This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
11 games await Saturday evening's main slate, which is stacked with top tier pitching. Five arms are priced at $9,800 or greater. Weather looks favorable, so it appears to be lock and load across the field.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs. KAN ($10,300): I'm hoping to target less obvious names in this column, and Burnes qualifies underneath Trevor Bauer and above Ian Anderson, both of whom I find overpriced. Burnes is in an insane groove, striking out 39 in his last four starts, allowing one run over 23.2 innings. Kansas City fans 24.3 percent of the time and posts an 89 wRC+ against righties.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD at COL ($9,100): A Coors' Field arm surely makes for a GPP pivot with low usage. Kershaw has been hit hard by Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon (37-of-121, eight HR), and the Rockies rank 11th with a .330 wOBA against lefties. But they also have just a .163 ISO and 90 wRC+ in this spot. Kershaw has a 4.50 career ERA at Coors, and has gone for 40-plus FanDuel points (FDP) in five of six.
Andrew Heaney, LAA vs. TEX ($8,500): Another less-obvious name capable of producing, Heaney has gone for at least 46 FDP in three of his last four. The lone blemish was an outing against these Rangers, who have gotten Heaney for eight runs over 8.2 innings in two appearances against. Texas has a mere .279 wOBA, 64 wRC+, .133 ISO and 25.7 percent K rate against lefties, so do you trust form and stats, or previous results more here?
Cristian Javier, HOU vs. ARI ($7,500): There doesn't appear to be an obvious pay down for me, so maybe targeting Javier provides some relief. He's managed 17 FDP or better in seven of eight, including a 31 FDP outing against these Diamondbacks previously. He's not a strikeout guy, which is fine given that Arizona fans just 21.5 percent of the time. They also have a weak 69 wRC+ and .115 ISO. Javier should limit damage and work deep enough to flirt with 3x return.
Top Targets
Corey Seager, LAD at COL ($4,300): It's an inflated tag, but the matchup presents favorably. He's posted a .418 wOBA and .323 ISO against lefties, gets a ballpark boost at Coors' and faces a starter allowing a .542 wOBA to lefties. Seager is clearly priced up for all of these factors, but he's also not someone who will leap off the page name-wise amongst his surroundings.
Marcell Ozuna, ATL at NYM ($3,900): I targeted Ozuna in yesterday's column, and he went deep. And the Mets bumped their targeted pitcher David Peterson to Saturday, so the same appeal remains. As noted previously, Ozuna rakes against lefties; .533 wOBA, 238 wRC+, .541 ISO and 51.7 percent hard hit rate.
Value Bats
Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. NYY ($3,700): The price point is awkward; is he a top target or a value? All I know is he has a .440 wOBA, .280 ISO and 47.5 percent hard hit rate, making him targetable even if he's only seven of 42 against J.A. Happ.
Ozzie Albies, ATL at NYM ($3,500): Albies RvL splits are well documented, but he went deep twice from the left side last night and is obviously squaring up the ball. Hitting out of the nine-hole limits his chances a little, but it's a cheap buy into a lineup that can go off, and stay hot, at any moment.
Avisail Garcia, MIL vs. KAN ($2,700): There's no power upside in Garcia, but he carries a .466 wOBA against opposite-handed bats into Saturday. That's it, that's the stat. Low risk, low reward, 3x value has happened seven of the last 11 times Garia has played.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Luke Weaver: Kyle Tucker ($3,300), Michael Brantley ($3,100), George Springer ($3,700)
Tucker and Brantley flirt with must-play status for me in a clear plus matchup. Weaver is allowing a .425 wOBA, 1.014 OPS and 3.15 HR/9 to lefties to date, while Tucker goes for a .361 wOBA an .291 ISO, and Brantley a .399 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .206 ISO. They're so affordable and in such a plus spot, the third piece doesn't matter much, but getting Spring atop the order for a sub 4k feels great.
Orioles vs. Charlie Morton: Ryan Mountcastle ($3,700), DJ Stewart ($2,900), Jose Iglesias ($2,800)
It's a minuscule buy in, and there's plenty of GPP upside. Morton has a 5.14 xFIP but only a 4.38 ERA, so there's likely room for regression. Mountcastle has a .435 wOBA and 177 wRC+, while Stewart owns a .400 ISO. Iglesias, meanwhile, has a .395 wOBA in this spot, and collected eight hits during his last three-game series.
