This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The Dodgers will look to close out the Rays on Tuesday. While I don't know if we'll have one more day to the season, I do know the schedule says this is my last column for the year. I was wrong way more than right, but hopefully helped some along the way. Sincerely appreciate everyone reading, and I'll be back at it come March.
Pitching Breakdown
Blake Snell, at least in name, gives the Rays a perceived leg up on the mound Tuesday. But he's been terribly inefficient, going more than five innings just five times in 16 starts, and managed only 4.2 frames in Game 2, allowing two hits and two runs, though he did fan nine. Snell allowed 10 homers during the regular season and five this postseason, with 12 of those coming against righties. He's walked four in consecutive starts, and while the showdown slate means we're not chasing innings on the bump, Snell's inability to work deep into games doesn't allow for many batters to see him three times, so trusting Dodgers splits against lefties might not be fruitful.
Snell will be opposed by Tony Gonsolin, who has been hit hard in the postseason, allowing eight runs across three starts, walking seven in 7.2 innings. He's surrendered a long ball in each outing after allowing a mere 0.39 per nine during the regular season. It's possible the moments have been too big for the rookie. With Monday's off day, the Dodgers should have their bullpen at full strength and likely won't be patience with Gonsolin should he run into trouble.
Hitting Correlation
If we're going to chase power against Snell, we have some cheaper right-handed options in the Dodgers lineup. Mookie Betts ($9,000) hasn't been great in the postseason, and had only a .248 wOBA, 56 wRC+ and .018 ISO against southpaws during the regular season. Fading him lands me on Justin Turner ($8,000) as an MVP candidate. His zero in Game 5 snapped a nine-game streak of at least nine FDP, and he'd homered in Games 3 and 4. Will Smith ($6,500) has been in the mix of a lot of the Dodgers runs, and ranked second on the team during the regular season with a .370 wOBA versus lefties, and fanned only 15.0 percent of the time, giving him chances with balls in play. Chris Taylor ($6,000) got Snell for a two-run shot in Game 2, and has quietly averaged 8.8 FDP during the series. Obviously, I wouldn't completely overlook left-handed bats. Corey Seager ($9,500) continues to be the best player in the series and looks worth the price despite the LvL matchup, and Max Muncy ($7,000) continues to have safe floor thanks to all the walks he takes.
It's unfortunate, but building around the Rays bats really comes with just two options. Randy Arozarena ($8,500) looked like the shine had worn off early in this series, but he's homered twice in the last three games, scoring four times and driving in three. That seems to work well with Gonsolin's postseason proclivity to surrender homers. The other option is Brandon Lowe ($7,500), who remains as feast or famine as they come. He has three hits all series, and they've all cleared the fence. It's not good form, which makes his 129 wRC+ from the regular season harder to bank on. If looking to differentiate, Manuel Margot ($7,000) has hit five homers in the postseason after just one during the regular season, and has six hits this series. And Austin Meadows ($6,500), though overpriced and in terrible form, is a top talent that could be an upside GPP dart throw.
One-offs
A.J. Pollock ($5,000) figures to be an easy pay down option given the LvR matchup, as he posted a .468 wOBA and .473 ISO in this spot during the regular year. But he's seen only two at bats in each of his World Series starts, and if we assume Snell is removed earlier than later, Pollock figures to follow suit. Austin Barnes ($4,000) may be the better cheap choice if he's in the lineup.
Stacking Dodgers and pairing them with Yandy Diaz ($5,000) will be a popular strategy. Diaz led the Rays with a .372 wOBA and 141 wRC+ during the regular season, and has four hits this series. Kevin Kiermaier ($6,000) has four hits over the last two games and six hits overall in the series, include two home runs, making for a nice pivot.
