This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Eight games await FanDuel's Tuesday main slate, with games going off between 7:05 and 10:10 p.m. EDT. Coors Field is on the slate, so for cash lineups, we're immediately fading Jon Gray and Lance McCullers. Corbin Burnes is your highest-priced arm at $10,500, but he's a fade for me too despite his incredible form, as I'm just not willing to pay this number against a sound Padres lineup. Finally, Shohei Ohtani is on the mound in a juicy spot against Texas. It robs us of a top bat option, and with Ohtani allegedly limited to 75 pitches or so, he's a pass as well.
So, let's see who we feel more confident in Tuesday night.
Pitching
Hyun Jin Ryu, TOR at BOS ($9,700): Ryu somehow avoided Boston in 2020, so this will be the first look at the lefty for the Red Sox. Boston is only fanning 18.8 percent of the time against southpaws and are white hot offensively, but Ryu just doesn't give up runs, allowing two or fewer in three starts after giving up just 20 runs in 67.0 innings last year (2.69 ERA, which is actually his highest in four years). It may feel a bit scary to trust the floor here against a hot offense, but Ryu seems to have earned that trust.
Taijuan Walker, NYM vs CHC ($7,700): We saw the Cubs' ability to break out Saturday against Atlanta, but it was in a wind-aided setting. They won't get that luxury in spacious Citi Field. Chicago fans 26.2 percent of the time against righties while posting a .181 ISO and 94 wRC+. Walker has gone for 28 and 34 FDP in his two starts, fanning 12 across 10.1 frames. With a little efficiency, he can get to 4x value here.
Chris Paddack, SD vs. MIL ($6,900): The floor here is certainly low, as Paddack has gone for 15 or fewer FDP in two of three outings, and his ceiling has been a mere 30 FDP. But he posted that number against a weak-hitting Pirates side, and the Brewers may be worse. The lineup they trotted out Monday was bad without Cristian Yelich. They bring a .285 wOBA, .133 ISO and 25.5 percent strikeout rate to the table, and if we can get 30+ FDP here, it will open up options elsewhere.
Top Targets
Nolan Arenado, STL at WAS ($4,000): A Cardinals stack makes a ton of sense, as Patrick Corbin looks like he's gone and not coming back, having allowed 15 runs, 12 hits, four homers and seven walks in just 6.1 innings. St. Louis also happens to lead the league with a .399 wOBA against lefties, but taking Arenado as an anchor and going contrarian elsewhere can win some GPPs. He's a known lefty masher, already owning a .494 wOBA against them to date, and is hitting .277 against Corbin in 47 career at-bats with three homers.
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR at BOS ($3,900): Guerrero looks firmly in the midst of a breakout season. Even if we go back to the start of 2020, he's posted a very stable .412 wOBA, 163 wRC+, and .365 ISO, giving us more confidence in a larger sample. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez isn't someone we'd regularly target, but he's been far more getable by righties (.364 wOBA) than lefties (.081 wOBA). Guerrero's 15.8 percent strikeout rate gives great confidence in a stable floor.
Whit Merrifield, KC vs. TB ($3,900): Merrifield was held in check by a lefty Monday, and I don't think that can happen two days in a row, especially given Rich Hill's numbers so far. Merrifield's posted a .502 wOBA, .233 wRC+ and .368 ISO in this spot to date, and he's already stolen five bases, giving him stability and upside.
Value Bats
Joey Wendle, TB at KC ($3,500): Wendle remains on fire with another successful Monday, and he carries a team-high .466 wOBA, 214 wRC+, .325 ISO and 1.090 OPS against righties into tonight's contest. Royals' starter Brad Keller has been victimized equally by hitters from both sides of the plate and is allowing a .467 wOBA and 1.089 OPS to lefties.
Kyle Schwarber, WAS vs. STL ($3,300): Stacking Nats is tempting, as Cards' starter Adam Wainwright has been just a guy and looked particularly uncomfortable in his first road start. But I don't trust Josh Bell at $3,000 and we likely can't afford both Juan Soto ($4,200) and Trea Turner ($4,100). Enter Schwarber, who has an .894 OPS against Wainwright in 20 at bats, walking seven times to boot. Wainwright is allowing a .414 wOBA to lefties thus far as well. There are some solid BvP options here if that's your thing, as Starlin Castro ($2,700) and Josh Harrison ($2,800) also have familiarity from their days in the NL Central, but given their spots further down in the lineup, stacking with them isn't preferred.
Randal Grichuk, TOR at BOS ($2,800): A lack of a third solid option prevents me from stacking Jays' bats in GPPs, but it's impossible to ignore Grichuk's success against southpaws. He's boasted a .439 wOBA and 182 wRC+ against them since the start of last year, and similar to Guerrero above, he rarely strikes out, fanning just 16.9 percent of the time. His power isn't as great, but he looks to have stand-alone appeal if mini-stacking isn't your thing.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Jon Gray: Kyle Tucker ($4,100), Yordan Alvarez ($3,500), Yuli Gurriel ($3,500)
With Alvarez and Alex Bregman ($3,500) both expected back from the Covid-19 injured list, you have to assume they'll both feature prominently, and they're priced down despite the favorable Coors Field matchup. If we trust stats over name recognition though, we can fade Bregman against a same-handed arm. Tucker has a .412 wOBA and .407 ISO against righties, Alvarez is showing solid power with a .267 ISO, and Gurriel is off to a great start with a .391 wOBA, albeit with minimal power. The lack of expense in this lineup is going to make it trendy, but this stack should still offer differentiation.
Mets vs. Jake Arrieta: Brandon Nimmo ($3,100), Dominic Smith ($2,900), Jeff McNeil ($2,700)
Arrieta is allowing a .370 wOBA and 5.60 FIP against lefties since the start of last year, and .334/3.86 to righties. The Mets have a plethora of opposite-handed bats to choose from, but we can build around Nimmo in the leadoff spot, as he's posted a .423 wOBA and 171 wRC+ since the start of last season. Smith brings a reasonable 37.4 percent hard hit rate in that span to pair with a .401 wOBA and .308 ISO. McNeil is the wildcard. He's in a bad funk to start the year, and likely hits sixth, not making him an option for a traditional stack. A .360 wOBA isn't awful at that salary though, and he's an eye-opening 15-of-26 with a 1.308 OPS against Arrieta for his career.
