This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
We were able to rebound in a big way, cleaning up on suggested Championship Series bets after having a rough showing in the Division Series. I also suggested getting in on the Astros at +235 to win the World Series prior to the ALCS. That line is now -155.
Houston (-155) vs. Atlanta (+130)
Houston's offense still looms as the strongest unit on either team, and while Houston's pitching seemed to be running on fumes early in the ALCS, Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia finished really strong, so they might have enough in the tank to get it done. I favor Houston very heavily in games where Valdez starts, as Atlanta struggles against lefties relative to a normal World Series team. I also favor Houston heavily against Max Fried, as the Astros offense is the best in the game against lefties. Since Valdez and Fried don't line up to pitch in the same games, that presents a really nice opportunity to profit.
Here's how the pitching projects to shake out (home pitcher first):
Game 1: Framber Valdez vs. Charlie Morton
Game 2: Luis Garcia vs. Max Fried
Game 3: Ian Anderson vs. Jose Urquidy
Game 4: Bullpen vs. Bullpen
Game 5: Charlie Morton vs. Framber Valdez
Game 6: Luis Garcia vs. Max Fried
Game 7: Jose Urquidy vs. Ian Anderson
I suggest betting Houston -155 to win the World Series. I also suggest betting Houston in Game 1 (-135) and Game 2 (line currently unavailable). I also suggest betting Houston to win the World Series in five games (+500) and/or six games (+390). Essentially, you should bet Houston in any instance except Game 3, in which Ian Anderson lines up to face Jose Urquidy -- I think that's a decided pitching advantage for Atlanta, but Houston's offense is still too formidable to suggest betting on Atlanta to win Game 3.
