Lineup Lowdown: American League

Lineup Lowdown: American League

This article is part of our Lineup Lowdown series.

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: We're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Baltimore Orioles

-- Since Cedric Mullins (groin) went down last week, it's been Adam Frazier elevated to the leadoff spot for each of the Orioles' last five games. It's a big boost for the immediate outlook of Frazier, who has mostly hit in the 5-8 range this season. All five contests have been versus righties, and we figure to see Frazier move down lower in the order versus southpaws. Frazier has been fairly potent from a counting stats perspective this season with six homers and six steals, although his OPS on the season sits at just .691 following a 6-for-38 stretch in his last 10 games. Still, he could be pretty useful in fantasy while he's at the top of the Baltimore lineup, and it sounds like Mullins could be a out a while. As for center field, former Yankee Aaron Hicks started there each of the last four contests and has gotten off to a nice start at the plate for the O's.

-- Austin Hays has done quite a bit of leading off versus lefties this season and is the obvious candidate to hit there when Frazier moves down. Hays has batted cleanup in each of his last four starts, with

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: We're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Baltimore Orioles

-- Since Cedric Mullins (groin) went down last week, it's been Adam Frazier elevated to the leadoff spot for each of the Orioles' last five games. It's a big boost for the immediate outlook of Frazier, who has mostly hit in the 5-8 range this season. All five contests have been versus righties, and we figure to see Frazier move down lower in the order versus southpaws. Frazier has been fairly potent from a counting stats perspective this season with six homers and six steals, although his OPS on the season sits at just .691 following a 6-for-38 stretch in his last 10 games. Still, he could be pretty useful in fantasy while he's at the top of the Baltimore lineup, and it sounds like Mullins could be a out a while. As for center field, former Yankee Aaron Hicks started there each of the last four contests and has gotten off to a nice start at the plate for the O's.

-- Austin Hays has done quite a bit of leading off versus lefties this season and is the obvious candidate to hit there when Frazier moves down. Hays has batted cleanup in each of his last four starts, with the slumping Ryan Mountcastle batting sixth in three of his last four starts. Mountcastle hasn't had a multi-hit game in three weeks.

Boston Red Sox

-- Enrique Hernandez has been the Red Sox' primary shortstop this season, with his 40 starts at the position representing nearly four times as many as anyone else on the team. However, when or if he plays short again looks to be up in the air, as he's seemed to develop the yips, which has given the club no other choice but to relegate him to center field versus lefties for the time being. Pablo Reyes is the only other to play shortstop for the Red Sox since the start of May and could become the regular there, although Christian Arroyo is also an option.

-- It's going to be interesting to see how the Red Sox navigate the center field situation when Adam Duvall (wrist) returns later this week. Jarren Duran has struggled at the plate lately after a terrific start, but he received a vote of confidence from manager Alex Cora on Monday barely more than a week after the skipper gave a vote of confidence to Triston Casas. Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida will remain at the corner outfield spots, at least against righties, and if Casas sticks around Justin Turner will continue to soak up the DH at-bats. Duvall went an absurd 15-for-33 with four home runs in eight games before getting hurt.

New York Yankees

-- It hasn't been by design, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa is suddenly an everyday player for the Yankees again, having started nine straight contests. Each of the last two and three of the last four have come in center field, and with Harrison Bader (hamstring) and Greg Allen (hip) out at least a few weeks, IKF looks to be in line to see the bulk of the starts in center for a bit. He's actually started to hit a bit the last few weeks, too, sporting an .878 OPS with three homers, 12 RBI and a stolen base across his last 15 tilts.

-- Also becoming a regular by necessity – at least against right-handed pitching – has been Jake Bauers with five straight starts versus righties. The 27-year-old has been hot-and-cold since the Yankees decided to give him a look following a big start to the year in the minors, but he's been in the midst of one of the hotter stretches recently with three home runs and a couple doubles across his last six games. The Yanks would like to give Giancarlo Stanton more run in the outfield eventually, but he's limited to DH duty for now as he eases back into action. Bauers might be forced to the bench or off the roster when Stanton is cleared for the outfield, although potentially complicating matters is the uncertain status of Aaron Judge (toe).

Tampa Bay Rays

-- The Rays' position player group has been a little banged up lately. While Wander Franco (hamstring) returned to action Monday and Jose Siri (shoulder) has avoided the IL so far, Brandon Lowe (back) was not as lucky. Isaac Paredes would figure to play a bit more consistently while Lowe is sidelined. Even as Paredes has had a fine season, he's gone through stretches where he's been out of the lineup fairly often, including sitting five of the nine contests prior to Lowe's injury. Vidal Brujan replaced Lowe on the roster and started at second base Monday. His fantasy shine wore off a while ago, though, and the Rays don't seem to have a ton of trust in him.

-- With Franco and Brandon Lowe out of the lineup Sunday, Josh Lowe batted second. On Monday, with Franco back, he hit third. It's the first time this season he's hit in either spot. Lowe batted leadoff a few times in May, but he's spent more time in the sixth spot this season than anywhere else. Perhaps that changes while the other Lowe is out. No, Josh has still not started a game against a left-hander this season.

Toronto Blue Jays

-- Even with Danny Jansen (groin) on the shelf, Alejandro Kirk has still been given three days off in the last 11 contests. He entered play Monday batting .379 over that span, although all of his hits have been singles. That's been a theme for Kirk this year, as he's managed just two home runs (none since May 1) and four doubles. Coming into the season, one of the major marks in Kirk's favor is that he figured to serve as a designated hitter fairly often when not catching. That's not really the case anymore, though, as he's been at DH just once over the last month.

-- More than half of Daulton Varsho's last 16 starts (nine) have come from the seven spot in the lineup, and the Blue Jays have faced just one left-hander over that stretch. Prior to this, he had hit lower than fifth only twice all season. Varsho's counting stats have been just fine and his strikeouts are actually down a bit. The extreme pull-heavy approach he had in 2022 has carried over in 2023, but so far he's not getting the same results.

Chicago White Sox

-- Elvis Andrus returned from the IL on Friday, but Romy Gonzalez still started two of three games at second base against the Tigers – Andrus did start one other at third base. Gonzalez put up a .983 OPS while Andrus was out and had a stretch last week when he went deep in three straight contests. The 26-year-old boasts a 91.9 mph average exit velocity and 15.7 percent barrel rate this season, but his plate discipline is so bad (35 percent strikeout rate, 1.3 percent walk rate) that it won't matter.

-- Five of Andrew Vaughn's last six starts have come from the No. 6 spot and the other came in the five hole. This is the same guy who batted either second or third almost exclusively through mid-May. With a .375/.447/.688 batting line, two home runs and four doubles across his last nine contests, perhaps it's time Vaughn's scoots back up in the batting order. Andrew Benintendi hasn't been terrible lately, but he certainly doesn't look worthy of the second spot in the lineup which he seems to have locked down versus right-handers.

Cleveland Guardians

-- Mike Zunino and Cam Gallagher have split the playing time at catcher right down the middle, literally alternating starts for each of the last 11 contests. It's been a historically bad catching duo from an offensive perspective, but as I've mentioned in this space before, manager Terry Francona has cared very little about offense at catcher as long as his guys are handling the pitching staff to his satisfaction. Bo Naylor, by the way, is batting .346/.528/.692 with two homers over his last eight contests at Triple-A Columbus and overall has a .907 OPS with 11 dingers there for the season.

-- Gabriel Arias has started 12 of the last 15 games and made starts at four different positions over that stretch. Part of that has been because of injuries or guys going on paternity leave, but Arias has made some starts in right field during that span against right-handed pitching even as he's supposed to be the short side of a platoon there. The strong side of the platoon, Will Brennan, is coming off his most productive (only productive?) week of the season.

Detroit Tigers

-- Akil Baddoo is showing some real signs of progress, going into play Monday with a nice .269/.374/.436 batting line with three home runs and four stolen bases in 27 games since the beginning of May. Baddoo has always been able to draw walks, but he's taken it to another level this year with an elite 14.2 percent walk rate in addition to cutting his strikeout rate to a very palatable 20 percent. Manager A.J. Hinch has noticed, inserting Baddoo in at either second or third in the Tigers' lineup for their last five contests. Granted, that span coincides with Riley Greene (leg) going down.

-- The Tigers' collection of "talent" at second and third base is laughably bad, which is certainly a major reason why Nick Maton continues to get regular playing time at those two spots in addition to DH. He's started nine of the last 10 games and entered play Monday ranking behind only Spencer Torkelson, Javier Baez and Green in plate appearances, even as he sports a .590 OPS. All but two of Maton's starts during the aforementioned span have come in the five spot (and he hit sixth the other two times).

Kansas City Royals

-- Bobby Witt's "demotion" to sixth in the Royals' lineup lasted all of one game. After hitting cleanup for five contests, he's been in the No. 2 spot four each of the last four tilts. He's not well suited to bat toward the top of the lineup given his poor on-base skills, but Witt has been one of the unluckier players in baseball this season if you go by wOBA (.297) versus xwOBA (.347), with his 50-point gap representing the 11th-highest among 260 batted-ball qualifiers.

-- Nick Pratto has assumed everyday leadoff duties for Kansas City, occupying the spot in 10 of his last 11 starts. That includes three straight games against southpaws for the left-handed batter. Pratto came into action Monday with a .930 OPS this season versus lefties. Strikeouts are a problem for the 24-year-old, but he draws a bunch of walks and his hard-hit and barrel rates have both been above average. Pratto is predominantly settling in in left field, making the occasional start at first base on days Vinnie Pasquantino is at DH.

Minnesota Twins

-- With Joey Gallo (hamstring) landing on the injured list, Jorge Polanco has been used in the leadoff spot since returning from an IL stint of his own. Batting directly behind Polanco for two of those contests has been Royce Lewis, who has hit either there or third for his last three games. Five of Lewis' six starts since being activated have come at third base, with Kyle Farmer serving as the fill in for the banged-up Carlos Correa (heel) at shortstop. Lewis has already gone deep twice.

-- Willi Castro has been in the lineup for 15 of the last 18 tilts, making starts in left field, center field, second base and third base over that span. He's also hitting .323/.349/.548 amidst that stretch, popping four home runs while going 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts. It's already a new career high in steals for Castro, who has always been fast (89th percentile sprint speed) but never been much of a base stealer. Especially with the Twins being banged up, Castro should continue to play regularly. He's got quad eligibility on Yahoo.

Houston Astros

-- Manager Dusty Baker's love for splitting up his right- and left-handed batters (no, he's not alone there) has led to him sliding Jeremy Pena up to the two spot in the batting order. It's good news for Pena, who has batted sixth for most of this season. It's bad news for the struggling Jose Abreu, who is now hitting sixth himself after spending most of the first six weeks in the cleanup spot.

-- Jake Meyers has seemingly emerged as Baker's preferred option in center field, starting 14 games there to Chas McCormick's seven since the latter returned from a back injury back on May 14. McCormick has actually made more starts overall during that span, though, having made an additional eight starts between left field, right field and DH. He's gone deep three times in his last six contests and remains the superior fantasy play, although neither he nor Meyers are recommended outside of deep leagues.

Los Angeles Angels

-- Taylor Ward went through a stretch not long ago when he started just three of eight games. He's resurfaced with six straight starts, though, going 10-for-26 with a couple longballs during that span. Meanwhile, Mickey Moniak has been on the bench for each of the last four contests and five of the last six, as he's yet to see any action in June following a 1.034 OPS in May.

-- Ward has been in the cleanup spot the last three times out as manager Phil Nevin tried Brandon Drury in the three hole and Shohei Ohtani at leadoff. It's a boost for Drury, who has batted fifth or sixth for much of the season. He's up to 10 dingers on the season after putting up a 1.064 OPS with three home runs across his last 13 tilts. Drury could be moved back down the order, though, with Anthony Rendon (groin) slated for activation Tuesday or Wednesday.

Oakland Athletics

-- The wind has come out of Brent Rooker's sails. He's been out of the lineup for three of the last seven contests and came into action Monday having produced just a .392 OPS across his previous 19 games. He batted fifth in a game over the weekend, which is the first time he's hit lower than third since April 22. Rooker's strikeout rate has jumped to 38 percent over that span and his quality of contact has started to trail off a bit.

-- Five out of the last seven starts at third base for the A's have gone to Jonah Bride. Jace Peterson made those other two starts at the hot corner, along with an additional three at second base. Bride has been excellent the last two seasons at the launching pad of Triple-A Las Vegas and has always had a terrific eye at the dish. His power is very modest, though, and he's not a base stealer. He's also 27.

Seattle Mariners

-- The Mariners chose to add Mike Ford to the major-league roster this past Friday rather than lose him after he opted out of his minor-league contract. The 30-year-old suddenly looks like the favorite to start at DH against right-handed pitching, having occupied the spot in both instances over the weekend. Ford has popped 20 homers in 474 career plate appearances and was destroying the ball at Triple-A Tacoma. Granted, when you're 30 and seeing Triple-A pitching for the sixth season, you should be crushing.

-- After opening the season predominantly hitting fourth or fifth, Teoscar Hernandez has mostly been relegated to the seventh spot in Seattle's lineup as he struggles to gain traction with his new team. Plate discipline has never been Hernandez's forte, but he's sitting on a 33.3 percent strikeout rate and 3.7 percent walk rate. The 30-year-old is still hitting the ball plenty hard, though, and even though the production on the whole hasn't been there, he still has nine dingers and 30 RBI.

Texas Rangers

-- Mitch Garver didn't start his first game back from the injured list, but he's started three straight since then at DH and went deep in his first game back in the lineup following nearly a two-month absence. Jonah Heim has clearly emerged as the Rangers' primary catcher and Sandy Leon is also still on the roster. That might not be such a bad thing for Garver, though, as it allows him to see regular at-bats at DH while still retaining (hopefully) catcher eligibility. The biggest loser upon Garver's return has been Robbie Grossman, who has been on the bench three times in four games.

-- Also squeezing playing time out of Grossman will be Ezequiel Duran, who just returned himself over the weekend from an oblique injury. He was seeing lots of DH duty before getting hurt, but Duran has started two of three games in left field since his return and that could be where he'll set up shop moving forward.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Boyer
Ryan has been writing about fantasy baseball since 2005 for Fanball, Rotoworld, Baseball Prospectus and RotoWire.
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