatek hasn't lost prior to the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since Wimbledon of 2024, while the 30-year-old Alexandrova hasn't reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal in her career. Iga's 4-2 head-to-head edge isn't overwhelming, but Swiatek plays her best tennis at Grand Slams, while Alexandrova's level tends to drop in big matches.
Honorable Mention
Amanda Anisimova (-400) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+110) vs. Andrey Rublev
Auger-Aliassime is coming off a big four-set win over No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev, and the Canadian should continue to enjoy plenty of crowd support from North American fans against Rublev, who holds a 12-spot edge in the rankings over FAA at No. 15. Rublev has a dominant 7-1 edge head-to-head, but best-of-five set tennis is a different animal, and these two have never faced off in a Grand Slam before. Six of their previous eight encounters went to a deciding third set, so they have been separated by thin margins in the past, and Rublev's hot temper has a much greater tendency to boil over and cost him at some point in extended matches, which has contributed to him failing to make it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam since the 2024 Australian Open. Auger-Aliassime should get more free points on serve, and Rublev will be easier to tick off with the crowd against him, which is another advantage FAA hasn't enjoyed in their previous encounters. Rublev hasn't faced a top-100 player yet in this tournament and was pushed to five sets in his last match by 173rd-ranked Coleman Wong.
Karolina Muchova (-165) vs. Marta Kostyuk
Something about the U.S. Open brings out the best in Muchova, or maybe it has just been when the oft-injured Czech is healthiest over the past couple years. Either way, she's two wins from a third consecutive semifinal showing in New York. The 11th-seeded Muchova's game plan against the 27th-seeded Kostuk won't have to change much compared to what Muchova did to beat the 21st-ranked Linda Noskova in the third round, as Kostyuk is another big hitter without much of a Plan B to her game. Muchova's superior craftiness and net game should allow her to take Kostyuk out of the Ukrainian's comfort zone in this first career meeting between the two.
Honorable Mention
Naomi Osaka (+120) vs. Coco Gauff
