This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open women's final will be played Saturday. This is the second career Grand Slam final for both participants, with one having broken through for a title earlier this year and the other still searching for her first singles Grand Slam title. It's no secret which player will have the support of most of the New York crowd, but a contrast in styles and competitive head-to-head history suggests this should be a memorable championship match. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in the final Grand Slam women's singles match of 2023.
US Open Women's Final Odds: Sabalenka vs. Gauff
Both of these deserving finalists bring impressive winning streaks into the championship match, but one will have to be broken here. Gauff won the Cincinnati WTA 1000 leading up to the US Open, so she has won 11 consecutive matches heading into this one, all on American hard courts. At this tournament, the sixth-seeded American has been pushed to three sets three times, but Gauff has built a commanding third-set lead on all three occasions, winning every match convincingly. Prior to this recent stretch, the 19-year-old Gauff's best results had come on clay, including a runner-up finish at the 2022 French Open, where she lost the final 6-1, 6-3 to Iga Swiatek.
Sabalenka has already clinched the top spot in next week's updated rankings, thanks in large part to her Grand Slam success. She has made the semifinals or better in all four majors and won her first such title this year at the Australian Open. Between that tournament and this one, Sabalenka's a perfect 13-0 in hard-court Grand Slam matches in 2023. Her most recent victory was also Sabalenka's most difficult. After beginning the US Open with five dominant victories, she came out completely out of sorts against Madison Keys in the semifinals and fell behind 0-6, 3-5. From there, Sabalenka showcased her newfound ingenuity, dialing back the power and making sure to keep the ball in the court, which forced Keys to earn it and gave the American a chance to tighten up. Emboldened by Keys' stumble serving for the match at 5-4, Sabalenka raised her level in the second-set tiebreak, taking it 7-1. In the third, Sabalenka got down a break but fought back again and ultimately won the match tiebreak 10-5 to come away with a 0-6, 7-6 (1), 7-6 (5) victory.
Nerves will play a part in the first US Open final for each of these players, but the fact that Sabalenka has already experienced winning a Grand Slam, coupled with the feeling of playing with house money considering how close she came to losing in the semifinals should make it easier for the slight favorite to handle the pressure. Sabalenka should control most of the rallies with her superior power, but Gauff complements her defensive scrambling capabilities with the ability to go on the offensive when her opponent leaves the ball short, especially on the backhand side. Both players have a history of struggling with double faults under pressure and will look to make a healthy percentage of first serves to mitigate that weakness. Gauff has won three of the five previous meetings between these two, but their hard-court head-to-head is tied 2-2. Their most recent match was also the most lopsided, as Sabalenka blew out Gauff 6-4, 6-0 at Indian Wells in March.
US Open Women's Final Prediction: Sabalenka def. Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-4