This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We've made it to the final Sunday of the regular season. Before we jump in, thanks to everyone who has loyally read the column all year. It's been a blast to write this article on a weekly basis, and hopefully it was a quick way to get familiar with the slate.
As for today, this was drafted with the information that was available very early this morning. With all games starting during the 3:00 p.m. ET hour, we are bound to get information throughout the day. Information is likely to change quickly, so make sure you keep a close eye on the lineups and news page.
Pitching
The Dodgers stayed alive for the N.L. West division title Saturday. And with all the games kicking off simultaneously, Walker Buehler ($9,800) should have plenty to pitch for. On the other hand, the Brewers don't and have used some meaningless contests as a chance to sit key players. Buehler has been inconsistent in recent starts, but he represents the lowest-salaried ace on the slate.
Like Buehler, things haven't always been smooth for Aaron Civale ($8,600) since he returned from the injured list in early September. Even so, he's produced impressive outings of 18.1 and 21.9 DK points over that span. Cleveland specifically gave Civale this start over Cal Quantrill in an effort to send him into the offseason on a positive note and with a few more innings under his belt. If he's throwing well, it's safe to expect he works deep into the game. Civale's chances of doing so are helped by a matchup against the Rangers, who come in with an 82 wRC+ and .121 ISO as a team across the last 30 days.
There's no real incentive for the Rays to push Michael Wacha ($7,800) in this start, so watch for news suggesting he could be limited. Assuming he's allowed to pitch to his normal workload, his recent form has been excellent. In seven starts since Aug. 20, Wacha has posted a 3.67 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while racking up 11.3 K/9. The biggest problem has been length, as he's pitched more than five innings only twice during that stretch. But on a slate where workload is fairly unknown across the board, relying on Wacha's skills at his value point is a reasonable bet.
Top Hitters
Humberto Mejia has a limited sample at the big-league level this season, but has allowed five home runs across four starts. This includes appearances of giving up three and two home runs apiece, so getting power bats in lineups against him is a sound strategy. Trevor Story ($4,900) is the name that immediately jumps to mind, as he's ended his Rockies' tenure by posting a .385 wOBA in the last 30 days. The Rockies are likely to be an under-the-radar stack target as Story is far from the only solid option, with others including Ryan McMahon ($4,000), C.J. Cron ($3,900) and Sam Hilliard ($2,200).
Byron Buxton ($5,100) has quietly emerged as one of the premier hitters in the league, though injuries have masked his breakout to some degree. He and the Twins will draw a matchup against Jackson Kowar. Kowar has been an easy target thanks to all the home runs (2.10 HR/9) and walks (14 BB%) he's allowed throughout the season. That provides Buxton multiple pathways to delivering value.
Value Bats
Ian Happ ($3,000) and the Cubs draw a matchup against Jake Woodford, who has allowed among the highest rate of contact among pitchers on the slate. Happ has been an elite power contributor of late by posting a .295 ISO over the last month. He's also cut back greatly on his strikeout rate (22.9 K%). The combination of matchup and skills should give Happ a nice floor-ceiling combo, particularly given the salary.
The Phillies are expected to throw some sort of modified bullpen game with Adonis Medina and Cristopher Sanchez the duo that appear to be locked in. Both are righties without notable skills, so Lewin Diaz ($2,200) could emerge as nice value as he's posted a strong .477 slugging percentage and .252 ISO across 114 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Jackson Kowar: Byron Buxton ($5,100), Jorge Polanco ($5,000), Miguel Sano ($3,800), Brent Rooker ($2,400)
Kowar has pitched on a Sunday in two of the last three weeks, so he's been a consistent target in this article. The reasons for that were highlighted when discussing Buxton above. But, in short, Kowar gives up plenty of walks and home runs without racking up strikeouts. The Twins offer some nice options, with Buxton and Polanco the two elite and high-value plays. However, there's also plenty of potential for salary relief with Sano (.278 ISO, .258 wOBA across last 30 days) and Rooker (.245 ISO, .327 wOBA across last 30 days).
Instead of selecting a second team to stack without seeing which teams are playing meaningful lineups, it's worth noting some of the other teams I'll be watching carefully as we get more information:
· Boston has everything to play for, but nearly the entire lineup is overvalued and are difficult to jam into lineups even in a matchup against Joan Adon – who's only recorded 18 total innings between Double and Triple-A in his career and is set to make his big-league debut today.
· Colorado is another interesting stack based on Humberto Mejia's potential to cough up homers, and the value is right for several of the players mentioned above. Story could be the core play with McMahon, Hilliard and Cron as peripheral pieces depending on roster construction and budgetary considerations.
· If St. Louis plays its everyday lineup, Alec Mills is another contact-heavy pitcher who would be a decent target.
· The same is true of Houston going up against Cole Irvin.
· The Blue Jays also have everything to play for and match up against Bruce Zimmermann. He's allowed at least one homer in eight of his last 10 starts, and the Blue Jays boast some hitters who fare favorably against lefties in Teoscar Hernandez ($4,900), Bo Bichette ($5,700), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,200), George Springer ($5,100) and Marcus Semien ($5,700). As with Boston, the primary concern here is salary as the core plays are all extremely inflated.
