Midseason Tennis Power Rankings

Midseason Tennis Power Rankings

Two of the four Grand Slams are in the books, but there's still plenty of meaningful tennis to be played over the second half of 2024. Wimbledon and the Olympics are both coming up within the next two months before we head back across the Atlantic for the summer hard-court swing and U.S. Open, then round out the season with the year's biggest indoor events. The power rankings below assess where the top contenders stand after the French Open.

ATP Power Rankings

1: Jannik Sinner (ATP ranking: 1; 2024 Year-to-Date (YTD) ranking: 1)

Sinner's in a bittersweet spot coming out of the French Open, as he lost a five-set thriller to rival and eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals but walked away with a nice consolation prize, taking over the No. 1 ranking for the first time in the 22-year-old Italian's career. With an outstanding 33-3 record in 2024, Sinner has been the toughest player to beat all year, and he captured his first career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. His well-rounded game will make Sinner a title contender at Wimbledon on grass and the Olympics on clay, but he should be especially tough to beat during the American summer swing and post-U.S. Open indoor-heavy portion of the tennis calendar on hard courts. 

2: Carlos Alcaraz (Rank: 2; YTD: 3)

If I had to pick one player for the next three, five or 10 years, it would be Alcaraz, but for the remainder of 2024, he's behind Sinner by the narrowest of margins. Alcaraz has every shot in the book at his disposal, and he'll be a top-two favorite at every tournament he enters after becoming the youngest player ever to win a Grand Slam on all three surfaces with his 2024 French Open title. Alcaraz has a chance to complete a career golden slam before his 22nd birthday if he can win the Olympics at Roland Garros and next year's Australian Open, but his floor is a bit lower on hard courts than other surfaces, which puts him at a slight disadvantage relative to Sinner right now.

3: Alexander Zverev (Rank: 4; YTD: 2)

Zverev has a Grand Slam-sized hole on his resume, but he's been knocking on the door in 2024, falling in five sets to Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open semifinals after beating Alcaraz, then dropping a five-setter to Alcaraz in the French Open final. The 27-year-old German will be looking to defend his gold medal at the Olympics, and he currently sits second in the race to Turin (year-to-date ranking points), behind only Sinner. Unfortunately for Zverev, a gap has developed between Sinner/Alcaraz and the field; and the past 20 years have taught us there aren't many opportunities left over for the field when multiple all-time greats are hogging the major titles.

4: Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 5; YTD: 5)

Medvedev will be relieved that the clay-court season is in the rear-view mirror, though he'll have to deal with his least-favorite surface one more time at the Olympics. The Russian tactician proved he can be a factor on grass with a Wimbledon semifinal run last year, and once play shifts back to hard courts, Medvedev will reclaim his spot among the top contenders. He has been to six hard-court Grand Slam finals, including his triumph in the 2021 U.S. Open championship match over Novak Djokovic.

5: Novak Djokovic (Rank: 3; YTD: 10)

Even before tearing the meniscus in his right knee and subsequently withdrawing from the French Open prior to the quarterfinals, Djokovic was clearly lagging behind Sinner and Alcaraz. The 37-year-old legend won three of his record 24 Grand Slam titles last year but has yet to reach the final of any tournament in 2024. Even if he heals in time for Wimbledon and the Olympics, Djokovic will be fighting an uphill battle at those tournaments. He has earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming tough circumstances before, so Djokovic doesn't drop out of the top five just yet, especially with nobody behind him making a convincing case to move up.

6: Casper Ruud (Rank: 7; YTD: 4)

Ruud's non-clay form slipped in 2023, but he has looked far more reliable on hard courts in 2024, so the three-time Grand Slam runner-up (2022 French Open, 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 French Open) shouldn't be counted out from making some deep runs over the second half of the season. He's 39-10 overall this year, with a 21-5 record on clay and 18-5 on hard. Ruud's outlook also gets a boost from the Olympics being on clay, as 11 of his 12 career titles have come on the dirt. 

7: Alex de Minaur (Rank: 9; YTD: 7)

De Minaur's coming off his first career French Open quarterfinal, and just the second Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career. It has been a year of firsts for the 25-year-old Aussie, who broke into the top 10 for the first time in January and currently sits at a career-high No. 9. It wouldn't be surprising to see de Minaur add another major quarterfinal or two to his ledger in 2024.

8: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Rank: 11; YTD: 6)

Tsitsipas can't seem to make any progress against Alcaraz, as he fell to 0-6 in their head-to-head with a straight-set loss in the quarterfinals of the French Open, but it's hard to fault the 25-year-old Athens native too much for that shortcoming. Other than that, things aren't going too poorly for Tsitsipas. He won the Monte Carlo Masters 1000 for the third time this year and has a solid 28-10 overall record. Tsitsipas has historically fared far worse at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open (never reached a quarterfinal) than the Australian and French (two finals and four more semifinals), but he's set up well for a strong second half of 2024.

9: Andrey Rublev (Rank: 6; YTD: 8)

Like Tsitsipas, Rublev has a Masters 1000 title under his belt in 2024, winning the Madrid Open in May. The big-hitting Russian has put together some impressive results in best-of-three set matches but has been hard-capped in best-of-five to this point, with a 0-10 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Until he finds more Grand Slam success, the world No. 6 won't be as high in the power rankings.

10: Grigor Dimitrov (Rank: 10; YTD: 9)

Dimitrov gets this spot over two players at opposite stages of their respective careers: 38-year-old Rafael Nadal and 21-year-old Holger Rune. The 33-year-old Bulgarian has enjoyed a renaissance in 2024, getting back into the top 10 for the first time in five years after reaching the Miami Open final in March, then reaching the French Open quarterfinals in June to complete the career box set of Grand Slam and Masters 1000 quarterfinals. He became the sixth active player to accomplish that feat, joining Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, Andy Murray and Marin Cilic. Dimitrov makes this list on the back of his recent form rather than the rest of his decorated career, though.

WTA Power Rankings

1: Iga Swiatek (WTA Ranking: 1, YTD: 1)

Swiatek grew up idolizing Nadal, and she might just be the closest thing we have seen to the Spanish legend on the WTA Tour. Their dominance on clay is comparable, and while Swiatek's game doesn't translate to faster surfaces as well as prime Nadal's did, there also isn't a Djokovic or Roger Federer equivalent for the 23-year-old star to contend with. Fresh off a fourth French Open title in five years, Swiatek will be the heavy favorite at the same venue for the Olympics. She also has a great shot at winning the U.S. Open, where she triumphed in 2022, but Wimbledon has been her worst major to date, with last year's quarterfinal run representing the Pole's highwater mark at the All England Club.

2: Aryna Sabalenka (Rank: 3, YTD: 2)

Sabalenka had a streak of six consecutive Grand Slam semifinals or better snapped by Mirra Andreeva in the French Open quarterfinals, and she slipped just behind Coco Gauff in the rankings as a result of that loss. The world No. 3 is a proven all-court performer and already has a Grand Slam title under her belt in 2024 at the Australian Open, so she still gets the No. 2 spot in these power rankings. Sabalenka also reached the final of both clay-court WTA 1000 events, losing to Swiatek twice, so anything short of a semifinal or medal at every big remaining event would be viewed as a disappointment.

3: Coco Gauff (Rank: 2, YTD: 4)

Gauff's biggest obstacle to success is her inability to beat Swiatek, against whom the 20-year-old American is now 1-11 after losing in the French Open semifinals. Gauff has fared just fine against everyone else, though, and it will be interesting to see how she handles the moment at the U.S. Open, where she will be defending a Grand Slam title for the first time. Most of Gauff's best results have come on clay, so she certainly won't mind one extra big tournament on that surface.

4: Elena Rybakina (Rank: 4, YTD: 3)

There's a gap between the top four and the rest of the field, with Rybakina rounding out the cream of the crop on the WTA Tour. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has underperformed in Grand Slams this year (Australian Open second round, French Open quarterfinal) but has been elite across the rest of the schedule. Rybakina's 34-6 record in 2024 includes the only win anybody has posted over Swiatek on clay, and the big server has compiled three 500-level titles to go with two 1000-level runner-up finishes.

5: Jasmine Paolini (Rank: 7, YTD: 5)

Paolini sits at a career-high No. 7 after winning her first career WTA 1000 title in Dubai in February and adding her first Grand Slam final appearance at the recently completed French Open. Not too shabby for a 28-year-old who came into this year without having reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal in her career. Paolini's 6-2, 6-1 loss to Swiatek in that final shows that a sizable gap still exists between her and the pinnacle of the sport, but the 5-foot-4 Italian's playing like the best of the rest after the established top four.

6: Danielle Collins (Rank: 11, YTD: 6)

Collins put together a 15-match winning streak starting in March, which included her first career WTA 1000 title in Miami on hard courts and a clay-court title in Charleston. She cooled off with a second-round loss at the French Open, but Collins has an impressive 35-5 record against players other than Swiatek and Sabalenka since the start of the Australian Open. With fifth-ranked Jessica Pegula just getting back on the court after a rib injury, Collins is America's No. 2 contender for big titles at the moment. Collins' success has come after the 30-year-old announced at the Australian Open that this would be her final season on the WTA Tour.

7: Naomi Osaka (Rank: 125, YTD: 45)

It's hard to have a more encouraging second-round loss than Osaka did at the French Open, even though the pain of letting a match point slip away against Swiatek might keep the four-time Grand Slam champion up at night. All four of Osaka's Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts, but her ability to push Swiatek to the limit at Roland Garros shows that Osaka has committed to improving her footwork on other surfaces in her post-pregnancy return to the sport. That improvement bodes well for her chances at Wimbledon, where Osaka's elite serve and power off the ground should make her a contender. Pay little attention to Osaka's current ranking, as the level she showed at the French Open suggests she has shaken off the rust and is ready to return to the title contender mix on faster surfaces. 

8: Mirra Andreeva (Rank: 23, YTD: 15)

Andreeva had a breakout run at the French Open, reaching the semifinals before running out of gas against Paolini. The 17-year-old Russian would be even higher on this list coming off that result if not for the rest of the schedule except for the Olympics shifting away from clay. Andreeva has the skill set to succeed on all surfaces, as evidenced by her impressive 14-5 career record in Grand Slams, but clay is by far her best surface at this point. The extra time to set up on clay allows her to put her variety to good use and more effectively absorb the power from big hitters that can overwhelm her on faster surfaces, which is why Andreeva is 17-7 on clay and just 14-10 on other surfaces in her young career.

9: Emma Navarro (Rank: 18, YTD: 10)

Navarro is enjoying a breakout year at age 23. The 2021 NCAA singles champion is 33-13 in 2024, including a win over Sabalenka at Indian Wells. Sabalenka got revenge at the French Open, but not before Navarro broke through to a Grand Slam Round of 16 for the first time, ending Madison Keys' six-match winning streak along the way. Navarro has shown steady improvement all year, and the New York City native will enjoy plenty of crowd support at the U.S. Open, where she can do major damage with a good draw. 

10: Marketa Vondrousova (Rank: 6, YTD: 19)

This final spot came down to Vondrousova or Ons Jabeur, and just like in last year's Wimbledon final, the edge goes to Vondrousova. After a poor start to the year, Vondrousova has rounded into form recently. She got steamrolled by Swiatek in the French Open quarterfinals, but that was the third time in the last four Grand Slams that the 24-year-old Czech has gotten at least that far. Vondrousova has found success on all surfaces in her career, with a 2019 French Open runner-up finish on clay and 2021 Olympic silver medal on hard courts complementing last year's grass-court Wimbledon title. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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