This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, August 21
- Year-to-Date Record: 137-136-1
- Prior Article: 1-3 (-3.02 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Use RotoWire's MLB odds page when placing bets on the best sports betting sites to ensure you have the most competitive and up-to-date odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Miami Marlins 
I had the Diamondbacks yesterday and their offense flamed out, but they did cover the -1.5 run line. I will go back to the well again with Arizona against a weak right-handed pitcher (Roddery Munoz) and go over their team total this time, instead of a full game over.
Munoz is 2-7 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He is even worse in his last five starts with a 7.77 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Marlins
- Diamondbacks OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox 
at Houston Astros 
I keep going back to overs in Red Sox games against right-handed pitching and they keep cashing. We also get a returning Justin Verlander against Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox jumped all over Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco in the first two games. With Triston Casas back, this lineup just got even stronger. We also have that awful Red Sox bullpen to help us.
I was very surprised this total was not at least 9.0 runs. Verlander's name value probably kept it at 8.5, but Criswell on the other side against this Astros lineup should push this one over again.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Astros
- Red Sox/Astros OVER 8.5 runs for 2 units (-114 BetRivers)
Chicago White Sox 
at San Francisco Giants 
This is an underrated way to bet on a game with a huge Moneyline (Giants -230) but you have to pick your spots. We have the worst team in baseball with the White Sox and possibly one of the worst all-time against a very strong starting pitcher (Logan Webb) in a great pitchers' park. The additional wrinkle to the game is that Garrett Crochet's innings are being limited now and the White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.
Webb has had 12 home starts with a 7-3-2 record for a 58 percent win percentage. But he has only had one bad start out of the 12. He has gone at least five innings in all of them, six innings in 11 out of 12 and seven innings in 9 out of 12. The dominance and durability at home for Webb are incredible.
I do not cover props, but Webb OVER 20.5 outs is in play also.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Giants
- Logan Webb to record a Win for 1 unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Giants -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+106 FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Diamondbacks OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Red Sox/Astros OVER 8.5 runs for 2 units (-114 BetRivers)
- Logan Webb to record a Win for 1 unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Giants -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+106 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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