This article is part of our Rounding Third series.
RotoWire's Tim Schuler and I paired up to draft two teams in the NFBC Main Event, one a week ago live in Las Vegas, the other online this Saturday. In just one week, a lot can change - multiple closer situations have shifted dramatically, including Craig Kimbrel getting traded to the Dodgers, other players get hurt, and young players making rosters all are big catalysts for change. Before we get into the particulars of our two teams, here are some of the big changes from the two weekends.
Three Feet High and Rising:
- Craig Kimbrel leapt from 275 (19.5) a week ago all the way to 40 (3.10) in the span of a week following his trade to the Dodgers. The selection of Kimbrel at 3.10 in my league is the earliest he's gone so far in 23 Main Events.
- When we took Jake McGee at 213 (15.3) a week ago in Las Vegas, it was the earliest that he had gone the entire weekend. After Gabe Kapler's comments this week put McGee at the head of the pecking order, if not necessarily as the full-time closer, he instead went at 151 (11.1) in my draft and 117 in one Main Event.
- Broc Miller from FTN took Julio Rodriguez at 256 (18.1) in the Vegas draft, and in one early draft Rodriguez dropped all the way to pick 382. This past weekend Rodriguez skyrocketed up to 140 (10.5) and as early as 124 elsewhere, as all the news suggests that he'll make the Mariners' Opening Day roster.
For more on this draft, Broc, FTN's Matty Davis and RazzBall's Rudy Gamble joined me on Thursday's podcast. Hope you enjoy it!
- Similarly, the Tigers announced that Spencer Torkelson had officially made the team during Saturday's draft (up from 324 to 229) and the Mariners said that Matt Brash had won their fifth starter's job (392 to 262).
Getting the Lead Out:
- Jacob deGrom's stress reaction in his right scapula (shoulder) was the predominant story over the weekend, given how quickly it evolved. Last weekend, everyone was pushing deGrom up, including one league where he went second overall and as the first pitcher. After he was ruled out of throwing at all for at least four weeks, pending another examination at that time, deGrom's stock has spiraled, down to 223 (15.13) in my league, compared to eighth overall last week.
- Closers that lost their jobs really dropped off the radar this weekend. Will Smith (the ATL version) saw his value rocked, as he didn't even get drafted this weekend. Blake Treinen dropped from 109 (8.4) to 345 (23.15), and Camilo Doval dropped from 138 to 224 (15.14) - not as far as I expected him to drop.
- Poor Riley Greene broke his foot and will be out 6-to-8 weeks, enough to send him from 245 to the ranks of the undrafted.
- Some fool in Vegas drafted Cody Bellinger with the 93rd pick (7.3), thinking that he'd need to find a power-speed option there and that Bellinger had demonstrated a turnaround in the playoffs last year. Oh wait, that was me and Tim. This past weekend his Main ADP was 129, with a max pick of 167, going 136 (10.1) in our league this weekend.
Vegas Vacation
Before discussing our draft, here's the full grid from the first league. We're Team 3:
Click here to enlarge the image.
In the NFBC drafts, you get a chance to try to get your optimal draft slot. You rank your choices from 1-to-15, and then the order of selecting your spot from those ranks is generated randomly. We were the fifth team in our league to get a slot, and got our third choice with the third spot. I'm not certain whether it's better to optimize for the first round, or draft where you're most comfortable drafting generally in a snake draft. Typically, I like being in the middle, where the gaps between picks aren't as long. But there's also a pretty clear top-5 in mind - Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette and Gerrit Cole. You can quibble with the order, and you can also argue to put Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in that top five if you want, but most often those are your top five. We wanted to get one of those five if possible, and got it with 1.3 and Jose Ramirez. Toby Guevin, aka @BatFlipCrazy, popularized the "Pocket Aces" strategy in the Main Event and was drafting at 1.2 in our league. He did not veer from that in this league, taking Cole at 1.2 (and he confirmed Friday night that was his plan), so we knew the night before that we'd be taking Ramirez at 1.3 and could plan accordingly.
After that, obviously it's a lot trickier. Lucky for us, three of our targets for the 28th pick were still remaining - Liam Hendriks, Yordan Alvarez and Julio Urías. We decided to go with Hendriks early, and then wait to fill our second closer slot later. We'll revisit that strategy discussion later. Luckily, we still had a choice between Alvarez and Urias for 3.33, and went with Alvarez - and went the opposite route this past weekend. It'll be interesting to see which roster-building approach worked better over the course of the season.
Here are our full picks in order, with brief commentary when I deem it interesting appropriate.
1.3 Jose Ramirez
2.28 Liam Hendriks
3.33 Yordan Alvarez - It's nerve-wracking not to have an ace after three picks, but we really wanted Alvarez's high-average power potential here, especially now that he qualifies in the outfield.
4.58 Will Smith (C) - My fixation with taking Smith and then an ace made me overlook that Byron Buxton was still available. I think Buxton would have been a better fit.
5.63 Joe Musgrove - After passing on Urias et al at 3.33, Musgrove was my target all along. Really happy to get him here.
6.88 Alek Manoah - Another frequent target and fist-pump, but maybe we should have gambled that he would have been there at 93?
7.93 Cody Bellinger - I noted at the time on Twitter that "... (we) got sniped on speed options in a couple of spots here unfortunately," after taking Bellinger. In particular, Tommy Edman went at 7.92, and he would have fit in nicely. Now we have to live with the regret of taking Bellinger over other more solid bats or arms in this spot. I'm not writing Bellinger off completely, but this spring hasn't been encouraging.
8.118 Alex Bregman - I do think it's valuable to take perceived bargains when they present themselves. I did it here with Bregman, and again in a few picks.
9.123 Luis Garcia
10.148 Dylan Carlson
11.153 Fernando Tatis Jr. - We did the damn thing with Tatis. Didn't expect to get him in this draft, but he slipped farther than I expected and he fits a need, both by position and by the need for speed. At 153, it's still the Main Event latest pick on Tatis to boot.
12.178 Marcell Ozuna
13.183 Jose Urquidy
14.208 Josh Rojas - At the time, I mentioned that we "... played chicken and lost with Jonathan Villar. Very upset about that." Rojas was our consolation prize, so now we're even more upset about that.
15.213 Jake McGee
16.238 Jonathan Schoop
17.243 Brandon Crawford - With us waiting on Tatis (and now Rojas), we wanted to add up on the depth in the MI.
18.268 Corey Kluber
19.273 Frank Schwindel
20.298 Isaiah Kiner-Falefa - This turned out to be more necessary that we realized, but there's still a playing time concern for IKF given that the Yankees still have to find room for all of Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu and Josh Donaldson, assuming that the DH slot isn't occupied by one of them.
21.303 Andrew Heaney
22.328 Jonathan Loaisiga
23.333 Michael Piñeda - Piñeda is fine, but I blanked on Carlos Hernandez, who I prefer. On the bright side, once he's ready to go, at least Piñeda is secured for the job, whereas Hernandez is a little more volatile.
24.358 Jake Fraley - Pretty happy with Fraley, which probably means he'll stink or not play instead.
25.363 Kyle Gibson
26.388 Taijuan Walker
27.393 Ryan Jeffers
28.418 Pavin Smith
29.423 Domingo Acevedo
30.448 Carlos Santana - At least he plays! He'll likely be active for us in Week 1, with Schoop now for sure slotted at 2B to begin the season.
Our full roster:
C - Will Smith, Ryan Jeffers
1B/3B/CR - Frank Schwindel, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman
2B/SS/MI - Jonathan Schoop, Brandon Crawford, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa
OF - Yordan Alvarez, Cody Bellinger, Dylan Carlson, Marcell Ozuna, Jake Fraley
UT - Carlos Santana (for now, depends on who has more games)
SP - Joe Musgrove, Alek Manoah, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Corey Kluber, Andrew Heaney, Michael Piñeda, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker
RP - Liam Hendriks, Jake McGee, Jonathan Loaisiga, Domingo Acevedo (since dropped for David Robertson)
Bench Bats - Fernando Tatis Jr., Josh Rojas, Pavin Smith (since dropped for Seth Beer).
Having two "stashes" in Tatis and Rojas is a bummer, and I feel like we're one starting pitcher short. This team can contend, but it feels incomplete.
Finding Value From the Middle
In our second Main Event, we found ourselves drafting seventh, in a comfortable middle spot, but outside of the range of the obvious top five. Tim and I mapped out three plans starting with the seventh pick, one each for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper and Corbin Burnes. Ultimately we narrowed it down to Vlad vs. Harper, even though we knew that with Jacob deGrom's shoulder injury the starting pitching would be scarcer earlier. But we had a thought that either Julio Urias or one of the top two closers would get to us in the second round, or we'd get a stud hitter that dropped too far. We ended up getting Urias with that second pick, after getting Harper in the first. Here's the full grid - again, we're Team 7.
Click here to enlarge the image.
Again, here are the individual picks in order, with commentary as deemed necessary.
1.7 Bryce Harper
2.24 Julio Urias
3.37 Starling Marte - We thought that Marte's speed paired well with our first two picks, though taking him ensured we wouldn't get Raisel Iglesias. Already, our draft was veering away from what we did in the first Main Event.
4.54 Matt Olson - This was our most critical pick of the draft. Already by this point, six closers had been taken, leaving only (in my mind, at least) three-to-four "safe" closers - in order, I view them as Kenley Jansen, Jordan Romano, Ryan Pressly and Aroldis Chapman, though I've already been on record as not wanting to draft Chapman for his regular cost (67 - or 5.7 in 28 Main Event drafts). But Olson had been pushed down so far from where he was going even a week ago, though nothing negative at all has occurred with his set-up with the Braves. Given that we took Marte in the third round for the speed, sacrificing some power, we decided Olson was a perfect fit and if it cost us Jansen, so be it. Alas, it cost us all four closers, setting the tone for the rest of the draft. It was pretty much here that we set on a course acknowledging we'd come out of the draft light on saves, but hopefully allowing us to be strong elsewhere.
5.67 Javier Baez - I don't have a whole lot of conviction about this pick, other than Baez gives us some speed, some power, and two positions. We could have gone many different routes, including getting an SP2 with this option.
6.84 Alek Manoah
7.97 Eloy Jimenez - As Todd Zola has suggested, getting the "max" pick on a player isn't always a cause for celebration. It was here. But take a look at the other hitters in this round - included among them are Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon. This is the land of the "good hitters with no speed" - and that's what fell overall in this draft.
8.114 Scott Barlow - By now we had already lost out on Giovanny Gallegos, Corey Knebel, Taylor Rogers and Mark Melancon - most of the "kind of safe" closer tier. Barlow belongs in this tier, especially with Josh Staumont having a bad spring. By no means do I think we're in the clear, but it was time to get at least one closer.
9.127 Sonny Gray - I love Gray in Minnesota and he was the last starting pitcher in this tier. We made this pick relatively quickly.
10.144 Dansby Swanson - If you follow me at all, you know how I think about Swanson, and that this was a steal.
11.157 Willy Adames - The counter-argument to the pick of Swanson is that we didn't read the room right, and allowed us to miss on Jake McGee and Andrew Kittredge as a second closer behind our admittedly weaker second closer. It's a valid argument. I'd also argue that the room allowed us to build a pretty sweet offense. We also vowed after this point to go after starting pitchers in volume, eschew the shaky closers in the teens, and hopefully avoid chasing two-step starters during the season, dedicating our FAAB on the pitching side instead on possible closers. It's by no means a secure route, but I feel at least a sense of purpose going this way.
12.174 Josh Donaldson
13.187 Christian Vazquez
14.204 Adam Wainwright
15.217 Hyun-Jin Ryu - Wainwright and Ryu will get us lots of innings for good teams - I think those are underrated commodities, even in this event.
16.234 Yuli Gurriel - We missed out on Spencer Torkelson, but Gurriel might be a better fit for us anyhow, giving us a higher batting average floor to compensate for Baez's volatility there.
17.247 Josiah Gray - Alas we didn't get Jon Gray to give us all three Grays, but this one gives a higher strikeout ceiling than our last two pitchers, albeit with a lot more risk. Still I like his pedigree and what I've seen from him this spring.
18.264 Michael Brantley - One of these years Brantley will stop being worth this draft cost, but I don't think it'll be this year.
19.277 Corey Kluber
20.294 Tony Gonsolin - Gonsolin is ahead of Andrew Heaney for the fifth starter's job, but that's really the fourth starter's job for the Dodgers with Trevor Bauer still out on administrative leave.
21.307 Sean Murphy - Unlike our previous Main, we waited longer catchers and let them come to us at the end of their respective tiers.
22.324 Eric Lauer
23.337 Andrew McCutchen
24.354 Josh Harrison - Harrison in particular was a good fit for us - he's eligible at 2B/3B/OF, so he fits in a lot of spots - plus, our MI is a shortstop (Adames), our CR is a first baseman (Gurriel), so getting Harrison in theory allows us to take one less reserve hitter, and one more RP speculative play.
25.367 Jonathan Loaisiga - One of these days I'll learn to spell "Loaisiga" without having to double-check it.
26.384 Miles Mikolas
27.397 Joey Wendle
28.414 Hector Neris
29.427 Ken Giles - With Giles out for at least a couple of weeks, I probably should have gone with Greg Holland, who went immediately after this pick, and paired Holland with our round 30 pick to have two bites of the Texas closer apple.
30.444 Spencer Patton
Our full roster:
C - Christian Vazquez, Sean Murphy
1B/3B/CR - Matt Olson, Josh Donaldson, Yuli Gurriel
2B/SS/MI - Javy Baez, Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames
OF - Bryce Harper, Starling Marte, Eloy Jimenez, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen
UT - Josh Harrison (Joey Wendle)
SP - Julio Urias, Alek Manoah, Sonny Gray, Adam Wainwright, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josiah Gray, Corey Kluber, Tony Gonsolin, Eric Lauer, Miles Mikolas
RP - Scott Barlow, Jonathan Loaisiga, Hector Neris, Ken Giles, Spencer Patton
Overall, I think this team has more balance to it, with the obvious exception of saves. I harbor no illusions that it'll be easy to find them off the waiver wire, but it can be done. And hopefully we can allocate more resources to that quest without having to chase too many starters.
