This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Predicting when players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Yordan Alvarez will be called up to make their big-league debut during the first five months of the season is an abstract activity that requires instincts, experience and a good feel for how a player's skills will play at the highest level. However, predicting which prospects and former prospects will be recalled when the calendar turns to September and rosters expand is more science than art.
In 90 percent of cases, a player's standing on the 40-man roster will open or shut the door on any conversation about a September callup. Very rarely does it make sense to add a player to the 40-man roster after Sept. 1. This is especially true of teams that are not contending.
There are three instances when a team will add a prospect to the 40-man roster in September. The first instance is when a contending team has a need and the only internal replacement is a prospect who is not on the 40-man roster. This is pretty rare, but it happened last year with Kyle Wright fortifying the Braves' bullpen and a couple years ago with Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler joining the Dodgers for the final month. The second scenario is when a team sees value in getting a look at a player against big-league pitching over the final month, even if they expect that player to head back to the minors at the start of the next season. For instance, Willie Calhoun was
Predicting when players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Yordan Alvarez will be called up to make their big-league debut during the first five months of the season is an abstract activity that requires instincts, experience and a good feel for how a player's skills will play at the highest level. However, predicting which prospects and former prospects will be recalled when the calendar turns to September and rosters expand is more science than art.
In 90 percent of cases, a player's standing on the 40-man roster will open or shut the door on any conversation about a September callup. Very rarely does it make sense to add a player to the 40-man roster after Sept. 1. This is especially true of teams that are not contending.
There are three instances when a team will add a prospect to the 40-man roster in September. The first instance is when a contending team has a need and the only internal replacement is a prospect who is not on the 40-man roster. This is pretty rare, but it happened last year with Kyle Wright fortifying the Braves' bullpen and a couple years ago with Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler joining the Dodgers for the final month. The second scenario is when a team sees value in getting a look at a player against big-league pitching over the final month, even if they expect that player to head back to the minors at the start of the next season. For instance, Willie Calhoun was promoted to the big leagues a little over a month after being traded to Texas two years ago, as his new team wanted to evaluate his bat and glove at the highest level. The third scenario is when a player needs to be added to the 40-man roster in the upcoming offseason in order to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and the team is comfortable clearing a 40-man roster spot for that player prior to the offseason. This was the case with Michael Kopech and Luis Urias late last August, as well as Josh James and Christin Stewart last September.
What follows is an attempt to highlight the notable players who could be added to big-league rosters over the next three weeks (teams don't always wait until September, especially with impact pieces). They are sorted by the position they qualify for in fantasy, and within those positions they are ranked in order of how appealing they should be for fantasy owners looking to receive a boost over the rest of the season. Every player listed under a position is currently on their team's 40-man roster. The last two sections cover the players who will need to be added to their team's 40-man roster during the offseason for Rule 5 protection and those who are not on the 40-man roster and don't need to be added in the offseason.
CATCHER
An extremely flawed player on both sides of the ball, Collins may get a couple starts per week in September for developmental purposes. There's power, and in the minors there has been OBP, but he'll never hit for a high average.
I really like his bat, but Allen is the pretty clear third man on this depth chart.
He'll be up, but he won't play enough to move the needle.
He would need an injury ahead of him to get even a couple starts per week. Jackson could provide power and a terrible batting average if that happens.
FIRST BASE/DH
Dear Tampa Bay Rays, please give Lowe 29 at-bats in September so I don't have to rank him this offseason. Thank you. Ji-Man Choi and Jesus Aguilar are both out of options going forward, so hopefully one or both will be non-tendered in the offseason. While he is best against righties, Lowe is perfectly capable of hitting lefties (.880 OPS against LHP in 2019, .879 OPS against LHP in 2018). I will be buying him in 2020 with the expectation of him being close to an everyday player for most of the season.
Hopefully the Angels will give Walsh a longer look in September now that they are firmly out of the playoff mix. He may just be a Quad-A hitter at the end of the day, but he is a lefty who hit .324/.427/.682 with 30 home runs in 84 games, so it would be nice to see how it translates against MLB pitching.
He will be up, and should get around one start per week barring an injury to Carlos Santana or Franmil Reyes. Santana is under contract through the 2020 season, so Bradley will probably begin next year back at Triple-A.
This was one of a handful of sneaky pickups by the Giants at the trade deadline. McCarthy has some Brandon Belt in him -- good OBP with 18-homer pop. He qualifies at first base on some fantasy sites, but has been playing corner outfield exclusively in 2019.
Guzman just isn't very good, but he's still 24 and he's on the 40-man roster, so I imagine he'll get a dozen or so starts in September.
SECOND BASE
A switch-hitting middle infielder with a chance to have an above-average hit tool, Leyba has tapped into unexpected power (18 HR, .240 ISO) thanks to the unprecedented offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. He won't ever displace Ketel Marte or Nick Ahmed, but I think he could be a quality everyday player if given that opportunity via trade or injury.
Seemingly every hitter with a pulse has been raking in the PCL this year, so I don't find Barreto's production (116 wRC+ with a 27.5 K%) particularly compelling, especially considering he has logged over 250 games at Triple-A. He has been worth -0.4 fWAR and has a 40.2 K% and 3.5 BB% in 199 MLB plate appearances. He will be up in September, but he probably won't play much.
Long is still sidelined at Triple-A with a broken finger, but is expected to be healthy come September. He isn't great at any one thing, but is in a good position to compete for significant playing time in 2020.
Estrada was surprisingly productive in the majors earlier this season, and he probably has a big-league future, but the Yankees are oozing talent at second base, third base and shortstop, so I don't see him getting much playing time in September.
So a 26-year-old who had a 33.5 K% at Triple-A actually isn't the answer at second base for the Cubs? Who could have seen that coming? He will probably get a handful of starts in September.
THIRD BASE
Cron's .325/.442/.829 slash line with 36 home runs and a 19.9 K% in just 68 games at Triple-A is pure insanity, even for a 26-year-old. He fits much better in the American League, but hopefully the Diamondbacks can find a way to give him a few starts per week in September.
Like Shaw below, France is firmly blocked in the majors, but unlike Shaw, I think France is capable of having success if he were given a legitimate look in September due to an injury. He has a chance to hit .400 with 30 home runs this year at Triple-A (currently at .399 with 27 HR).
Unlike veterans like Scott Schebler and Maikel Franco, Shaw has at least been very productive at Triple-A (.283/.442/.587). He has lost some bat speed this year though, and it will probably take a very intensive offseason for him to bounce back to the player he was in 2018.
SHORTSTOP
GM Al Avila has already said (on the record, bizarrely) that Castro will be up this year, so we can count on that. He also has the clearest path to playing time of all these shortstops. I think his opportunity combined with an average or better hit tool and above-average speed could make him relevant, but I also expect him to struggle at the dish in his first taste of big-league pitching.
Kieboom has hit .287/.370/.390 since July 1, so he's not necessarily banging down the door. Still, the Nationals are looking like a playoff team, and Kieboom would improve their big-league roster, so I expect them to bring him back for the final month. He would probably need an injury ahead of him to get more than one start per week.
He is currently on the injured list with minor ankle soreness, but the A's are firmly in the wild-card mix, and Mateo could help them with his defense and speed on the bases, at the very least. With Jurickson Profar set for a reduction in playing time, Mateo will have to wrestle starts away from Corban Joseph and Chad Pinder.
Tucker took more of his big-league struggles with him back to the minors than I was expecting. He is hitting just .240/.328/.365 with five home runs and five steals since his demotion in early June. I still think he has a chance to be valuable in redraft leagues at some point next season, but my confidence isn't where it was a month or two ago.
To Russell's credit, he has been good at Triple-A (.293/.400/.587), but it would really only be noteworthy if he had been bad. He will be up and he will play, but probably not more than once or twice per week.
Dubon lacks noteworthy fantasy tools, and now he has to play half his games in Oracle Park. He will probably be up, but I think he begins 2020 back at Triple-A.
Gordon, who is on the injured list with a leg injury, has been solid this year in a return to the International League, but he has only been a league-average hitter, and still isn't getting to much power. Even if he gets healthy and gets the call, there is nowhere for him to play.
OUTFIELD
What do we even do with this guy? For all his exploits (32 HR, 25 SB), he has only logged a 114 wRC+ in a repeat trip to the Pacific Coast League. By any measure, Tucker was significantly better at Triple-A in 2018 than in 2019. I think they would have traded him at this year's deadline if a better young, controllable pitcher than Matthew Boyd was available (i.e. Noah Syndergaard), but they simply didn't need to deal him with that Greinke trade available and Syndergaard unavailable. Josh Reddick has been awful over the past couple months (.596 OPS since mid-June), so there is playing time available if they believe Tucker is deserving of that kind of opportunity.
Hays does not walk -- a flaw shared by many other young hitters in this organization, but he has legitimate power, opportunity, and a nice home ballpark waiting for him.
It seems like every hitter the Yankees give opportunities to takes advantage of said opportunities, so Frazier doesn't have a clear avenue to playing time when he rejoins the big-league club. He has also been shockingly bad at Triple-A (79 wRC+) for a player with age, experience and tools.
If Straw were just on a mediocre team, he would play every day, probably lead off, and steal 20-plus bases. He's a better baseball player than Delino DeShields Jr. or Mallex Smith, for instance. Unfortunately he is on a legendary team with few opportunities available. He should be used as a pinch runner and should get a start per week down the stretch.
Hilliard strikes out a lot (29.0 K%), but he has a lot of other things going for him. He is on the the Rockies. He is on the 40-man roster. He is a good defender in right field. He has above-average speed. He has plus power. The only Colorado outfielders who are better real-life players than Hilliard are Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl. Of course, being on the Rockies has its drawbacks when it comes to sports actually being a meritocracy.
Alford has been hitting well in nine games (12-for-33 with four home runs and three steals) since returning from an oblique injury. I don't think he is ready to hit for a high average against big-league pitching, but his speed is legitimate and he has some pop. He also may be given an opportunity to play somewhat regularly if he can finish out the minor-league season on a high note.
For as underwhelming as Williams has been against big-league pitching, especially this year, he still has a 96 wRC+ over 898 MLB plate plate appearances, so he hasn't been a complete disaster. He also has a .342 average and eight home runs in 36 games at Triple-A. He has been passed by Adam Haseley on the organizational depth chart, but Jay Bruce, Corey Dickerson and Roman Quinn are seemingly always injured, so maybe there will be at-bats waiting for Williams in September.
The A's have soured on Fowler over the past year, and his 92 wRC+ is pretty underwhelming for a 24-year-old with over 200 games under his belt at Triple-A. There's some power and speed here, but there probably isn't opportunity or a high batting average.
Dean has been unable to translate Triple-A success over against big-league pitching through 210 MLB plate appearances. He should get another shot this September after hitting .345/.416/.655 with 16 home runs in 65 games in the Pacific Coast League.
He will be back up, but there isn't really anywhere for him to play regularly. Bauers now has a .218 batting average in 771 MLB plate appearances.
The Cardinals gave Bader a very long look as a semi-regular outfielder this season and he failed that extensive audition. He profiles best as a short-side platoon option and defensive replacement.
It is a small sample, but Williams has been really good through 17 games at Triple-A, hitting .357 with two home runs and an 11:8 K:BB in 50 plate appearances. Unfortunately I just don't see an opportunity opening up for him this year.
I'm convinced that people wouldn't have gotten excited about Bolt when he came up earlier in the year if he didn't have that 80-grade name. He is a fine player to have in your organization, but I don't think he'll ever get a chance to be a big-league regular.
Shaw still has big raw power, but as a holdover from the past regime, I doubt he gets opportunities over similar, recently acquired hitters.
STARTING PITCHER
Unless Gerrit Cole's hamstring injury turns out to be serious, the Astros don't have an opening in the rotation for Urquidy. However, I liked what I saw from him in the big leagues, so if he gets a spot starter or two down the stretch I would feel good about deploying him, given the run support Astros pitchers tend to get.
Webb has a mid-90s fastball, and a curveball with plus potential. There are some concerns regarding the quality of his changeup, but he has been pounding the strike zone since returning from an 80-game PED suspension, and was excellent in his Triple-A debut earlier this week. He may not get the call, but if he does, he immediately becomes an appealing streaming option.
The Rays appear to be grooming Richards at Triple-A for a primary pitcher role. Typically when the Rays acquire a pitcher in a trade, that pitcher reaches a new gear. He could be up before September.
Wright got off to a rough start to the season, but he has a 2.26 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 62:15 K:BB in 55.2 innings over his last nine starts at Triple-A. Since Wright hasn't had the big-league failures that Bryse Wilson has this season, he may be the first one to get the next opportunity.
There is no spot for Wilson right now, but that could certainly change by the time September rolls around. His struggles in the big leagues were all tied to fastball command. He needs to locate that pitch early in the count. Wilson has a 5.5 BB% at Triple-A and an 11.8 BB% in the majors. That's the difference.
Gonsolin probably won't slot into this rotation anytime soon, but he could get another spot start, and with no more Coors Field games on the schedule for the Dodgers, I would be pretty tempted to stream him in most formats.
Palumbo is expected to join the rotation Aug. 20 for a doubleheader against the Angels. I have zero concerns regarding his struggles in nine MLB innings. Those innings came out of necessity -- the back of the Rangers' rotation has been a disaster and they lack quality options on the 40-man roster. In a perfect developmental world, we'd still be waiting for Palumbo to make his big-league debut. He has been really good in five Triple-A starts, and I still believe in him developing into a No. 3 starter.
Thorpe has a 3.02 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 47.2 innings over his last 10 starts at Triple-A. I don't know if he will get to make any starts down the stretch, but I would feel decent about deploying him if he did get a spot start against a lesser opponent.
Burke has had some really good starts at Triple-A lately -- he had a four-start stretch from July 19 through Aug. 8 where he gave up three runs with a 28:2 K:BB over 21.2 innings. Burke, along with Palumbo, has better stuff and a higher ceiling than three of the five pitchers in the big-league rotation.
I still think Duplantier's future is in the bullpen, but the Diamondbacks probably won't confirm that fate this year or next year. He could get some starts in September, but I don't think I'd trust him to be successful in most matchups and I certainly wouldn't bank on him going long enough to qualify for a win.
Alzolay could get spot starts if the Cubs suffer an injury to someone in the rotation, but he hasn't been going very deep in his starts at Triple-A lately after missing time with a biceps injury.
Sheffield is expected to join the rotation before September, but I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him in any roto formats unless I had nothing to lose with my ratios.
I'm sure Menez could get more starts down the stretch, but unless he's facing a bad team at home, I'm staying away.
OFFSEASON 40-MAN ADDS
I'd probably bet against Fraley getting the call, but next year will be his age-25 season, and he will clearly be their best center fielder in camp, so if they think he may break camp on the 25-man roster, it would make sense to let him get his feet wet in September. He has power, but more importantly he has speed.
Like Fraley, I'd bet against Johnson getting the call, but I think the Indians should purchase his contract for the stretch run. He's an upgrade over Tyler Naquin in every aspect of the game -- there's a big defensive gap in Johnson's favor. For our purposes, there's power and speed and he could mash righties from day one.
Solak is hitting .340/.375/.680 with nine home runs and two steals in 25 games since getting traded to Texas, with 20 starts coming at second base and the rest coming in the outfield corners. I doubt they'd bench Rougned Odor much in September, so maybe all those starts at second base is a clue that they're not planning on bringing him up for the final month.
I didn't really care much about Davis when he was in the Twins' system, just because he seemed pretty blocked, but it's a different story in San Francisco. He has always had monster raw power, but he didn't really get to it much in games in 2018. Since getting dealt to the Giants, he is hitting .333 with two home runs, 12 strikeouts and seven walks in 11 games.
Mountcastle has more home runs (21) than walks (17) in 109 games at Triple-A. I could see him getting the call and having initial success until the book gets out on him.
It's hard not to feel for Murphy, who missed almost three months with a knee injury and then re-injured his knee after a scorching hot run to close out July. He would be an upgrade for the A's on offense and defense if he can return in time to make a difference down the stretch.
I was getting ready to add Tom in a dynasty league prior to the Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes acquisitions. Now I'm less sure he'll get a look at regular playing time anytime soon. He is only 5-foot-9, but is hitting .288/.377/.516 with 17 home runs across stops at Double-A and Triple-A. Tom is a pretty good defender, so I expect them to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason if they don't do so in September.
Toro has had an amazing season, and will be a borderline top-30 prospect this offseason, but there is nowhere for him to play in the majors, and he has only played 10 games at Triple-A. If he gets the call, I'm extremely interested in adding him, but don't bet on it.
This one makes a ton of sense, as Pache's defense could be a late-game weapon in September and beyond, but if he got the call, I doubt he'd get more than a few starts over the final month.
Considering the Mariners are going to bring up Justus Sheffield after demoting him to Double-A, why not bring up Dunn as well without exposing him to Triple-A hitters? Dunn's fringe-average command is my top concern with him, and he will need plenty of reps against big-league hitters before he is pitching at his best at the top level.
I dropped Kay in TDGX this past week, which is hardly groundbreaking given his struggles at Triple-A. The move to the AL East doesn't help matters. Even if he gets the call, I would be pretty terrified to start him in leagues where I care about my ratios.
Garcia may get the call, but he would be up to pitch out of the bullpen, not the rotation. He has really struggled at Triple-A. There's no shame in that, given the fact he is 20 years old and started the year at High-A, but it's not like he has necessarily earned the call this year.
Anyone could have taken Wong in last year's Rule 5 draft, and he was coming off a decent year (112 wRC+) at Triple-A. Unsurprisingly, he has been better during his third tour of the International League, but there's still not much power or speed for fantasy purposes.
Finally the world is starting to make sense again -- Peters is 5-for-35 with 15 strikeouts over his last 10 games at Triple-A. He would be a legitimate weapon against left-handed pitchers if the Dodgers add him, but they don't really need him.
It's great to see Neuse bounce back after a disappointing first tour of the PCL, but I'm fairly skeptical of him hitting big-league pitching if he were to get the call this year. He's also blocked at all the positions he can play.
Like Wong, Padlo was also readily available in last year's Rule 5 draft. Since then he has adjusted his launch angle and is hitting .264/.386/.553 with 19 home runs and 12 steals across stops at Double-A and Triple-A. Even with a thinned-out depth chart at third base, Padlo is still probably a long shot get much of a look in September.
NON-40-MAN CANDIDATES
If the Dodgers don't bring Lux up this year, I really hope they get bounced early in the postseason. With a talent like this, most teams are going to be tempted to wait until mid-April of 2020 so that they can maximize their club control over him, but A) that's unethical and B) flags fly forever and Lux gives them a better chance to win a World Series this year.
I am stashing Luzardo in a 15-team mixed league with seven-man benches, and I recommend doing the same if you have an easy drop candidate. As long as the A's stay in the race, I think Luzardo will be up in time to make four or five starts.
Anderson could be a big-time weapon for the Braves down the stretch and in the postseason. So far he has logged one good start and one bad start at Triple-A. If he stacks a couple more good starts, it will make more and more sense to bring him up. It's not a lock that he would enter the rotation, however. He has matched his workload from a year ago, so he could probably throw another 30-40 innings before the Braves worry about capping his innings.
Adell probably would have already debuted if not for his early-season hamstring and ankle injuries. He will be a top-200 pick in early 2020 redraft leagues, and will probably be going inside the top-150 by March.
The only reason Robert or Madrigal would come up this year is if the White Sox planned on breaking camp in 2020 with them on the 25-man roster. That seems highly unlikely, but crazier things have happened. Madrigal is not the type of player who would make a big impact in a 25-game stretch, but Robert absolutely could.
GM Jeff Luhnow didn't rule out Whitley debuting down the stretch, but he essentially said it's not happening due to the fact he is not on the 40-man roster.
The expectation is that Puk will join the big-league bullpen at some point, and while he has the stuff to excel in that role, I would rather roster someone like Joe Kelly or Adam Ottavino if I were just looking to add a non-closer reliever.
