Farm Futures: Top 400 Prospect Rankings Update

The Top 400 Prospect Rankings were fully updated Tuesday afternoon, and I answered a bunch of your questions on Wednesday's Prospect Podcast. The ETAs are all updated and I'll be working on getting the team top 20s and OBP arrows up to date this week.

Below is the full mailbag, with more questions than I got to on the podcast, and then I'll have another article soon about prospect sleepers for 2025.

Chief Eth: After rough starts to their professional careers, Kumar Rocker (TEX) and Jack Leiter (TEX) are both now ranked top 125. Is this a lesson in patience when dealing with pitchers with prospect pedigree? Or are they outliers in overcoming early professional struggles to right the prospect ship? (I understand they've had different issues but grouping them together because of the Vanderbilt connection)

I think Rocker's Tommy John surgery could go down as the best Tommy John surgery to date, in terms of the pitcher/prospect he was before the surgery and the pitcher he was after returning. His stuff is either as good as it has ever been or as good as it was at his peak at Vanderbilt. There is still some risk here, but for the moment it seems like he's at the peak of his powers. There was so much negative reporting regarding the health of his arm from 2021 through 2022, beyond the idea of him potentially needing Tommy John surgery, that I was fully prepared for him to be the Rangers' closer of the future as early as 2025, especially as mostly a two-pitch pitcher. Rocker has had such a unique journey that I'm not sure if there's a lesson here. He was even unranked coming into the year on the big sites that tend to be more grounded in prospect pedigree, so I don't think anyone saw this coming.

I don't view ranking Leiter at 116 as a vote of confidence, or that he is some example of the virtue of patience. Trading Leiter at peak value or the FYPD pick that became Leiter was still by far the best course of action with the benefit of hindsight.

Jeff McDowell: I see you have moved Kumar Rocker (TEX) way up. And you moved Arjun Nimmala (TOR) way up. Your thoughts?

The only negatives with Rocker are the fact he's mostly a two-pitch guy and he's got a very lengthy injury history and will enter 2025 having only thrown around 40 inning this year. If you told me I was getting 100 innings in the majors from Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Bubba Chandler, Andrew Painter and Noah Schultz next season, I think I'd take Rocker's 100 innings over the other four pitching prospects in my top 25, as he is probably entering his prime right now, and the others were all prep arms who are just ascending, or stalling, in Jobe's case. 

As for Nimmala, he's got insane bat speed and a very questionable hit tool, but he's so young and has improved so much from the beginning of the season when he was overmatched at Single-A. There's a bit of a boom or bust feel with Nimmala, as I could see the strikeouts steadily ticking down as he gets more comfortable against pro pitching, or potentially spiking to a dangerous place after his promotion to High-A or Double-A.

PaulMax: Some real-life lists have Starlyn Caba (PHI) pushing top 50 on the basis of the playing time floor that his glove offers. What does he have to show to move up to the top 50 for fantasy?

Potentially elite defensive shortstops/center fielders are right up there with catchers in terms of prospects who can often be much more valuable in real life than fantasy, so I buy the notion that Caba is a borderline top-50 real-life prospect. If I was confident in him being a 20-homer threat in his mid-20s, I'd have him well inside the top 100, but he hasn't really shown any signs of that type of power yet. There's a case for just betting on the playing time, hit tool and speed and I probably would have gone that route if he had just teased a little pop at Single-A, but he's got zero extra-base hits and a 58.3 GB% in 23 games. Franklin Arias (BOS) is a worthwhile comparison, as he came into the year with a similar scouting report to Caba and showed notable power in the Florida Complex League and then at least did some damage at Single-A. If Caba had done that, he'd probably be around 75 overall.

Camposite: Charlie Condon (COL) seems to have taken quite the tumble. What are the concerns there?

Two walks and 29 strikeouts in his first 21 games is a pretty big red flag. I was pretty open about this being a year to be cautious about buying into what the college hitters did in the spring. In addition to players using illegal bats and the balls being juiced, there have even been whispers about potential video-related cheating in college home games, so there were going to be some college hitters who put up bogus numbers and would be exposed in pro ball. It's too early to say Condon will be a bust, but there's basically nothing positive to point to from his debut.

ChzBeef: You seem to be the biggest holdout on Chase Dollander (COL), and seeing him at 150 when Baseball America has him 5 is significant. He's a clear cut SP — do you think there's any chance he can be successful at Coors (or at least manage the home starts), and do you really believe in the 40 pitchers ahead of him more?

Dollander is maybe the most interesting/challenging player to rank for fantasy lists since I've been doing this. It's been easy to just always downgrade/ignore Rockies pitchers, since they haven't had any nearly as good as Dollander. He's probably the first Rockies pitcher I've ranked on the top 400 since Jon Gray. Ubaldo Jimenez (2010) and German Marquez (2018) are the only times a Rockies starter has put up an SP1-caliber season since I've been playing fantasy, and there are lots of other stats you could dig up about how much worse Rockies pitchers are for generating fantasy stats than those on the other 29 teams. I don't disagree with other rankers about Dollander's talent — I wouldn't have him as high as BA, but I'd have him top 25. It's just tough for me to recommend highly valuing a Rockies pitching prospect. I don't have a problem with anyone else viewing him as top 50 or top 75 for fantasy, because nobody really knows how this will play out, given Dollander's talent.

Ross Redcay: I'm a little surprised to see Drew Gilbert (NYM) fall so far. Seems like this year can be mostly explained by injury and small sample noise. Are you seeing something else that gives you pause? Or are you maybe more concerned about the pattern/frequency of the injuries now?

I may have lowered him too much. One factor here is that I only recently learned that Gilbert was likely using an illegal bat while at Tennessee, and my love for pre-draft Gilbert was doing a lot of the lifting in terms of where he'd been ranked as a prospect. We can pretty much throw out what he did as a 22-year-old at Asheville in 2023, so that 35-game run with Binghamton is the one thing to point to that suggests there's notable pop here. His 21.6 Hard% and 26.5 Soft% this year is pretty ugly, and he only had a 23.6 Hard% in 2023. He turns 24 this month and should return to Triple-A next season, so another mediocre showing at Triple-A would tank his stock. 

Chief Eth: What are your instant impressions from the first month of action for players from the 2024 draft and how you'd approach it from a FYPD perspective?

It's very fluid. Basically, unless Roki Sasaki (possible, not guaranteed) gets posted this winter, I would be looking to be in a spot where I think I can land Jac Caglianone (KC) or Cam Smith (CHC). I think what we see from the college hitters in this small sample against pro pitching is more important than everything they did in college. It's a great example of why I hate the idea of doing first-year player drafts in dynasty leagues until the winter.

Diatomaceouschris: I'm curious about Colt Emerson's (SEA) drop. Just seemed to have a bad seven games there. Wondering also how he compares to someone like Kevin McGonigle (DET). Do they both have limited upsides?

Emerson and McGonigle are quite different. With Emerson, the realistic ceiling is a high AVG/OBP third baseman who grows into 25-30 homer pop and limited speed as he fills out. With McGonigle, the ceiling is a high AVG/OBP second baseman with 15-homer pop and 30-plus steals.

As for Emerson's drop, I didn't wasnt any of the guys in the 30s or 40s to have down arrows, but those are automated. Essentially it's a gigantic tier for me after Max Clark at 11. Emerson should grow into significant power, as he's hit the ball hard this year, but we're still mostly just projecting over-the-fence power and he projects to play in one of the worst parks for a hitting prospect to come up in. In hindsight, I wish I hadn't bumped Eduardo Quintero (LAD), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), Zebby Matthews (MIN), Yilber Diaz (ARI), Quinn Mathews (STL) up above Emerson/Lazaro Montes (SEA), and I wish I'd lowered draft guys like Charlie Condon (COL) and JJ Wetherholt (STL) even more, but I didn't want to overreact to their bad starts.

Cpar_08: How can the Marco Luciano (SF) development story be such a disaster!?! From anointed starting SS coming into the season to DH at best!

Well, I hope you didn't take the quote from the team about him being the shortstop at face value. That seemed comical at the time given how bad he was in 2023. I still think there's some appeal to buying low on Luciano in deep dynasty leagues, but he's just a flyer at this point.

Mike Greer: What did Sebastian Walcott (TEX) show you in the last month to finally make it into the elite tier? Also, it feels like you've been on the fence with Max Clark (DET) all year — what made you suddenly decide to make a big upward move after staying steady for so long?

For the record, I wasn't looking at Walcott's last month (.818 OPS, 23.6 K%) when determining his ranking, it's more about the totality of his season. In his last 100 games, Walcott is slashing .283/.360/.475 with 11 home runs, 25 steals, a 10.4 BB% and a 24.0 K% at High-A and he doesn't turn 19 until the middle of spring training. This is up there with Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis from an age/level excellence standpoint, and Walcott's got the same kind of physical tools as Acuna/Tatis/Elly De La Cruz. There's a big group of subscribers who are only chasing upside who will love this ranking, and there's another big group who are hit tool hawks and think he's too risky to be up there. I generally understand both sides, and I view Walcott, Jasson Dominguez (NYY), Roman Anthony (BOS), Walker Jenkins (MIN) and Leodalis De Vries (SD) in the same tier, so if you prefer any of the others, that's completely fine.

Clark slugged .525 from July 1 on, including a promotion to High-A, after slugging .365 through the first three months. I knew he could start getting to more power, but I wasn't sure if/when he would, and now it's happening.

Luke Anderson: Can you touch on some of the young arms in the Rays pitching factory (specifically Yoniel Curet, Jackson Baumeister and Ty Johnson)? Will they be able to help Dylan Lesko turn things around??

Curet is similar to guys like Yilber Diaz (ARI) and Ben Brown (CHC), who came into the year with big-time stuff and massive bullpen risk. It was more of the same early in the season, but he's got a 1.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 61.2 innings over his last 13 starts. He's already on the 40-man roster, so we could see him in the big-league rotation mix as early as next summer. 

Baumeister has been ridiculous since getting traded from Baltimore in the Zach Eflin deal. He just K'd a career-high 11 batters in his most recent start and has a 1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and 35:4 K:BB in 24 innings since joining the Rays. The dip in walks (14.0 BB% with BAL, 4.6 BB% with TB) is a big story with Baumeister, who seems ready for a bump to Double-A. 

Like with Baumeister, it seems the Rays knew what they were doing when targeting Johnson at the deadline as part of the package from Chicago for Isaac Paredes. Johnson has a big-time fastball that plays up even more due to his 6-foot-6 frame. He has a 0.78 ERA, 0.61 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 23 innings since the trade.

Lesko got bumped off the rankings after displaying some of the worst control I can recall from a pitcher over a full season. The fewest walks he's had in a start this season is two, and he's walked three or more batters in 16 of his 20 starts, which is terrible when you consider he's logging fewer than five innings in most outings. I was hoping Lesko would show some signs after the trade from San Diego, but it's been bad (16 walks in 12.1 innings). I still generally like that he got a change of scenery, but it's going to be a major challenge for Lesko and the Rays to develop him into a starting pitcher.

Schmidty: Can you discuss the differences you see between Santiago Suarez (TB) and Gary Gill Hill (TB)? 

Projection and upside favor Gill Hill. Suarez probably has slightly better command at this stage, but command and control aren't weaknesses for Gill Hill, and he's got better present stuff and more long-term upside. Gill Hill is lean and athletic, while I expect Suarez to steadily lose athleticism and eventually develop a husky innings-eater frame. Suarez has No. 3 starter upside, and I think Gill Hill could end up being a top-five pitching prospect in a couple years.

Patrick Gilbert: How does the Pirates rotation look in 2025/2026?

Pittsburgh's rotation could be one of the best in the game by 2026, health permitting. In addition to Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones, I expect Bubba Chandler to compete for a rotation spot in the spring, and Thomas Harrington should join the rotation by the middle of the summer. Those are the Pirates' big five, as I see it. Unfortunately, I doubt it plays out exactly like this, as none of Skenes, Keller, Jones, Chandler or Harrington have had Tommy John surgery yet, so it will probably come for at least one of them by the end of next year. Even if that happens, they've got Mike Burrows, Hunter Barco, Braxton Ashcraft and Carlson Reed who all come with different questions but could be replacement options if all goes well.

Hynes: Is Braxton Ashcraft's (PIT) drop due to a potential Tommy John surgery?

He had Tommy John surgery in 2021, so it'd be disastrous for him to need his second already. The drop for Ashcraft was more about his inability to build up his innings than a fear of a specific surgery. His forearm injury could be the precursor for a second TJS, but even if it's not, the fact is he turns 25 this offseason and this year's 73 innings mark a career high. 

Ross Redcay: Curious why the drop for JR Ritchie (ATL)? He's been quite good since coming back, seemed on the verge of a major breakout before TJ, and just got the bump to High-A. And of course we know Atlanta will move their arms aggressively...

I didn't mean to lower Ritchie, it just kind of happened with others moving up/getting added in front of him. I agree with everything you said, but I think it's telling that Atlanta hasn't moved Ritchie aggressively. I was surprised he made seven appearances at Single-A this year, especially given how successful he was. I also thought we might see a velocity bump for Ritchie post TJS, but he's been sitting 92-93 mph with his fastball this year. I still like his command and offspeed stuff, so don't panic about where he's ranked, but I honestly expected him to have been at High-A for at least a month by now.

CH4RLEYS: Any concern with Jordan Lawlar's (ARI) long-term durability given he barely played this season?

Absolutely. Lawlar is a very tough guy to rank right now. He might be injury prone, but I think it's a little too early to say he definitely is, and it's something guys can put behind them. Here's Lawlar's lengthy injury history since getting drafted out of high school in 2021: Shoulder surgery, back injury, fractured scapula, wrist injury, HBP on hand, thumb surgery, hamstring strain. That will certainly scare plenty of people off of valuing him as highly as I have him ranked, but he just turned 22 and for next year I'm viewing him as a risky, albeit big-league ready shortstop prospect who has 20/30 upside.

Big Doink: If you had to pick a couple guys who haven't debuted yet but you think have a good shot at making the 2025 Opening Day roster for their teams, who would you choose?

Here's three that I think have a good shot: Bubba Chandler (PIT), Dalton Rushing (LAD), Edgar Quero (CHW)

Bonus wild card: Kumar Rocker (TEX) — if he pitches like he has this year, he'll be ready to make the rotation in camp, but they'll need to find a way to manage his workload, so I could see them slow playing things out of the gate.

M_Festtt: Jett Williams (NYM), despite missing basically the entire year to injury, is this your highest rank yet? No loss of confidence or having him bypassed by others who have performed well this year? What is peak projection and at what position(s)?

Williams peaked at No. 14 overall in October 2023. I haven't lost or gained confidence in Williams, he just seems like the same guy he was before the injury. He can play shortstop, but I doubt he'd take that spot from Francisco Lindor anytime soon, so second base and center field are the other options. I've always viewed Williams' ceiling as roughly 90 percent of Corbin Carroll, so batting average and OBP should be strengths to go with 40-steal upside and what I believe will eventually be 20-homer power. 

Beerbot: Big jump for Yilber Diaz (ARI). He's just coming off IL, can you touch on why he made the jump? 

He was on the IL for less than two weeks and he's struck out 13 in two of his last six starts at Triple-A. Diaz has a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his last five starts in the Pacific Coast League, which is an impressive feat given that two of those starts were in Albuquerque and one was in Reno. I'm viewing him as a high-upside/high-strikeout starter who is ready to compete for a rotation spot in spring training. Diaz has struggled to throw strikes at times, so the floor is pretty low, but this has been a very impressive campaign for him, as I thought he was a reliever coming into the year and now I believe in him as a starter.

O's Flows: What's going on with Xavier Isaac's (TB) K%?

David Addison: I'm wondering why Lazaro Montes (SEA) continues to drop with the arrow down, hasn't he been crushing lately?

I'm grouping the Isaac and Montes questions together, since they illustrate the issue with how big that fourth tier of prospects is. They both struck out a little too much at High-A, and now Isaac is striking out way too much at Double-A, and they're both in the same tier, even though Montes has down arrows and I haven't lowered Isaac. 

To David's question (and others I got about Montes), I didn't notice he'd seemingly fixed the K issue over the last two weeks, if we want to even look at two weeks as a big enough sample to say something's fixed. There have always been more questions in the scouting community about Montes' hit tool than Isaac's, and I think Isaac is still the safer bet to hit enough to play every day, but you should view them as much closer in value than being 28 spots apart like they are on the rankings.

Parker: How does Luis Merejo (CLE) stack up from a scouting perspective?

Merejo, who opened the year in complex ball and has raked even more after a promotion to Single-A, has a good bat path and has logged groundball rates below 38 percent at every stop. He doesn't really mess around with using the whole field yet, as he's aggressively looking to hammer pitches to the pull side in hitter's counts. I highly doubt the speed (he's got 11 steals this year) will be a thing when he's 22 or 23, but it's a pretty classic first base profile (save for the fact he's R/R). I could see the strikeouts creeping up at High-A and Double-A, but no concerns about him hitting for enough power.

ChzBeef: What is sending Luis Pena (MIL) and Jesus Made (MIL) in such opposite directions? I've seen people who have a similar opinion of them to you, and others who actually prefer Pena slightly...

Power projection is the difference. Pena is very fast and athletic and showed a good hit tool in the Dominican Summer League, but he hit just one home run in 44 games, which lined up with his pre-DSL scouting report. The DSL is so power-friendly that it's notable when a player doesn't hit for over-the-fence power there. Made, on the other hand, checks every single box. He's got Pena's speed and athleticism but he's also got a lightning-quick bat and a very projectable frame and hit six homers in 51 games. 

PTGD - A$$MAN: Who is on your short list of players not currently in the top 50 who you believe have the best chance of being ranked in the top 10 at this time next year? Who are some ranked outside the top 100 you feel have a shot at top 10?

Outside the top 50, any of Braden Montgomery (BOS), Konnor Griffin (PIT), Felnin Celesten (SEA), Arjun Nimmala (TOR), Theo Gillen (TB), Bryce Rainer (DET), Cam Collier (CIN), Ethan Salas (SD), Jonny Farmelo (SEA) could be top 10 in a year.

Outside the top 100, Jaison Chourio (CLE), Slade Caldwell (ARI), George Lombard (NYY), Tai Peete (SEA), Luis Merejo (CLE), Kellon Lindsey (LAD), Sammy Stafura (CIN), Brandon Winokur (MIN), Brailer Guerrero (TB) are some guys with at least a small chance of being top 10 in a year.

JJ: I have Junior Caminero, Walker Jenkins (MIN), Dylan Crews (six player rookie roster). I will drop Spencer Jones (NYY) and Ethan Holliday (amateur) for Sebastian Walcott (TEX) and Leodalis De Vries (SD). Based on projected ceiling, should I drop Charlie Condon for Matt Shaw (CHC)?

You absolutely should. Holding Condon over Shaw for the sake of upside kind of misses the mark in my opinion. Condon's 99th percentile outcome is higher than Shaw's, but Shaw is very likely to be at least a top 150 player in fantasy during his prime, while Condon could realistically never be a top 200 player. 

Cody Martin: No George Wolkow (CHW)? Why?

There were a lot of tough cuts on this update, and Wolkow was among them. His 53.5 percent contact rate was tough to get past, even given how young he is. I wouldn't roster him over the guys I ranked, but if you prefer to chase his power and bet on him developing his hit tool, that's OK.

Hamiltron: When will Justin Crawford (PHI) get some JR Anderson love? Do you think he's overrated?

I do think Crawford is overrated. His stats look better on the surface than under the hood and he has pedigree plus name value and a better in real-life than fantasy skill set that all contributes to him being overrated. His game is all about hitting the ball on the ground to the opposite field to get on first base and then steal second base. He'll get to the big leagues, and his defense may even earn him significant playing time, but he's not going to do any damage against big-league pitching, and I don't even think his current approach would work in the majors. Crawford is better than someone like Chandler Simpson (TB), because Crawford's defense will help get him playing time, but the slap-hitting speedster types aren't usually for me. Jaison Chourio (CLE) and Enrique Bradfield (BAL) fit into this bin too, but I think Chourio has shown more signs of at least showing 15-homer potential and Bradfield is at least working on trying to drive the ball more and he's an even more valuable defender than Crawford.

Stefan Wasylko: Why so low on Dylan Beavers (BAL)? Realize he's blocked like a lot of Orioles prospects, but 14 HRs and 30 SBs at Double-A is a pretty solid power/speed combo. Personally think he's trade bait this offseason for the birds...

Beavers currently projects as a guy who would only play regularly for a second-division team, so yes he's blocked in Baltimore. I also question whether he'll do enough damage offensively to even maintain a regular role on a bad team. He's hit 16 home runs in 144 games at Double-A. He might be a tweener where the bat isn't quite good enough for a corner and the glove isn't quite good enough for center field. 

FantasyBaseballGuy: How did Cade Horton (CHC) fall so far in your rankings? He had a few mediocre starts at AAA this year before getting hurt but has generally been dominant at every level since being drafted.

He was dominant prior to this year, but there were warning signs starting in spring training, with him not being in big-league camp. Then he was surprisingly re-assigned to Double-A and his velocity was down after a promotion to Triple-A. There are just a lot of red flags here and I'm worried he might be broken and need another surgery. He has still never thrown 90 innings in a season, and a lot would need to go right for him to pass that mark in 2025.

Kyle: C.J. Kayfus (CLE) with double down arrows after a big rise. Are you worried about him?

I probably raised him too high previously, and then there were also other pop-up guys and draftees who pushed him down. I like the range he is in right now with guys like Max Muncy (OAK), Andres Chaparro (WAS) and Mike Boeve (MIL). These players all have a chance to be passable everyday corner infielders who won't be top 10 fantasy options at their position but could do enough to be mixed-league starters. Kayfus' 25.7 Hard% and 70.8 Contact% aren't amazing marks for a Double-A first baseman.

Clint: Why does Noble Meyer (MIA) seem to be slipping in prospect rankings?

I'm always looking for reasons to be pessimistic about prep righties, as they're the riskiest subset of high-dollar draftees, and Meyer has a 17.2 percent walk rate this year (55 walks in 74 innings). Even when everything seemingly goes perfectly with a guy like Andrew Painter or Forrest Whitley on their march to the upper minors, injury can strike (Painter, Whitley) or command/mechanics (Whitley) can derail things. So when there is already a clear flaw in the lower levels like there is with Meyer, my concern level gets pretty high. I gave Jackson Jobe (DET) the benefit of the doubt on this update, but I'm a little concerned about his control regressing lately as well.

The Bullpen: The massive expansion of minor league coverage and dynasty players over the last decade is unbelievable. How does one find an advantage now with all the coverage and skill?

It's pretty incredible how many good outlets there are for prospect coverage compared to 10-15 years ago, and many of the best new prospect analysts just do their own thing on Substack or Patreon. My advice wouldn't be to "find an advantage" but to cut out your own weaknesses. For me, that was trading. In dynasty, I've been very good at picking up prospects and drafting in first-year player drafts, but I've lost too many trades over the years because I don't really have the killer instinct to look to rip people off. Now I just don't trade unless it's something obvious. If there's something in your game you think is really hurting your teams, be honest with yourself about it and try to improve.