Collette Calls: Rethinking Steals

We know what the components are when attempting to identify base stealers. Ideally, we want someone athletic and fast who gets on base enough to utilize those skills and plays for a manager who is more like Kevin Cash than Buck Showalter. We can look at Chandler Simpson or Trea Turner and see they are lightning quick. We can look at Alejandro Kirk and Pete Alonso and see that any stolen base from those guys is likely to require several defensive missteps. The change in the stolen base rules in recent seasons has put an increased emphasis on stolen bases because they are once again more plentiful than they were throughout most of the previous decade. 

The question of late has been how much should fantasy managers and analysts weigh each of those components. Should we treat speed, managerial tendencies and opportunities equally? The data, as in many cases, can provide you with both examples and counter examples to each point.

Consider these two players and their sprint speed percentile scores in 2024 and 2025:

Player A is Victor Scott, while Player B is Juan Soto. Scott swiped as many as 94 bases in a minor league season on his way up the organizational ladder, but like many before him, has not found things so easy at the big-league level. Meanwhile, Soto's previous season high was 12, done in both 2019 and 2024, and he's now set to potentially triple that in his first year with the Mets. Soto has embraced the tutelage of Antoan Richardson, who was 6-for-6 in his very brief major-league career but also was an impressive 85.1 percent successful in his 464 professional stolen base attempts, successfully converting 395 of them while toiling various leagues over 12 seasons. To put that in perspective, Tim Raines had a career stolen base success rate of 84.7 percent as a major leaguer and is widely considered the most proficient basestealer in recent history. I will save you the time; Rickey Henderson was successful in 80.7 percent of his 2129 attempts across a 30-year baseball career from 1976 to 2006.

Richardson believes stolen bases are a 50/50 game: 50 percent physical and 50 percent mental. This recent video from the No More Fielders channel on YouTube is a fantastic breakdown of Richardson's approach and his influence on the Mets' running game:

When I shared these thoughts with some friends who are suffering Mets fans, the common reaction was, "Imagine where the Mets would be if they weren't doing this?!" We know the league is a copycat league, and what the Mets are doing this season could very well be picked up by other organizations looking to jumpstart their running games. 

2011 was the only season which there were at least 50 players who swiped 20 or more bases until the rules were altered in 2023. We have seen at least 50 in each of the previous two seasons and are very likely to see it again, with 38 players already there and another 25 players with 16 to 19 steals with just under two weeks remaining. We aren't seeing anyone step up and fill the role Elly De La Cruz had last season when he attempted steals more frequently than any player since the 1980s, but the league is still putting runners in motion slightly more frequently than it did in 2024. MLB attempted steals 7.0 percent of the time in 2024 when the next base was unoccupied; this season, that rate has slightly increased to 7.2 percent. The chart below shows each team's Stolen Base Frequency (SBF) rate as well as its success rate:

The difference between the two seasons is a more condensed grouping. Last season, Brice Turang, Shohei Ohtan, and De La Cruz each swiped 50 or more bases, but only Jose Caballero has any chance of doing so this season. Teams around the league are getting better at deterring the running game, as batteries have prevented 21 of attempts this season, up from 18 percent in 2023 and 19 percent in 2024. The data from BaseballSavant shows that 15 such preventions have come from throwing speed and 26 preventions have come from better exchanges. The work on exchanges was expected after watching the league decline in this area from 2023 to 2024. 

Being fast is still a strong contributing factor to stealing bases, but the Mets are showing that speed isn't everything. They are not alone, either, as Josh Naylor has a chance at 30 steals this season and is easily the slowest player by sprint speed of all players with at least 25 steals this year:

What Naylor lacks in speed he makes up for in managerial willingness. Torey Lovullo let Naylor run, as Naylor went 11 for 13 under his guidance, but the trade to Seattle, managed by Dan Wilson and his lead foot, really helped Naylor's pursuit of 30 steals, as he's a perfect 16-for-16 in just 44 games since joining the Mariners. 

Perhaps Richardson is right: stealing bases is 50 percent physical and 50 percent mental. However, what a player lacks in the physical can be made up on the mental side, whether it comes from better reading and understanding of pitcher tendencies and/or a manager willing to take more chances than most of his peers. If this season has taught us anything, we shoiuld be paying more attention to the mental side of stealing bases and not be so focused on the measurable physical attributes when looking for our stolen bases. After all, 20 percent of the players on the current stolen base leaderboard have sprint speeds below 50 percent.