College Baseball Picks: Opening Day Best Bets

This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.

College Baseball Picks Today: Opening Day Best Bets

When Eminem hit the elite bar on Square Dance, "Ohhh, it feels so good to be back," I felt that. It accurately sums up my excitement for the return of the 2024 College Baseball season. I dished out some fire futures bets such as my College World Series best bets and Golden Spikes Award picks. And if you know me, you'll have heard me say there's nothing better than a futures bet in any sport. It's a lot more profitable than game-to-game betting, but picking winners is something I'm usually accustomed to. 

After a "down" year for me in 2023, I totaled a 182-171 (52%) record and netted 30.79 units. With a lower volume, but more efficient 2022 record of 72-49 (60%) totaling 21.24 units, I'm looking to get back to that level. Knowing myself though, this may be the highest volume season I compose because I'm a degenerate just like you! Totally contradictory, I get it, but for God's sake, I'm only a man!

Let's see who makes the cut for Opening Day.

Quick note: DraftKings has not added any run line or totals bets thus far, just money lines.

Northeastern Huskies (+135) @ Arizona Wildcats (-175)

The pitching decision for the Huskies has yet to be announced, but using probabilities, it's almost definitely going to be either senior Wyatt Scotti or sophomore Aiven Cabral's game. Scotti is my first guess since he was the Friday night guy last season, but in the event that Cabral goes, I have no qualms either way. 

If you read any of my preseason articles, you know how much I love me some Northeastern in the year of our Lord 2024. Both pitchers are premier strike throwers, only combining for 27 free passes in 159.2 innings a season ago. Early in the season, especially for a team in the northeast, keeping runners off base and the ball in the yard is paramount. The Arizona offense lost their two best weapons in Chase Davis (STL Cardinals first-round pick) and Mac Bingham (transferred to LSU), not to mention a few others. Nevertheless, this offense finds way to hit no matter who is at the dish. The Husky pitching has to hone in on that pristine control to keep Zona at bay.

LHP Jackson Kent will draw the start for the Wildcats. It was an unimpressive rookie campaign for the lefty as he managed a 5.71 ERA in 18 appearances (only four starts). Kent allowed 61 hits in just 41 innings of work though, something Northeastern should be able to exploit. There's a ton of flash in the lineup that features Mike Sirota and Cam Maldonado. The story of Arizona has been the woes on the mound, so with a lot of mixing and matching, I would be surprised if Northeastern didn't hang at least a five-spot on Opening Day. 

I grabbed this line at +160 at the beginning of the week because it was another case of a dramatic misprice. However, I still believe the Huskies are too big of a dog. In fact, they should be the favorite. They're facing a team with suspect pitching, and an offense that has lost a lot of its production from 2023. The only advantage for Zona is the fact that they have been playing outside in the nice weather compared to their opponent. The thing is I believe once the markets realize how good this team is, we won't be seeing this Husky team as a big underdog for long. Expect Northeastern to be a dog with fleas this year!

Pick: Northeastern ML +135

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UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (-145) @ Campbell Camels (+114)

The Gauchos may end up being one of the most profitable betting teams in 2024. Another team I highlighted to you, UCSB will be sporting one of the best pitching staffs in the nation, led by junior righty Matt Ager. It breaks my heart to be more of a fader on the Campbell Camels, my Cinderella team of 2023. These are different times though. I believe the Camels will still be a good team, one that makes the field of 64, but I doubt it's the team that was Top 10 in nearly every major offensive category. Ager and the Gauchos definitely have the edge on Friday evening.

I need to caveat by saying it has not officially been announced that Ager is going, but it's highly likely. The issue with this sport is the lack of information. Not to mention, coaches sometimes mix up their usual rotation early in the season for a few reasons. But if it is indeed Ager, you're in for a treat. After shoving a 3.12 ERA and a 115 K/26 BB ratio across 92.1 IP a season ago, the projected first rounder will look to continue his ascension. He's battling a Campbell lineup that lost every key bat except for OF Lawson Harrill, who smashed 22 jimmies and 69 RBI's to go along with that elite .371 average. It is still an offense that has usually found a way to put runs on the board, but it's difficult fading an elite arm. 

Like UCSB, Campbell has yet to announce their starter. It's probably between Chance Daquila or transfer Derek Vartanian. With the loss of ace Cade Kuehler (drafted by the Braves), the team is counting on Vartanian to fill that void. However, I'm not buying into either guy before I see how their 2024 campaign unfolds. It's been a squad that faced a ton of pitching problems in 2023, so there should be room for the Gauchos offense to nab a few runs. 3B Zander Darby is a name to watch this season for UCSB after a solid .288 season with seven taters. The bulk of the damage should be done by OF Ivan Brethowr and C Aaron Parker. I'm not totally sold on this offense yet, but it should be good enough to steal game one.

You'll notice how big of a role pitching plays in this sport, even more than the MLB. Grabbing a solid -145 (I got it at -130) with elite arms on the mound is too good of a spot to pass up. Ultimately, this is something I can see shape up as a one-run game, so when the run line drops, it may not be a bad idea to try and shoot for a middle win the UCSB ML and Campbell +1.5 (assuming the vig isn't too crazy). To keep it simple though, give me UCSB to start 2024 off 1-0. 

Pick: UCSB ML -145

Kansas State Wildcats (-115) @ California Golden Bears (-115)

Another one of my sleeper teams is the Kansas State Wildcats. It's not a team with a ton of splash and flash, but they're dangerous. This weekend is not a series, but the Desert Invitational, an early season tournament that usually provides excitement in bunches. The starting pitching for K-State has a lot to prove this season, and Friday night guy Owen Boerema is no exception. After posting a cringe-worthy 5.06 ERA last year, he needs to come out strong against a capable Cal lineup.

The likely, but not confirmed starter Boerema is the definition of hit or miss. He shut down LSU last February for just one run and four hits in 4.1 innings, while racking up seven K's. He's also the same guy that got lit up against West Virginia for 10 hits and seven earned in six innings. He'll face a Bears lineup that sports two stars in OF Rodney Green and C Caleb Lomavita, who combined for 30 bombs and 81 RBI's in 2023. No push over. Boerema was good about keeping the ball in the yard last year (only six homers allowed), but there were times the walks got away from him. Both of those will need to be in check on Friday night.

Cal has projected 6'6" righty freshman, Trey Newmann to make his debut on Opening Day. Obviously, there is no college sample on the kid, but his high school numbers were staggering. He went 6-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 98 K's in 62.1 innings of work. High school is definitely a different level, but it's fair to say the team has a lot of confidence in Newmann to be an impact arm in year one. The Wildcats were a team that only hit 77 homers last season, so they will need to stick their game of getting on base, stealing, and executing with runners in scoring position. They will ask Brady Day and Kaelen Culpepper to set the tone. 

After I grabbed the Wildcats at even money, it quickly jolted out to a pick'em. K-State is an older team, so I'll give them the nod, especially because it's a series I believe they will win. In typical fashion, they need to hold a lead going into the 9th so the best closer in the nation, Tyson Neighbors, can slam the door. Close call, but K-State should get it done.

Pick: Kansas State ML -115

For my entire College Baseball slate, make sure you check out my Twitter @_JohnnyVTV