This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have yet another extensive slate of Monday games, though we lose out on five games on the main slate due to first pitches being scheduled before 7:05 pm ET. Even so, there are seven games to work with. There are intriguing options across all price ranges of the pitcher pool and also a juicy matchup at Coors Field to consider for bats. Let's jump in.
There's no traditional starting pitcher (excluding John Brebbia from the conversation) that has a strikeout rate over 30 percent entering Monday's games, though there are several just under that mark. Luis Castillo ($9,200) is one, and he gets a matchup against the Athletics at home. That's among the best setups you can ask for, so he's the top elite pitching option to roster.
Based on results, Bailey Ober ($8,100) is a value. He's produced at least 15.9 DK points in each of his five starts and over 19.2 DK points in four of his five outings. A matchup against the Giants isn't daunting, particularly at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. There's some regression coming for Ober (1.78 ERA vs. 4.34 SIERA), but Monday isn't likely to be the day that occurs.
Brady Singer ($7,000) had a nightmare start to the season, but he's steadied things a bit by tallying 15.3 and 14.1 DK points in each of his last two starts. On Monday, he draws a matchup against a Tigers lineup that has struck out at a 23.9 percent clip – eighth-highest in the league – and has a putrid 80 wRC+ and .286 wOBA.
Singer isn't quite in punt territory, so the punt play of the day is Gavin Stone ($5,400). He draws a tough matchup against Atlanta, but we can bank on talent and prospect pedigree to take a flier on an underpriced Stone.
Chase Anderson pitching at Coors Field is low-hanging fruit, so Jorge Soler ($5,300) is a fairly straightforward pick as a top bat to target. In addition to the excellent matchup and hitting environment, Soler carries an .898 OPS and .526 slugging percentage across his last 10 games.
Jarred Kelenic ($4,600) doesn't have the same benefit of hitting environment of Soler, but he does have arguably the best matchup of Monday's slate against Kyle Muller. A lefty-on-lefty matchup isn't ideal, but Kelenic is relatively cheap as compared to other top bats and he has handled southpaws fine in a very small sample this season (.394 wOBA, .263 ISO).
We'll return to Coors Field and this time target the home team. Most of the Rockies' bats are appropriately priced up, but Harold Castro ($2,800) is the exception. He has recorded an .833 OPS and .474 slugging percentage in home games this season and Edward Cabrera's control problems are likely to get him in trouble in Colorado.
In a short slate, we can look at team's projected lineups to help us identify value. LaMonte Wade ($3,200) is likely to leadoff and has generally hit well this season, so he's too cheap at his price. A matchup against Ober isn't one to target, but there's not much downside at the cost.
Stacks to Consider
Given the relatively strong quality of pitchers and limited number of games, the top stacks are fairly easy to identify. It could pay off to get contrarian (think Detroit vs. Singer or San Fran against Ober), but the case to do so based on the stats is thin. That's not the case for the Mariners, as Muller has the second-highest SIERA and worst K-BB% of any pitcher that has a meaningful sample heading into Monday's game. There are cheap ways to stack the lineup, which is likely to make the Mariners only more popular.
For players who use point-per-dollar projections to guide their builds, Miami isn't likely to stand out because they undeniably have inflated price tags. That could keep the roster rate in check in what is otherwise another fairly obvious play. Chase Anderson has failed to record an ERA below 6.38 in any of the last three seasons, and there's no reason to expect him to excel in a Rockies uniform.