This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
10 games await players during Saturday's main slate, going off at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitching
Luis Castillo, CIN vs. MIN ($10,400): While the price is probably too rich for my blood, it's hard to ignore Castillo's current form that has him averaging 53.3 FanDuel points (FDP) over his last four. Minnesota ranks eighth with a .333 wOBA against righties, but do fan 25.2 percent of the time. That K rate, paired with Castillo's 11.59 per nine suggests a nice floor worth paying for.
Aaron Civale, CLE vs. PIT ($9,600): Given the juicy matchup, this looks like a too obvious pay down. Civale hasn't been elite, posting just a 37 FDP ceiling over his last six starts, but that should be his floor in a matchup against a Pirates side that ranks dead last against righties with a .261 wOBA, 61 wRC+, .125 ISO and 25.1 K rate.
Michael Pineda, MIN at CIN ($7,800): The target is the Reds' 25.5 percent K rate here. Pineda came out of suspension on fire but has only managed 9.2 innings over his last two starts, limiting upside. He's been feast or famine in the strikeout department, and given the Twins have much less to play for than the Reds, it's easy to see him having a short leash. But it's also easy to picture a GPP masterpiece dueling with Castillo.
Tanner Houck, BOS at ATL ($7,500): Houck figures to be a popular pay down, and, for that reason, I'm personally passing. He's been dynamic and clearly has a future, fanning 11 across 11 shutout innings thus far. The Braves are just too potent a lineup for me to feel comfortable, dropping their K rate to 23.4 percent against righties while posting a league-best .366 wOBA.
Matthew Boyd, DET at KAN ($7,600): Boyd is my preferred pay down to the two previous names. He's been incredibly up and down, posting 38 FDP or more in three of his last five and 28 or more in five of seven. The problem is he's gone for a combined three FDP in the two games he hasn't found success. Bottom line for GPPs is I'll take my chances at a 3-4x return against a lineup that posts a .316 wOBA and .160 ISO against lefties.
Top Targets
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. BOS ($4,300): Freeman gets the nod here simply because he's at a marginal discount to Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna, the latter of which is driving in runs on a nightly basis. We touched on the matchup above, and Houck is certainly legit. But Freeman is a likely MVP winner who has a whopping .501 wOBA, .368 ISO and 217 wRC+ against righties.
Bryce Harper, PHI vs. TAM ($4,300): Harper is doing his best to get the Phillies into the postseason, going 4-for-5 with two homers, a triple, four RBI, five runs and four walks in his last two games. Yes, that's huge and a small heater at the same time. But Harper has faired well against lefties all year, to the tune of a .418 wOBA.
Value Bats
Eric Hosmer, SDP at SFG ($3,400): Hosmer hasn't been elite of late but has only three goose eggs since August 22. He's managed eight double-digit-plus FDP outings in that span and two more outings with 9.5 FDP. Mix in a .411 wOBA and .281 ISO, and there's a clear path to 4x value against Johnny Cueto, who's allowing a .369 wOBA to opposite-handed bats.
Kyle Tucker, HOU at TEX ($3,400): I'm trying to differentiate in this column, but I could rewrite what was posted yesterday with regards to the Astros. They are stackable with Tucker, Michael Brantley ($3,100) and George Springer ($4,100) all finding success against righties, but my hunch is they'll be popular, and I only want a small side for GPPs. As such, I like Tucker, who has a 44.6 percent hard hit rate, to go with a .271 ISO, a .378 wOBA and a greater stolen base potential.
Stacks to Consider
Rockies vs. Madison Bumgarner: Trevor Story ($4,100), Kevin Pillar ($3,000), Charlie Blackmon ($3,600)
We're really dialing in on Bumgarner against righties, whom he's allowing a .428 wOBA against, a number that rises to .471 at home. That makes Story a virtual must play on this slate, given his .455 wOBA against lefties. The rest of the Rockies lineup isn't distinguished, but Pillar has swung well since coming over from the Red Sox, posting a .452 wOBA and 172 wRC+. Blackmon is hard to ignore as a third piece here despite the LvL matchup, carrying a .417 wOBA into this matchup.
Rangers vs. Lance McCullers: Joey Gallo ($3,100), Leody Taveras ($2,700), Ronald Guzman ($2,600)
McCullers' home/road splits are ridiculously skewed, so we'll target his .431 wOBA and 1.136 OPS allowed freely despite a poor Rangers lineup. It's obviously just for GPPers, and Gallo is appealing mostly in name recognition given his current .301 wOBA and .186 ISO. Taveras and Guzman really just help complete a lefty stack against McCullers' struggles, though perhaps Guzman's .348 wOBA against righties gives this a hint of stability.
