This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Expert MLB Picks and Props for Thursday, March 21
YTD 2-2 (-0.1 units)
Prior article 2-2 (-0.1 units)
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San Diego Padres 
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 
The first game of the season is in the books and it went according to plan with not many runs early in the game and a potential for it to explode once it got to the bullpens. But what you cannot count on is something like a groundball to the first baseman going right through the webbing of his glove which opened the flood gates. That is why I preach spread risk and go light early on, especially in this series.
The odds for Game 2 are close to the closing line in Game 1 with the Dodgers -185, total 8.5.
This pitching matchup is much different than yesterday in that I liked it to be low scoring, but these pitchers have shown some warts in the spring. Normally, I would not put a ton of stock in the spring, but these are pretty strong numbers on the bad side.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's spring training line was a mixed bag: 9.2 innings, 14 strikeouts, four walks, 15 hits allowed, nine runs allowed (8.38 ERA, 1.97 WHIP).
Joe Musgrove's spring training line: six innings, seven hits, nine earned runs, four walks, five strikeouts, 1.83 WHIP, 13.50 ERA.
Even though the run scoring came late, the Dodgers put a ton of runners on base with seven hits, nine walks and two errors. They were 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position and left 13 runners on base. The Dodgers' top three hitters — Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — were a combined 4-for-11, two hits, three walks and 1 strikeout, which will be the key to the Dodgers' offense.
I think both pitchers will be on a short leash with a full week off after this game, the bullpen usage will be similar to a postseason game with most pitchers available. Both teams had a combined 9.1 innings from the bullpen. The one wrinkle is Yamamoto being a pitcher the Padres have not seen and his high strikeout numbers in the spring. He could strike out 6-7 batters in just five innings.
There is already talk that both teams could go with another starting pitcher to bridge the gap and soak up some innings.
NOTE THERE WERE NO PITCHER OUT PROPS POSTED AT THE TIME OF THIS ARTICLE, BUT I STRONGLY WANTED TO GO UNDER ON BOTH OF THEM AT 15 OUTS.
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MLB Best Bets for Padres vs. Dodgers
- Yamamoto OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -113)
- Mookie Betts OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
