This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Mexico Series MLB Best Bet, April 27
Major League Baseball is headed back to Mexico City for another installment of the Mexico Series. This is the second international series this season and the second of three overall, so we have to make a play for this game, right? The Dodgers and Padres played in Seoul to start the season in March, and the Phillies and Mets will play in London in June for the last installment of the 2024 international series.
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This current series includes the Colorado Rockies and the Houston Astros for a two-game series at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu in Mexico City. The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres played each other in this stadium last year and it was the first time a Major League Baseball game was played at the stadium. The stadium will play a bit like Coors Field, as it is actually about 7,000 feet above sea level compared to 5,000 where Coors Field is. When the Giants and Padres played last season, the first game was a hitter's paradise as the final score was 16-11. However, the scoring slowed down in the second game and there were only 10 runs total. There have been three other MLB series in Mexico, but they were all played in Monterrey.
The Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros will face off for two games in Mexico City, and Cal Quantrill will be facing Ronel Blanco in the first game. Both of these pitchers have been pitching well. Cal Quantrill has pitched three straight quality starts now with two of those starts being at altitude at Coors Field, so the altitude has not affected him in his first year on the Rockies so far. Ronel Blanco has made four starts this season, now in his third year, and all he has done is dominate. He pitched a no-hitter in his first start of the season against the Blue Jays at home in just 105 pitches. He followed that up with six innings of one-hit baseball in his second start against the Rangers, and that was on the road. He has pitched a quality start in each of his last two games as well, allowing just two runs in six innings in each start. If there has been a weakness with him, it has been his walks, with multiple walks in each of his first four outings this season. However, they haven't come back to bite him just yet. Maybe this is where he finally blows up considering the circumstances, but hitting Major League pitching is still hard regardless of where the game is played.
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Both of these teams have seriously struggled to start this season, and I wonder if this series could be a catalyst to get either of them going. The Rockies are 7-19 on the season and they have lost seven of their last 10 games. They are better at home at 5-8, although this won't necessarily be a home game for them. However, I do think the Rockies will have an advantage in terms of being acclimated with the altitude. They are used to playing in thin air so their bodies are already acclimated to it. They are also traveling to Mexico City after a homestand so they have been playing at altitude for a week or so now. The Rockies are just 1-8 against teams above .500, too. However, this is the rare occasion in the past few years where the Astros are actually under .500. They are 7-19 this season and they have now lost five games in a row. They have lost eight of their last 10 games and they have only won two series the entire season. This is not your typical Astros team that we have grown used to the past seven seasons or so.
Both these teams actually hit righties decently well, as they are ranked 14th and 15th in the league, respectively, in wOBA against righties. Both have had struggling bullpens as well. It makes a bit more sense for the Rockies to have a bad bullpen because they play half their games at altitude, but the Astros have just had multiple underperforming relievers and it's caused them to have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in the league. However, both bullpens will be totally rested and available after the off day for travel yesterday. But I want to avoid these two bullpens altogether, I think anything can happen once the bullpens are in with the altitude and with how bad both have been. So with that being said, my favorite play here is a contrarian play. I really like fewer than 8.5 runs to be scored in the first five innings. As I mentioned, both starters have pitched very well this season, and Cal Quantrill has proven he can even pitch well at altitude. This line is super high because of the altitude and I think the public will be all over the over because they will see that the game will play like Coors Field. However, if we look back at the history of MLB played in Mexico, 10 of the 13 games played have come in under the listed total today. I am going to play contrarian today, and it will be very sweaty, but I like the under in this game.
BEST BET
Rockies Astros First 5 Innings Under 8.5 -110 (Draftkings)
