This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
I turn 50 on the last day of this summer, and boy do I feel every bit of that lately. Travel cancellations necessitated me driving the 835 miles between New Orleans and North Myrtle Beach last week, and only two stops at Whataburger along the way kept me going so I could make the trek in one day. The icing on the cake was my wife realizing she left a very important item back in our home near Charlotte the next morning, so I had to hop right back in the car and drive back to the state line to pick up the item from my mother, who was fortunately available to meet me at least part of the way on the journey. In short, I do not recommend driving nearly 1200 miles in an 18-hour period unless your profession requires it.
As I sat around attempting recover this past weekend, I was looking into some stats of one of my struggling fantasy teams (pick one; seriously) and came across the following dry spell from the normally reliable J.D. Martinez:
JD Martinez since his last homer nearly 80 PA ago 😳 pic.twitter.com/HYtutKzfzM
— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) July 5, 2022
Martinez, setting aside the craziness of 2020, has been the model of fantasy consistency, putting up huge numbers from 2014-2019 and bouncing back last season. He entered play Tuesday with an impressive .306/.376/.483 line this season even with this dry spell of production. He is still scoring runs (45), but
I turn 50 on the last day of this summer, and boy do I feel every bit of that lately. Travel cancellations necessitated me driving the 835 miles between New Orleans and North Myrtle Beach last week, and only two stops at Whataburger along the way kept me going so I could make the trek in one day. The icing on the cake was my wife realizing she left a very important item back in our home near Charlotte the next morning, so I had to hop right back in the car and drive back to the state line to pick up the item from my mother, who was fortunately available to meet me at least part of the way on the journey. In short, I do not recommend driving nearly 1200 miles in an 18-hour period unless your profession requires it.
As I sat around attempting recover this past weekend, I was looking into some stats of one of my struggling fantasy teams (pick one; seriously) and came across the following dry spell from the normally reliable J.D. Martinez:
JD Martinez since his last homer nearly 80 PA ago 😳 pic.twitter.com/HYtutKzfzM
— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) July 5, 2022
Martinez, setting aside the craziness of 2020, has been the model of fantasy consistency, putting up huge numbers from 2014-2019 and bouncing back last season. He entered play Tuesday with an impressive .306/.376/.483 line this season even with this dry spell of production. He is still scoring runs (45), but eight homers and 33 RBI in more than 300 plate appearances this season is very un-Martinez like. Unless he has a big summer, he will finish well short of his normal levels of production and preseason projections.
Martinez's struggles led me to dig into a hypothesis that older players feel like they're not doing well this year. Many a successful fantasy player have won their league with a smattering of old-and-boring vets on the team because those players tend to be fairly priced if not discounted by the market because of the lack of perceived upside in such players. Hell, how many years running now have we seen Nelson Cruz go late in drafts, with many saying this is the season he falls off only to watch him have another productive season at the plate? This appears to be that cliff year for Cruz, but kudos to him for defying the odds as long as he has.
The table below shows the league-wide statistics for all players ages 33 or older since the 2010 season. Note that their experience helps keep the walk and strikeout rates consistent, but this season has seen the lowest slugging rate for the age group since the 2014 season. The wOBA+ column shows how the age group compares to all other players in the league that given season:
Season | PA | HR | R | RBI | BB% | K% | ISO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | lgwoba | wOBA+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 38668 | 974 | 4197 | 4343 | 9% | 17% | 0.143 | 0.258 | 0.328 | 0.401 | 0.322 | 0.321 | 100 |
2011 | 36137 | 802 | 3746 | 3789 | 8% | 17% | 0.130 | 0.254 | 0.318 | 0.385 | 0.309 | 0.318 | 97 |
2012 | 30407 | 792 | 3316 | 3299 | 8% | 18% | 0.142 | 0.250 | 0.315 | 0.392 | 0.308 | 0.316 | 97 |
2013 | 29557 | 767 | 3088 | 3164 | 8% | 19% | 0.140 | 0.251 | 0.316 | 0.391 | 0.310 | 0.314 | 99 |
2014 | 29191 | 695 | 2993 | 3105 | 8% | 19% | 0.134 | 0.248 | 0.317 | 0.382 | 0.309 | 0.310 | 100 |
2015 | 26800 | 741 | 2853 | 2893 | 8% | 18% | 0.150 | 0.249 | 0.314 | 0.399 | 0.310 | 0.314 | 99 |
2016 | 28739 | 965 | 3414 | 3434 | 9% | 19% | 0.168 | 0.258 | 0.328 | 0.427 | 0.325 | 0.317 | 103 |
2017 | 31595 | 967 | 3675 | 3589 | 9% | 20% | 0.159 | 0.250 | 0.326 | 0.410 | 0.316 | 0.322 | 98 |
2018 | 22834 | 623 | 2549 | 2582 | 9% | 19% | 0.148 | 0.250 | 0.325 | 0.398 | 0.315 | 0.315 | 100 |
2019 | 23802 | 814 | 2877 | 2886 | 9% | 21% | 0.172 | 0.251 | 0.327 | 0.423 | 0.319 | 0.320 | 100 |
2020 | 8085 | 270 | 912 | 992 | 10% | 22% | 0.165 | 0.237 | 0.316 | 0.402 | 0.311 | 0.321 | 97 |
2021 | 22101 | 734 | 2585 | 2704 | 9% | 22% | 0.167 | 0.245 | 0.322 | 0.413 | 0.317 | 0.314 | 101 |
2022 | 11536 | 294 | 1284 | 1232 | 9% | 21% | 0.141 | 0.239 | 0.312 | 0.380 | 0.305 | 0.311 | 98 |
In 2022, the group of players younger than age 33 has a .243/.312/.398 slash line with an 8% walk rate and a 22% strikeout rate. Their inexperience shines through a bit there, but there is a 4.7% difference in the slugging percentages between the two groups, and we haven't seen a difference that large since the 2011 season. Most seasons, the youngsters outslug the elders, but in both 2016 and 2021, the elders outslugged the kids. That is the type of outcome we desire because old and safe vets are grabbed for the run production since players of that age rarely contribute to the stolen base category.
The table below shows all players age 33 or older with at least 100 plate appearances this season and their current 12-team mixed league earned auction value compared to their final 2021 values, sorted in descending order of the difference between their current season value compared to their final 2021 earned value:
Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | 2021 Final | 2022 Current | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
347 | 19 | 61 | 65 | 3 | 12% | 20% | 0.340 | 0.423 | 0.617 | 27 | 47 | 20 | |
230 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 0 | 4% | 20% | 0.264 | 0.309 | 0.481 | -11 | 9 | 20 | |
271 | 10 | 28 | 36 | 2 | 6% | 27% | 0.232 | 0.284 | 0.408 | -12 | 5 | 17 | |
301 | 11 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 12% | 25% | 0.253 | 0.342 | 0.418 | 5 | 17 | 12 | |
317 | 13 | 42 | 45 | 2 | 6% | 17% | 0.269 | 0.319 | 0.466 | 9 | 19 | 10 | |
254 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 1 | 9% | 24% | 0.250 | 0.319 | 0.474 | 1 | 5 | 4 | |
222 | 5 | 19 | 31 | 2 | 6% | 22% | 0.267 | 0.311 | 0.403 | -4 | 0 | 4 | |
303 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 3 | 13% | 13% | 0.262 | 0.363 | 0.404 | 7 | 10 | 3 | |
208 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 2 | 10% | 23% | 0.212 | 0.308 | 0.307 | -12 | -11 | 1 | |
259 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 2 | 13% | 26% | 0.223 | 0.336 | 0.345 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
126 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 12% | 29% | 0.231 | 0.325 | 0.370 | -12 | -13 | -1 | |
298 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 5 | 8% | 19% | 0.249 | 0.315 | 0.372 | 7 | 6 | -1 | |
202 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 0 | 7% | 33% | 0.148 | 0.220 | 0.297 | -13 | -14 | -1 | |
338 | 10 | 46 | 37 | 0 | 12% | 15% | 0.289 | 0.379 | 0.459 | 17 | 15 | -2 | |
109 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 6% | 27% | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.410 | -12 | -14 | -2 | |
270 | 3 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 6% | 25% | 0.308 | 0.348 | 0.372 | 2 | 0 | -2 | |
263 | 6 | 36 | 30 | 1 | 9% | 19% | 0.271 | 0.361 | 0.376 | 8 | 5 | -3 | |
319 | 8 | 38 | 46 | 2 | 10% | 22% | 0.241 | 0.322 | 0.369 | 14 | 11 | -3 | |
311 | 8 | 46 | 33 | 0 | 9% | 24% | 0.312 | 0.379 | 0.493 | 19 | 15 | -4 | |
277 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 8% | 14% | 0.229 | 0.296 | 0.364 | 0 | -4 | -4 | |
151 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 12% | 27% | 0.242 | 0.331 | 0.462 | -1 | -6 | -5 | |
277 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 1 | 11% | 11% | 0.288 | 0.370 | 0.416 | 8 | 2 | -6 | |
113 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 4% | 15% | 0.255 | 0.283 | 0.396 | -9 | -15 | -6 | |
151 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 9% | 31% | 0.160 | 0.260 | 0.267 | -13 | -19 | -6 | |
305 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 10 | 5% | 17% | 0.287 | 0.341 | 0.461 | 31 | 24 | -7 | |
256 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 5 | 6% | 11% | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.377 | 7 | -1 | -8 | |
310 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 0 | 8% | 25% | 0.225 | 0.284 | 0.400 | 11 | 3 | -8 | |
309 | 7 | 36 | 44 | 1 | 9% | 18% | 0.242 | 0.311 | 0.392 | 16 | 8 | -8 | |
243 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 0 | 17% | 14% | 0.219 | 0.354 | 0.328 | -1 | -10 | -9 | |
142 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 9% | 19% | 0.189 | 0.282 | 0.320 | -3 | -14 | -11 | |
290 | 10 | 36 | 32 | 0 | 7% | 32% | 0.205 | 0.272 | 0.376 | 13 | 1 | -12 | |
259 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 1 | 11% | 26% | 0.222 | 0.313 | 0.373 | 7 | -6 | -13 | |
355 | 3 | 43 | 33 | 14 | 8% | 14% | 0.240 | 0.293 | 0.330 | 28 | 12 | -16 | |
147 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 1% | 16% | 0.222 | 0.238 | 0.326 | -1 | -17 | -16 | |
237 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 1 | 5% | 22% | 0.242 | 0.278 | 0.359 | 12 | -4 | -16 | |
106 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 6% | 19% | 0.194 | 0.245 | 0.286 | -2 | -18 | -16 | |
167 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 8% | 23% | 0.185 | 0.251 | 0.272 | 1 | -15 | -16 | |
186 | 2 | 27 | 13 | 1 | 5% | 17% | 0.242 | 0.319 | 0.358 | 7 | -10 | -17 | |
128 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 4% | 24% | 0.223 | 0.266 | 0.289 | -1 | -18 | -17 | |
156 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 5% | 23% | 0.179 | 0.231 | 0.234 | 0 | -18 | -18 | |
138 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1% | 17% | 0.213 | 0.225 | 0.294 | 1 | -18 | -19 | |
291 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 3 | 6% | 13% | 0.227 | 0.282 | 0.390 | 17 | -2 | -19 | |
170 | 5 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 14% | 28% | 0.211 | 0.335 | 0.352 | 9 | -12 | -21 | |
201 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 13% | 22% | 0.185 | 0.294 | 0.237 | 3 | -20 | -23 | |
253 | 6 | 22 | 25 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 0.210 | 0.332 | 0.374 | 15 | -8 | -23 | |
247 | 5 | 26 | 30 | 1 | 9% | 20% | 0.225 | 0.312 | 0.353 | 21 | -3 | -24 |
Twenty percent of that player pool has returned a positive value this season compared to last season while 38% of that group has lost double-digit value from last season. There is clearly some dreck on the list with backup catchers being a necessary evil in many leagues.
Still, it has been a tough year for some notable names who are getting long in the tooth. The table below shows the top and bottom eight players in terms of year-over-year fantasy value and what their Main Event ADP was back in March:
Hitter | 2021 Final | 2022 Current | Diff | ME ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
27 | 47 | 20 | 66 | |
-11 | 9 | 20 | 268 | |
-12 | 5 | 17 | 440 | |
5 | 17 | 12 | 181 | |
9 | 19 | 10 | 245 | |
1 | 5 | 4 | 384 | |
-4 | 0 | 4 | 500 | |
7 | 10 | 3 | 168 | |
-1 | -18 | -17 | 500 | |
0 | -18 | -18 | 360 | |
17 | -2 | -19 | 229 | |
1 | -18 | -19 | 339 | |
9 | -12 | -21 | 233 | |
3 | -20 | -23 | 116 | |
15 | -8 | -23 | 150 | |
21 | -3 | -24 | 235 |
Goldschmidt is having an amazing year and is in fact leading all hitters in batting average over the past calendar year. D'Arnaud has been productive before, so a healthy version of him producing is not surprising. Pham, when not defending his fantasy football honor, is motivated for his next contract and likely new employer this month and has rebounded to his previous levels of production. Blackmon continues to age gracefully in Coors while LeMahieu has turned things around a bit. Conversely, what looked like a very safe Cain on paper rapidly descended into being waived this year. Gurriel has finally shown his age at the pate while others have struggled to stay healthy this season. The ability to stay healthy and recover quickly is a skill of the youth, and the injury risks with players do not get better with age.
Note on this list, there are some names who fall in the middle of the pack. The table below shows other players taken in the top 300 who have returned negative year-over-year fantasy value sorted in ascending ADP order:
Hitter | 2021 Final | 2022 Current | Diff | ME ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
31 | 24 | -7 | 31 | |
28 | 12 | -16 | 34 | |
17 | 15 | -2 | 97 | |
19 | 15 | -4 | 97 | |
16 | 8 | -8 | 144 | |
7 | -6 | -13 | 181 | |
14 | 11 | -3 | 184 | |
11 | 3 | -8 | 219 | |
12 | -4 | -16 | 219 | |
13 | 1 | -12 | 245 | |
8 | 2 | -6 | 272 | |
7 | 6 | -1 | 298 |
Merrifield's disappointing season was not something I envisioned when boldly predicting him not finishing inside the top 60. I thought he would have issues this year, but not to this extent. Donaldson should have been a solid fit in Yankee Stadium, but he has once again struggled to fit in with a team and has not done well at the plate. Pollock, forced to change teams via a trade at the very end of camp, has struggled like many in his clubhouse while Duvall's struggles really were not surprising when we go back and look at how his 2021 success was built on a weak foundation of skills.
The larger point being, the other thing these guys really have in common is being long in the tooth. Safe skills on paper have not done any better than risky skill sets. The question must be asked: have we given too much forgiveness to safe/boring vets? Are they just as volatile of fantasy assets on a roster as unproven kids? The new environment of baseball control with production and storage appears to have presented an accelerator to the aging curve for players that we as an industry should revisit in the winter once we have more complete data.
