This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full four-game divisional series gets going at 2:08 p.m. EDT, and there's no shortage of intriguing matchups. Pitching is top heavy and there aren't obvious pay-down options, especially with the Padres not announcing their intentions and likely going by committee. That's left Dodger bats omitted from this column, but they absolutely shouldn't be from your lineup. I may not target their top bats, but secondary options to get a small piece of their offense seems correct.
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. OAK ($10,000): Valdez seems a bit puzzling as the slate's top-priced arm, but he delivered 36 or more FDP in nine of his 12 regular-season starts, including a 49 FDP outing against Oakland in which he fanned nine across seven innings. Oakland whiffed 24.2 percent of the time against lefties and ranked 24th with a .301 wOBA against, so Valdez seems to carry some stability.
Tyler Glasnow, TAM vs. NYY ($9,600): Arguably the best talent on the slate, Glasnow may be priced down given the name-brand opponent. He faced the Yankees three times during the regular season, and while they got him once for four runs across 2.2 innings he was dominant in the other two outings, fanning 17 in 11.2 frames, allowing four hits and two runs. Since that second outing August 19, Glasnow has had a 34 FDP floor and is averaging 46.7 FDP over his last three.
Max Fried, ATL vs. MIA ($8,700): Fried was superb in the wild-card round, earning 40 FDP over seven shutout frames. He gets a pass for his -3 FDP outing against the Marlins in his final regular-season contest, as an ankle injury limited him to one frame in which he gave up the only two homers he's surrendered all year. He earned 44 FDP in an earlier meeting with Miami, striking out a season-high seven, and that's what I'm expecting here. The Marlins were decent against lefties, ranking ninth with a .331 wOBA, but they fanned 23.9 percent of the time. 3.5x value would be a mild disappointment from Fried.
Sean Manaea, OAK vs. HOU ($6,800): With San Diego not making their intentions known, and likely going with bullpen options, Manaea is the only choice if you're simply not willing to pay for pitching. He's not a bad bet, with a 24 FDP floor over his last seven starts. In four of those he allowed just one earned run and he posted a 40 FDP ceiling, which came against Houston. The Astros fan a mere 19.7 percent of the time, limiting Manaea's upside, and the ball certainly jumped for both sides Monday, but his current form suggests a potentially solid return here.
Top Targets
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. MIA ($4,200): Freeman just keeps being ignored amongst the top options, and it makes him a bit of a value. The likely NL MVP, he's bringing an obscene .499 wOBA, 216 wRC+ and .360 ISO into a matchup against a team he went 14-of-40 against during the regular season with eight extra-base hits and 11 RBI.
Fernando Tatis, SDP vs. LAD ($4,300): Tatis is likely as safe an option as there is. He's posted 9.7 FDP or better in nine of 10, with a 50.9 FDP ceiling. He's taken Walker Buehler deep once in seven tries, and boasts a .414 wOBA and .321 ISO against same-handed arms.
Value Bats
Randy Arozarena, TAM vs. NYY ($3,200): The price point keeps rising, and he's going to be as chalky as they come, but it's really hard to pass on the potential here. Arozarena is hitting in a run-producing lineup spot, entered Monday with at least 9.2 FDP in six straight game and is 2-of-2 with two runs and an RBI in Monday's contest as I write this. Yankees starter Deivi Garcia allowed a .344 wOBA to righties during the regular season.
Eric Hosmer, SDP vs. LAD ($3,200): Hosmer is just too cheap to ignore given his regular season success against righties (.409 wOBA and .266 ISO). He drove in three runs during the wild card round, but is just 1-of-13 against Buehler during his career in limited chances.
Garrett Cooper, MIA vs. ATL ($2,800): Cooper has crushed lefties all year, currently boasting a .479 wOBA, 208 wRC+ and .425 ISO. That plays great at this salary. Teammate Jesus Aguilar also has favorable splits against lefties, but stacking the two makes things challenging given position eligibility. Another reason to think twice about a stack is that Fried also has weird road splits, which this technically is, allowing a .377 wOBA to lefties and a .225 to righties.
Khris Davis, OAK vs. HOU ($2,500): Don't look now, but Davis has homered in two of his last three. You may think that's the buy-in to him being a GPP target only for his power, but he posted a .362 wOBA against lefties during the regular season, second amongst all A's regulars.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Manaea: George Springer ($4,000), Alex Bregman ($3,600), Yuli Gurriel ($2,500)
The Astros clearly enjoyed playing in Dodger Stadium on Monday, and remain largely priced down given their regular-season struggles. Springer can anchor and is 11-of-34 in his career against Manaea. Bregman is a known lefty masher and posted a .408 wOBA against them during the regular season, adding a 1.066 OPS against Manaea, with three of his six hits off him leaving the yard. Gurriel was third amongst Astro regulars with a .366 wOBA against southpaws. More encouraging is that Gurriel and Bregman have a 7.6 percent or less K rate in this spot. More balls in play are always a good thing.
Atlanta vs. Sandy Alcantara: Marcell Ozuna ($4,100), Ozzie Albies ($3,800), Travis d'Arnaud ($3,000)
This lineup rakes, with four regulars owning a .423 wOBA against righties. Differentiating can be paramount to tournament success, so if you go away from Freeman or Ronald Acuna, this stack can work thanks to d'Arnaud's success and low salary, as he carries a .433 wOBA and .267 ISO. Ozuna goes .423/.246, and Albies .363/.244, major improvements for the latter given his past heavy splits favoring him from the right side. They should hit 3-4 and either 5 or 6 in the lineup, giving them ample chances to feed off each other.
