Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 226-250

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This 10th article will cover my updated 226-250 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. The tier from the seventh edition that began with Alexfri Planez at No. 162 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 162-245.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Rafael Morel/Juan Garcia/Jose Pena

Morel, who is the younger, more explosive brother of fellow top-20 Cubs prospect Christopher Morel, flashed impressive tools on both sides of the ball in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League. He could develop into a legitimate five-tool player down the road, whether it be at shortstop or center field. A quick-twitch athlete with plus speed and a fast bat, Morel obviously pulled the ball too much (60.8%) in his debut, but it's hard to quibble with that from a 17-year-old who had excellent plate skills (14.2 K%, 9.7 BB%) and a low groundball rate (41.6%) — you could say the game was coming too easy for him to really consider taking the ball the other way. He has significant upward potential if he maintains that same approach while showing the same explosive tools in his stateside debut.

I don't really think Garcia or Pena are too low, but I wanted to touch on why I have them ranked where I do. 

Garcia is a 6-foot, 170-pound shortstop out of the Dominican Republic who received $300K from the Nationals on July 2, 2019. He turned 17 in February and has 70-grade speed that anchors the fantasy appeal. He is an exceptional athlete who figures to only get more explosive as he adds muscle. His current bat speed and frame suggest that he will be a 20-plus homer threat in time, so if he hits for average and gets on base at a solid clip, he has the physical tools to be a top-25 prospect.

While Garcia's speed is the big draw and he also projects for notable power, it is the reverse with Pena. His right-handed power is already above-average and it should be at least a plus tool in time, while he also has the speed to steal double-digit bases. A 6-foot-1, 185-pound center fielder out of the Dominican Republic, Pena received $750K from the Rays on July 2, 2019. It is tough to say how he will age — right now he looks like a young Adam Jones. Hopefully he is able to stay lean and maintain above-average speed, which could lead to some 30-homer/12-steal campaigns. If he slows down, he has enough offensive upside to profile comfortably in a corner.

Pitcher: Seth Johnson/Robert Dominguez

It's ridiculous how quickly Johnson has turned himself into a quality starting pitcher. He was a shortstop his first two years of college and in just one year, he showed enough on the mound for the Rays to give him $1.72 million in the 2019 draft. I love when teams draft college relievers with good command and develop them as starters, because there is much less mileage on the arm and there can often be some untapped potential. Johnson can be thought of the same way, but there is even more upside given that he already has three average or better pitchers, a clean delivery and average control and 2020 marks just his second year as a pitcher. His fastball and slider have a chance to be plus, and we can't really cap his average changeup, since he just started throwing it. Josiah Gray took a huge step forward in his second full year as a starter (he was a reliever in college), and we could see the same from Johnson.

Dominguez is a 6-foot-5, 195-pound righty who was touching 99 mph with his fastball shortly after turning 18 in November of 2019. He also has a chance to develop a plus curveball. Just those two sentences would be enough for him to be a first-round pick in June's draft were he eligible. His tools spiked so late in the process that the Mets signed him just before he turned 18. Born in Venezuela, Dominguez's changeup and command are going to be key areas of focus in the coming years. He is a long way from the big leagues, but this is a very, very special arm that could be worth the wait.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Maikol Escotto/Javier Alexander Francisco/Andres Gimenez

Escotto, who turns 18 in a week, received $350K from the Yankees on July 2, 2018. He was seen as a tier below Alexander Vargas, Kevin Alcantara and Antonio Gomez when they all signed, which is why he was sent to the Dominican Summer League while the aforementioned trio came stateside to the Gulf Coast League. It's really tough to rank these Yankees prospects, because Escotto put up monster numbers, albeit with a 26.1 percent strikeout rate, while Vargas and Alcantara struggled at the plate and Gomez impressed in an injury-shortened debut. Escotto is currently a plus runner who projects to develop plus raw power, but at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, it is fair to wonder what his body will look like and how fast he will be when he is 21 or 22. I was lower on Alcantara because of how tall he is (6-foot-6) at such a young age (if he had hit in his debut, I would be in, but I was pessimistic about him hitting enough and he hasn't done anything to change that). Vargas vs. Escotto, on the other hand, is a fascinating debate. Vargas is seven months older and is the better defender, projecting to stick at shortstop while Escotto probably moves to third base or second base. Vargas (5-foot-11, 148 pounds) needs to add weight/muscle while Escotto needs to work diligently on his conditioning to maintain explosive actions in his lower half. Do you take the player with loud tools who made a significant offensive impact (167 wRC+) in the lowest level of affiliated baseball or a player who did well in eight DSL games (137 wRC+, zero HR) before failing to impact the baseball (.219/.301/.335) in 40 GCL games? Vargas has the better bat-to-ball ability and has top-of-the-scale speed, but he may never even be a 15-homer hitter — we just have no idea how the power and the body will develop. Basically, Vargas reminds me of Lucius Fox and Escotto reminds me of Aaron Bracho, but if Vargas can add the necessary muscle and his bat takes off (two big if's), he has the tools to be a top-25 prospect, while Escotto probably never climbs that high. 

There's not much to say about Francisco (sometimes referred to as Javier Alexander Francisco Estrella). The Giants/MLB didn't even report his name correctly (entered as Francisco Javier) in the transactions database, so we don't have an official birthday or an official name for him yet. We also don't know how much he signed for. What we do know, is that he is a skinny 6-foot-2 shortstop from the Dominican Republic who trained with Fernando Tatis Sr. for over a year, and the elder Tatis has since compared him favorably to his prodigy son. The Giants have done as well as anyone in Latin America over the past few years, and Francisco's size, pretty swing (in very limited video) and backstory is compelling enough for me to slot him in somewhere in the top 400. This may be a bit too aggressive, given the lack of quality intel out there, but the fact is most players in this range won't amount to anything anyway, so you might as well aim big.

Gimenez is probably a bench infielder. Offensively, he reminds me of Jose Peraza — he has plus speed, a poor approach and an inability to consistently impact the baseball. However, he does have a chance to be a notably better defensive shortstop than Amed Rosario. I don't really know where to put a guy like this, who appears to have stalled out at Double-A and should probably never get everyday at-bats in the majors, but who could probably steal 20 bases if he got the playing time for some reason. 

Pitcher: Brennan Malone

Blake Walston quickly emerged as the top prep arm the Diamondbacks secured in their prolific 2019 draft class, while Malone, who also received over $2 million, was jettisoned to Pittsburgh as the second piece (Liover Peguero was the big prize) in the Starling Marte trade. This reeked of a team unloading a prospect while he still had notable trade value (Malone was a highly-touted amateur). He certainly looks the part (physically reminiscent of Edwin Jackson) and he has a mid-90s fastball, but it can get straight. He also has a quality slider, but the rest of his secondaries and his fringy command lead to some bullpen risk. Malone remains in the top 300 mostly on reputation/performance as an amateur and some desirable physical characteristics. If he struggles in his first full season, he will quickly be knocked off the top 400. 

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.