Hitting Category Targets for 2025

Hitting Category Targets for 2025

When I set out to write my annual category targets article, I was tempted to write something on the order of "… just use last year's targets …." After all, we had no big sweeping rules changes implemented in 2024, there weren't too many allegations of MLB drastically changing the ball, we didn't have a shortened season in our data set, or any other major changes. But as you'll see in the data, 2024 did not play out as 2023 did, thus altering my outlook looking forward.

But before we dive into the data, here's a brief primer on the purpose of this article.

Every year I like to look back at the past three seasons to determine what it took to reach certain category targets in the NFBC 15-team Main Event, 12-team Online Championship and the 15-team TGFBI contests. I selected those contests because of the high sample size each provide, and the readily available data. It's important to understand that each of these contests has an overall contest component, and thus makes strategies where one punts a category very difficult, albeit not impossible. In a stand-alone league, those strategies are a lot more viable.

As always, I'm going to list the 80th/70th/50th percentile category targets for each stat. The general rule of thumb is that you need to average the 80th percentile across each category in order to win your league and contend for a paying spot in the overall main event. You need to average the 70th percentile to try to cash in your individual league. And the 50th percentile is listed as a basic guidepost to illustrate where you're really falling behind if you fall short of that benchmark. We'll do hitting categories here, and pitching categories in a subsequent article.

This applies best for roto-style leagues. I don't have much data from head-to-head leagues, which I realize are an ever-growing format in popularity. But while I think the raw numbers might change, I imagine the trends in the production are similar.

Before we look at the individual categories in roto leagues, let's first look at the league-wide hitting data.

Bring back the "Happy Fun Ball" Era of 2019 and 2017! Hitting stats were down across the board in 2024, despite there being more contact in the game. The only improved category was stolen bases. Batting average, runs, homers and even doubles and triples were all down. This despite a decent reduction in league-wide strikeout rates from 8.61 per team game down to 8.48, and walks dropping from 3.25 to 3.07. In short, hitters were putting the ball in play more and doing less with it.

Batting Average

This is the first category that really caught my eye. Teams aren't allowed to employ the extreme shifts that they did prior to the 2023 season, and that was supposed to help improve hitters' success on balls in play. For one year at least it looked like it was working, with batting averages improving by five points both league-wide and across various fantasy league percentile targets. But all those gains were wiped out last season, with levels reverting back to their same paltry 2022 ways.

Were major league defenses like the velociraptors in Jurassic Park, learning to overcome the new restraints? Did nature find a way? Or is there something else at work? Wading into the Statcast data a little bit (I'm a little behind the curve in mastering all of this), I didn't find a smoking gun:

The way I read this, Barrel % is down as is hard hit rate, but not massively so, and moreover, one would think that if there were a real issue with the ball, one would think that players would be getting lesser results with the same exit velocity. Feel free to explain to me how I'm wrong on this interpretation, as you're probably right!

How do we use this information? I think it's paramount to pay close attention to this category. I haven't been hyper-vigilant enough in the past. I've been actively trying to avoid low-average high at-bat hitters when possible - for instance, choosing Marcell Ozuna or Brent Rooker over Kyle Schwarber when presented with that choice. In AL Tout Wars this weekend, I highlighted hitters over a similar OBP benchmark for all hitters. It's not that I won't draft a hitter projected to hit below .255, but you really have to understand what rostering what average sink will do to your entire squad. I'm not going to draft a roster full of Luis Arraez types, but I might actually get him or Steven Kwan when I am carrying a low-average slugger elsewhere.

Runs

Runs scored dropped off, though not quite to the extent that batting average fell down to 2022 levels. I wonder if the increase in stolen bases and more aggressive sends in other base running situations due to the new rules has mitigated the runs falloff compared to other categories? Last year in the NFBC 15-team Main Event, each hitting spot (assuming 14 active hitting roster slots) needed to average 74 runs scored to reach the 80th percentile, as opposed to 77 runs per slot in 2023.

Home Runs

Similar to runs scored, HR production declined in our fantasy category targets, but not down to 2022 levels. We needed 20.6 homers per 15-team roster slot to hit our 80th percentile in the Main Event last season, down from 21.78 in 2023. I can't predict what will happen to the ball this year, but there are three ballpark changes that are likely to help lift the league-wide homer rate. The Athletics are playing in Sacramento for the next three seasons instead of Oakland, the Rays are playing in Steinbrenner Field in Tampa with The Trop damaged from Hurricane Milton, and the Orioles moved in the left field walls after pushing them back two seasons ago.

All three changes should significantly improve the home run factors in home games for these respective teams (and their opponents!), and in the case of Oakland, we should see batting average changes given the massive swaths of foul territory in Oakland Coliseum.

RBI

Usually changes in league-wide targets in RBI correlate with league-wide changes in runs, and our experience in 2024 reflects that. To hit the 80th percentile in RBI in the 2024 Main Event we needed 71 RBI per hitting slot, down from 75 per game in 2023.

Stolen Bases

Stolen bases were the one offensive category on the rise in 2024. Could the rise here compared to the decline in other categories reflect that the roster composition of MLB teams have changed to reflect the new rules? Will we see major league teams emphasize more speed and defense in their roster building? Is a player like Chandler Simpson becoming more acceptable to roster, instead of becoming the next Billy Hamilton? Will I ask another rhetorical question in this paragraph?

It's becoming increasingly important to go and get our speed somewhere in drafts, and while the current trend is to find it later in drafts or on the waiver wire, I'm not sure how easy it will be to find the next Xavier Edwards on the waiver wire - despite many attempts of trying to do so in some of my early drafts this year!

In last year's article, I listed the top 10 finishers in the Main Event in stolen bases and concluded that overall success didn't necessarily correlate with dominating the category. In the interest of full disclosure, suffice to say that conclusion didn't hold up:
 

The top three teams in stolen bases, plus the 12th, 14th and 50th overall finishers finished in the top 10 in stolen bases! I suppose when three of the stolen base leaders are also among the top fantasy players (Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz), that tracks.

As always, most of this data is backward looking, and the conclusions here are more to help you figure out your process. I'll have a similar pitching category targets shortly. Good luck in your final drafts!