This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There are a few aces on the mound Tuesday, but no one is close to Justin Verlander after his 15-strikeout outing. Outside of him and a couple others, it's not a pretty slate for pitching, at least in terms of consistency. I'd also keep an eye on the weather with clouds likely looming at a few locations.
PITCHING
There's a lack of mid-range options Tuesday night so it's likely each roster will have at least one of the higher-priced arms. Justin Verlander ($11,900) is the smallest favorite of the bunch, but that doesn't matter if he racks up 15 strikeouts again. He's allowing runs, yet his strikeout potential is hard to pass up against the Reds and their 23.5 K% over the last month against righties. If you want a better matchup, Clayton Kershaw ($11,200) faces the Giants, who own a 23.0 K% and .299 wOBA against southpaws in the last month. I'd rather not spend on him even though he's almost guaranteed to have a quality outing. He also hasn't surpassed 25 fantasy points in his last four starts. Cole Hamels ($10,500) has done that in each of his last two and will likely be the most popular play, allowing 11 hits and zero runs in his last three starts (22 innings). The White Sox are better against lefties, but given that he carved up the Rockies in Coors Field last start, that doesn't matter.
Jack Flaherty ($8,700) and Brett Anderson ($6,200) are also large favorites mostly because of competition. Flaherty has a bit more potential because of a 26.3 K% (Anderson is at 12.6), though he's allowed four runs in each of his last two starts. Both the Marlins and Orioles have hit better in these situations, but Flaherty's upside is worth considering. The same goes for Jordan Yamamoto ($8,300) after he hit 26.8 points against the Cardinals in his first outing.
Jacob deGrom ($10,300) has lost his last four starts and while he's been fairly consistent, I'd rather not go against the Braves, who have great numbers against righties in the last month with a .359 wOBA and 20.8 K%. Patrick Corbin ($8,200) is in the same mold with a similar matchup (Nationals) and nice upside, though some rough recent outings.
If you don't think the Mets can win, Julio Teheran ($9,500) doesn't have much upside, but this is another start in which he could go six innings and strikeout five, good for around 20 points. The biggest gamble would be to go with Yusei Kikuchi ($5,300), who has fallen off since a decent start, allowing 35 hits and 17 runs in his last four outings. The plus is that the Royals have been terrible against lefty arms since the middle of May with a 29.3 K% and .276 wOBA.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
Roughly one-third of the games have an over/under around 10 runs so there may not be complete chalk options. There are a lot of sketchy pitchers to go after with 11 of them priced less than $7,000. Colorado-Arizona is a good place to start given all the runs in Rockies games of late. Merrill Kelly has solid numbers against both sides of the plate so I wouldn't go crazy on the Rockies, but Antonio Senzatela has allowed a .444 OBP and .433 wOBA to lefty bats this season. All of the Diamondbacks are on the table, but if you want to spend, Ketel Marte ($5,500) does it all with a .362 OBP and .304 ISO against righty arms since the beginning of May. It's not easy to find value, though Ildemaro Vargas ($4,000) is at least a reasonable price.
It's the same deal with Ivan Nova, who has similar numbers against lefties, but also has allowed a .358 wOBA to righty bats. You can save a few bucks on Kyle Schwarber ($4,400) even though he leads the team with a .337 ISO in his last 111 plate appearances against righties. Albert Almora Jr. ($3,500) and Carlos Gonzalez ($3,100) are intriguing options because of price. Almora's on a bit of a cold streak while Gonzalez has a .367 OBP in his last 30 PA against righty hurlers.
Cleveland-Texas could be a home run fest if we're lucky. Zach Plesac and Adrian Sampson gave up a combined seven in their previous starts. I'd rather stack against Sampson, who has allowed 2.20 HR/9 and a .371 wOBA to righty hitters. Plesac has shown positives in his few outings and I don't think it's best to go all in against him. I'd focus on lefties, but Logan Forsythe ($4,000) has a nice .420 OBP in his last 50 PA against righty arms.
The Pirates should be considered against Daniel Norris, who isn't good against either side of the plate, allowing multiple runs and at least six hits every start. I'm fine with looking at cheaper bats in this situation because you know Norris will give up hits no matter what. Melky Cabrera ($4,100) and Elias Diaz ($3,400) are a tad cheaper and lead Pittsburgh in terms of OBP against southpaws in the last month and a half at .364 and .379, respectively. On the other end, you could also roll with the Tigers in GPP against Mitch Keller, who has allowed 17 hits and 12 runs in his first two starts. It's rarely a good idea to back the Tigers, but this is an exception. JaCoby Jones ($3,800) has held decent pop (.303 ISO) with a .386 OBP in his last 83 PA against righties, which is slightly better than Miguel Cabrera ($3,600). In the case that Keller gets ripped again, Dawel Lugo ($2,900), John Hicks ($2,700) and Harold Castro ($2,700) are almost free.
STACKS
Athletics vs. Gabriel Ynoa (Orioles)
(1B/OF Mark Canha - $4,300), (OF Robbie Grossman - $4,100), (OF Ramon Laureano - $4,100)
This will be one of the more popular stacks since Ynoa has allowed five homers in his last three starts and has allowed an ugly .402 OBP to 82 righties faced. The A's have a .216 ISO in the last month against righties and they don't have a lefty-heavy roster so that helps against Ynoa. The back end of Oakland's lineup has just as much power and that saves a few bucks. Canha has a .327 ISO and .391 OBP in his last 64 PA against righty arms and Laureano is second on the team in the last month with a .253 ISO.
Indians vs. Adrian Sampson (Rangers)
(OF Oscar Mercado - $4,800), (1B Carlos Santana - $5,000), (C Roberto Perez - $4,200)
If you use this stack you have to go with pure power because of Sampson's struggles against righty bats (2.20 HR/9). That said, you can't avoid Santana, a switch hitter, and his .487 OBP and .565 ISO in his last 80 PA against righties. Perez has the next best numbers, though I'm fine with backing Kevin Plawecki ($3,200) if he gets the start behind plate.
Royals vs. Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners)
(1B/3B Cheslor Cuthbert - $3,600), (OF Jorge Bonifacio - $3,400), (2B Nicky Lopez - $3,100)
A lot of people will avoid this matchup because of KC's recent numbers, but I'd rather back struggling bats than a struggling arm. Kikuchi has allowed a wOBA above .330 to both sides of the plate, but a much worse .347 OBP to righties. Not many will use this stack in the second half of the order, though if Kikuchi struggles again, he'll struggle against everyone. Bonifacio is a shot in the dark since he was just called up, but Cuthbert and Lopez have been decent for the Royals. Lopez is the rare lefty who has better numbers against lefties with a .367 OBP in 30 PA.
