MLB Barometer: Rougned Rising in Texas

A few random notes as we head into the last two months of the season.

• I've purposely avoided writing up Yasiel Puig in the Barometer this year. Even a visit to the Fallers section can't motivate him. I voice my displeasure with Puig on Twitter frequently because I can't believe a guy with so much talent can't figure out how to be a positively contributing major league ballplayer. From all accounts, Puig is arrogant, immature and unwilling to work on his game. For goodness' sake, the guy has yet to hit 20 home runs in the majors. After vowing this February to avoid him in drafts at all costs, I ended up with a couple shares because he was a "value" at depressed ADPs. It turns out his recent fracas was incorrectly reported, but it still doesn't change my opinion that the Dodgers won't end their 28-year World Series drought as long as he's on the roster. #PuigGoAway

• One of our biggest mistakes in 12-team leagues is holding on to players because of name recognition or because we're waiting for them to "earn" the draft slot we paid for them. Three names that come to mind are Brett Lawrie, Josh Harrison and Michael Conforto. These are dime-a-dozen players in 12-teamers, and it's good to recognize when to cut bait. Lawrie's 12 homers and seven stole bases aren't bad, but it took me four months and a DL trip to realize just how unhelpful he has been. The writing was on the wall for Harrison to have a big season. He does have 14 SB, but started to slump mid-summer and fell to consistently hitting seventh in the Pirates' lineup. It feels like I allowed both Lawrie and Harrison's multi-position eligibility to overshadow their actual contribution to my teams. I've cut bait on both and don't think I'll regret it. As for Conforto, I thought I was slick picking him up a week before his promotion back to the big club last month. He has a bright future still, but the Mets won't give him a chance to hit lefties yet. It's hard to put a player into your lineup who only plays a few times per week and can't get into a rhythm.

• Stolen bases are such a slippery category. Last season, 30 players stole 20 or more bases. This season, only 10 of those rank among the top 30. Here's the list with last season's total in parenthesis:

Starling Marte - 36 (30)
Billy Hamilton - 35 (57)
Jose Altuve - 25 (38)
Jean Segura - 18 (25)
Mookie Betts - 17 (21)
Jacoby Ellsbury - 17 (21)
Jarrod Dyson - 16 (26)
Billy Burns - 14 (26)
Charlie Blackmon - 13 (43)
Brett Gardner - 13 (20)

The clear faller of the group is Blackmon, who is way off pace from last year's total. Other notable drops from their 2015 output include Lorenzo Cain (7 this year, 28 in 2015), Anthony Rizzo (3 this year, 17 in 2015) and Manny Machado, who stole 20 bags last year and has been caught stealing on all three of his attempts this year. Conversely, Eduardo Nunez stole eight on 12 attempts last season and is 28 for 34 this season. Veteran speedsters Rajai Davis and Melvin Upton have 25 and 20, respectively. Wil Myers is in the midst of a fantasy MVP season and has swiped 19 to go with 21 homers. And waiver-wire darlings Hernan Perez and Travis Jankowski should easily hit the 25-SB mark.

Meanwhile, Mike Trout is running more frequently as he promised us in spring training (17 this year, 11 last year). Same with fellow first-rounder Bryce Harper, who has far exceeded last season's six bags with 15 this season with two months to go.

This rundown is a solid refresher about the value of guys like Betts and Marte. Good hitters in productive lineups in the prime of their careers who produce across the fantasy board. No matter whether they end up with more HR or SB from year to year, these are the safer early round picks we should target with confidence. This exercise also reminds to stay sharp on waiver wires and FAAB as quite often the stolen base contributor your team needs was not selected at the draft table.

RISERS

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX)

He is only 22, yet Odor is quickly developing into a star. Fantasy-wise, we're talking about a player we might end up calling a "safe" second-rounder in drafts next spring. This spring, Odor was the eighth second baseman drafted (94.07 ADP) in NFBC leagues and has outplayed almost all of the guys taken ahead of him. Jose Altuve is the clear stud there and one can easily argue he's been more fantasy-valuable than veteran Robinson Cano. It's wild to think that Odor was the youngest regular in an MLB lineup at age 20 two season ago, promoted straight from Double-A. Odor had a rough start to his sophomore campaign, hitting .141 with one homer and one steal before getting demoted in early May 2015. He made adjustments at Triple-A Round Rock and got the call June 15, hitting .292 with 15 HR from that point on. His 5x5 numbers through the first four months of the season are outstanding. He hit another three home runs last week, putting him at 21, and has stolen 10 bases, on pace for 30/15. His 21 percent strikeout rate is roughly five points higher than last season's rate. His biggest issue as a hitter continues to be his inability to manufacture free passes – just nine this season for a paltry rate of 2.2 percent. It has cost him the opportunity to lead off or hit higher in the lineup in general. So for now, he flashes his pop as the Rangers' best power not named Desmond hitting out of the five-slot (though let's see how the Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy acquisitions shift things). Odor is a joy to watch. On Friday night, he crushed a first-inning moonshot off Royals' starter Edinson Volquez and followed that with another bomb off behemoth 6-foot-7 reliever Brian Flynn in the seventh. Unfortunately for me, I ended up with zero shares of Odor across seven season-long teams. My plan of "Altuve or wait" has worked out for the most part, as I targeted and drafted middle-round rebound vets on good teams like Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist. But I got lucky there, and I acknowledge that every position brings new strategy each and every season. As for Odor, consider him an easy second-round pick in drafts next season as a top-three 2B. The walks issue is one that he will figure out in time, hopefully. After all, Odor is, again, just 22. He has all the time in the world.

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD)

At this point in his career, it's fair to assume we know exactly what type of hitter Grandal is. The good is that he's a switch hitter, who can connect from either side of the plate when he's in a groove. This man knows how to get on base, as illustrated by an elite 14.3 walk-rate over the course of his five-year career. Grandal also has power. He can finally get to the 20-HR mark this season after falling short last season when a mid-season injury spiraled him into a prolonged slump. The bad is that Grandal is also a hacker. His 22.5 percent strikeout rate seems modest if you get the chance to watch him in action often. So what does that make him at a position that offers the least amount of offensive production? An easy member of the top 10. He ranks seventh on the NFBC player rater despite a roto-crushing .220 batting average. I also believe Grandal is just starting to heat up. From this point, the only catchers I'd rather have on my roster are Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Wilson Ramos, Salvador Perez and J.T. Realmuto. Just remember this: if the Dodgers rid themselves of Yasiel Puig via demotion to Triple-A (a trade didn't happen, unfortunately), some instant good mojo will come their way. That, along with adding Rich Hill to the rotation and hopefully getting Clayton Kershaw back should propel a productive stretch run into scaring fellow National League teams in the postseason. Watch out.

Scooter Gennett (2B, MLW)

So why is Gennett on our radars in 12-team leagues and could it be yet another mirage? Well, the answer is in the splits. The 26-year-old lefty is a good defender but was always part of a platoon in Milwaukee because of his inability to hit southpaws. In fact, just one walk and 14 hits against them in 114 plate appearances scattered over three seasons prior to 2016. He must have gone to the "Lucas Duda School for Hitting Lefties" in spring, because Gennett has two homers, nine walks is hitting .281 with a .370 OBP against them, albeit in a small sample of 73 plate appearances. Gennett had a nice June, getting on base at a .390 clip, knocking in 14 runs with three homers, two stolen bases and a .322 average. In July, Gennett knocked in 13 runs with two homers and four stolen bases. Gennett has become a full-time player, batting second against righties and in the middle of the order against lefties. He ranks 14th on the NFBC player rater ahead of the likes of Logan Forsythe, Brett Lawrie, Joe Panik and Howie Kendrick. Taking a few minutes to study this list is more telling of the lack of production at second base overall this year than the contributions of Scooter. He's someone you should own in NL-only and 15-teamers and is a streamer for good RHP matchups for 12-team leagues.

Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX)

One of the worst feelings in fantasy is when you're extremely patient with a hitter, but finally kick him to the curb before his offensive explosion. The case with Moreland is just a bit different since he has been sitting unclaimed on 12-team wires for a few weeks now, and rightly so. Last week was indeed a doozy for the 30-year-old lefty. He was the hottest slugger in baseball, crushing five home runs over his last six games. Moreland has had a quiet season, hitting just .248 from the lower-third of the first-place Rangers lineup for most of the season. He is just five shy of his career-high 23 homers in a season and is boasting a career-high .221 ISO. Conversely, his 24 percent strikeout rate is also a career high. The one nice thing about the oft-injured Moreland is that he has stayed off the disabled list this year. He was one of my longshot late-round 30-HR predictions, but it looks like he will fall short of that number this season. He likely didn't cost bidders too much this weekend with so many nice options like Alex Bregman and David Dahl securing our focus in FAAB. If you're buying, now is the time to have him. In the midst of a hot streak with a home-and-home series against the Rockies coming up in Week 19. He's a must-own in AL-only and 15-team formats, but if you're relying on him weekly in 12-teamers besides some occasional streaming, chances are your roto team has other problems.

Aaron Altherr (OF, PHI)

Unfortunately, many of us missed the chance to snag Altherr on the cheap in FAAB this weekend as he returned from a four-month layoff with a bang. In his season debut, Altherr launched a Matt Wisler cheeseball into the stands and finished the game 3-for-4 with two runs and two RBI. He was hitless in his remaining 12 at-bats against the Braves, but the emergence of a fresh face with potential, hitting in the middle of an above-average lineup, was enough to send his bid prices skyrocketing. Altherr was picked up for an average of $54 in my five NFBC RotoWire Online Championship 12-team leagues in a crazy Sunday of bidding that featured rookies Bregman and Dahl, closer Tony Watson and starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs. Altherr was never a huge prospect. He was drafted in the ninth round in 2009 and spent six seasons in the Phillies' minor league system. He made his major league debut in 2014 but appeared in just two games. Last season, he was promoted to the big club in mid-August and flashed some of his five-tool offerings, scoring 25 runs with five homers and six stolen bases in 161 plate appearances. What to expect from Altherr? Probably a bit more of the same. He has improved his plate patience the last couple seasons and should get on base at a .350 or greater clip. Enough to offer low double-digit stolen bases over the final nine weeks. He can hit five to 10 home runs, as well. Altherr will also probably strike out in about a quarter of his at-bats. At the very least, fantasy owners should expect to see his name on the lineup card as the starting right fielder almost every day. For DFS players, he's a dirt cheap salary saver who will help get your big bats in.

Tyler Skaggs (SP, LAA)

Perhaps you were in the same boat as me this weekend. Rooting for the Red Sox to hang a few on Skaggs on Sunday. Not for any reason but for our own selfishness -- to keep his price reasonable for Sunday FAAB. Skaggs' first start since falling victim to Tommy John surgery in August 2014 was brilliant. He threw seven scoreless innings of three-run ball and five strikeouts in a 13-0 win against the Royals in Kaufmann. All we needed to keep him somewhat under the radar and at an affordable bid price was for the Red Sox to rough him up a bit. Instead, Skaggs shut them down, whiffing eight on 97 pitches. Surely we'll never know how much Skaggs would have gone for in the NFBC RotoWire OC's had he not pitched so well. Instead, he was picked up in almost every one of them (more than 100 leagues) with an average bid price of more than $50 and a high bid of $188. I snagged one share for $26, outbidding a leaguemate by a dollar. It's a shame for the rest of my teams that could have used a starter of his pedigree. Skaggs was a highly touted prospect of the Diamondbacks as he rose through the minors along with Trevor Bauer. Skaggs was actually the eighth overall pick of the Angels in the 2009 before getting shipped to the Dbacks. He works primarily off a 92 mph fastball (averaging 92.7 over his first two starts) as well as a cutter and a change. Skaggs is now two years removed from surgery and pitched well over seven starts in the minors, maintaining a 1.67 WHIP with a 36 percent strikeout rate. It will be interesting to watch his outings from now until the end of the season so we can begin to gauge where his ADP may fell next spring. If you picked him up this week, kudos to you and enjoy the ride.

Tony Cingrani (RP, CIN)

Well, look at that. Tony Cingrani, major league closer. It all makes sense now. Cingrani was a great strike thrower in the minors. Not a flamethrower per se, as his fastball never averaged more than 94 mph. The Reds drafted him in the third round in 2011 and Cingrani carried a strikeout rate of more than 30 percent as he barreled his way through the minors. He came up for a brief stint in 2012 and was called up to join the rotation in the third week of April 2013. He threw three fantastic outings that month, whiffing 28 batters in 18 innings and allowing just three earned runs. His numbers came back down to earth for a bit but at the end of the season, the numbers looked outstanding: a 120:43 K:BB with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 104 IP (17 starts). This sparked an incessant hype train the following summer causing many a fantasy owner to fall for a high ADP trap. Cingrani was selected as a top-30 starting pitcher for the 2014 season with an ADP in the eighth round of 15-teamers. In some cases, Cingrani was drafted among the top-100 overall. Cingrani finished that season with a 4.55 ERA and a seven-point drop in his strikeout rate, down to 22 percent. The new and improved Cingrani is now one of the few southpaw closers in the league. With J.J. Hoover, one of the league's worst pitchers as the incumbent, it was only a matter of time before someone new took over, and Cingrani was one of the first considered. He notched his first save May 6 and blew three saves that month before finally settling down. Cingrani's low save total (13) is due in part to his delayed start, but mostly due to the fact that the Reds just aren't a good offense and rarely put him in position for one. Cingrani K-rate has dipped to 18 percent, but that's fine as long as he's getting the job done. Some have called for the electric Raisel Iglesias to close games, but it might just be best to use him in the multi-inning relief role while allowing Cingrani to close. None of us really know what the future holds for the Reds, and specifically their bullpen. For now, Cingrani is the guy. He has earned the job and should keep it for the duration of the season.

FALLERS

Randal Grichuk (OF, STL)

Just go to my Twitter timeline (@RotoGut) around the first week of July to see how wrong I was about Grichuk. Hey, at least I wasn't drafting him ahead of teammate Stephen Piscotty despite his higher ADP! The fact of the matter is that fixing someone at the plate isn't just a matter of a two-week demotion to Triple-A. It may have worked for Odor last year, but we're talking different ages, skill sets and several other factors in play. Grichuk is what he is, and that's a certified hacker with no penchant for patience. The 2009 first-round draft pick is a pure power hitter. He ranks up there with the Giancarlo Stanton's of the world in terms of exit velocity, but continues to chase balls high in the zone and is a very undisciplined hitter. Although he received some at-bats atop the Cardinals' lineup when he was called back up in early July, Grichuk has been riding pine or coming in as a pinch-hitter much too often lately. Part of the issue is the Cardinals' glut of outfield options. In addition to Piscotty and Matt Holliday, the Cards have often started Tommy Pham and Kolten Wong, as well. When Brandon Moss returns next week, it's quite possible that Grichuk is the one who is sent back down.

Stephen Vogt (C, OAK)

Vogt was the ultimate fantasy bargain last year as a 30th-round pick who finished as a top-5 catcher. The type of stuff roto dreams are built upon. Fast forward a year and there's little positive to be said about his fantasy performance. Due to the lack of production at the position as a whole this year, Vogt ranks as the 13th catcher through four months on the NFBC player rater. A .272 batting average is respectable for the position – he ranks eighth among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. But 30 RBI from the middle of the A's lineup, primarily facing right-handed pitchers, just doesn't cut it. Vogt's 4.9 percent walk rate is nearly half of what it was last season (11 percent), and that is quite obviously one of the issues. Because Vogt doesn't kill the batting average, he is an ideal pick in the later rounds as your second catcher. Vogt could easily get a streak going and knock a few out of the park. He has eight homers; I'll give him seven more from this point on, if we're being generous.

Miguel Sano (3B, MIN)

Sano was one of those players we felt uneasy selecting on draft day. His late fourth-round ADP in 15-team leagues felt like a trap and he ended up falling to the fifth round in the Main Event – the live drafts going for $1,600 a pop. Despite having only a half season of big-league experience, many experts projected Sano to hit 30 or more home runs while carrying a strikeout-rate of at least 30 percent. With only two months to go in the season, Sano has 15 homers and a 35 percent K-rate. Sano homered in four straight games in the final week of May but that momentum slowed on the final day of the month when he hit the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Sano's is batting .241 heading into August. He has been much more effective getting on base against lefties – a .435 OBP against them while just a .308 OBP against right-handed pitchers. He has struck out 11 times in his last four games and was not part of the Twins lineup for the third time in their last five games. Those low-contact, heavy-power guys seem to work when it's a late-rounder like Chris Carter this year or Mark Teixeira last year. It's a different story altogether when you're paying an early round pick for someone like that. It's a good thing to remember when we head into 2017 drafts.

Jaime Garcia (SP, STL)

Garcia has yet to hit the disabled list this season like so many of us predicted. At least we have one positive notion to lean on. Unfortunately for his owners (present company included), 2016 has been a disaster all the way around. In his second start of the season, Garcia shut out with Brewers, striking out 13. A heavy outlier of an outing, but still a good sign for a pitcher with a below-average 19 percent strikeout rate last year. He's had occasional quality starts, but for the most part the bad has outweighed the good. Garcia was a polarizing pitcher in the middle rounds of drafts this year. On one hand, most of us who play roto know that Garcia is usually good when he pitches. We expected a touch of regression this year on his 2.43 ERA in just under 130 innings, but nothing dramatic like his current 4.30. On the other hand, the risk of taking a SP3 or SP4 with such a voluminous injury history was a tough pill to swallow. Garcia's 3.85 xFIP portends to at least a bit of bad luck. His 18.9 percent strikeout rate is on par with last season, but his walk rate has soared – from six percent last year to eight percent this year. That's nearly a full walk per nine innings. Garcia is solid at home (3.68 ERA, .281 wOBA) but is a dangerous pitcher to start on the road (5.04 ERA, .360 wOBA). Unless the 30-year-old southpaw finishes strong down the stretch, he likely will be priced closer to the 300 overall ADP range rather than his 219 ADP from this preseason. The good news here is that he is healthy and will hit the largest inning total he's pitched since 2011. Perhaps that draft day dip will price him in as a 2017 bargain.