This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Mike Leake, STL vs. CIN ($4,500): Leake has given up 20 earned runs over his last three starts, hence the incredibly low price. However, he still went at least five innings in each of those starts, and finished with a solid 3.63 xFIP over that span. With a 58.3 percent ground-ball rate, 25 percent HR/FB percentage, just 36.3 percent LOB rate and .400 BABIP during the three-game span, it's safe to say there was some unfortunate luck. In the two starts prior to Leake's large downturn, he had a remarkable 1.38 ERA (0.67 xFIP) and 42 percent K rate. The Reds traded away one of their biggest offensive weapons in Jay Bruce, and as a whole the lineup doesn't elicit a lot of fear for opposing pitchers. Away from home, the Reds have a measly 79 wRC+.
Kenta Maeda, LAD vs. PHI ($9,700): The Dodgers are heavily favored (-191) over the Phillies, and the over/under sits at just seven runs. Over his last three starts, Maeda has a 3.06 ERA (3.50 xFIP), while the Phillies' offense has remained stagnant throughout the season, coming in with a 79 wRC+.
Willson Contreras, CHC vs. LAA ($3,900): Despite cooling off a bit from the start of his MLB career, Contreras still has a solid 111 wRC+. Jered Weaver has allowed a 5.11 ERA and 5.72 xFIP this season working as an extreme fly ball pitcher, and the wind forecast will be worth looking at closer to game time, as Wrigley Field could yield many Cub home runs.
Chris Davis, BAL at OAK ($3,900): Opposing pitcher Zach Neal has faced 49 lefty-handed batters this season and they've hit four home runs and pushed his xFIP up to 5.43. Davis has been extremely poor since the beginning of July, but his season-long wRC+ remains at 105 and his career wRC+ against righties is 129.
Jose Altuve, HOU at MIN ($4,900): Altuve continues to crush southpaws with a 189 wRC+ against them this year, while opposing starter Hector Santiago brings a 5.13 xFIP into his second start for the Twins. His 4.37 ERA after 22 starts for the Angels is likely to normalize towards the xFIP value, as Target Field in Minnesota is much more offense-friendly.
Josh Donaldson, TOR vs. TB ($4,400): Donaldson brings in a 171 wRC+ split against lefties this season after recording a 175 split last year. Opposing starter Drew Smyly has a 5.14 ERA, largely due to allowing 1.66 HR/9 as an extreme fly ball pitcher.
Marcus Semien, OAK vs. BAL ($3,600): Semien comes in with a pretty crazy .320 ISO against lefties this season, while his wRC+ is 147. Wade Miley has a 4.46 xFIP and allowed 1.61 HR/9 against right-handed bats this season.
George Springer, HOU at MIN ($4,200): Not quite as dominant as Altuve, Springer has a 149 wRC+ and .270 ISO against southpaws this season.
Stephen Piscotty, STL vs. CIN ($4,300): After naming four righty vs. lefty matchups, here comes a fifth and possibly strongest. Piscotty has the strongest wRC+ (191) and backs it up with a .305 ISO against southpaws. Opposing is Brandon Finnegan, who has a 4.45 ERA (5.07 xFIP) and 1.61 HR/9 this year.
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA vs. SF ($4,700): Making it six righties against lefties, Stanton had a ridiculous .525 ISO against lefties last year. His May-June slump suppresses many of his season-long numbers, but his split against lefties still sits a 147 – 40 points higher than that against righties. Stanton's July wRC+ was 160 with a .316 ISO. Meanwhile, southpaw Matt Moore has permitted a 4.79 xFIP and 1.47 HR/9 against righty bats this year.